Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011

Port Moody-Coquitlam

Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 08:38:50

Constituency Profile


Helps, Billie

Monds, Jeff

Reimer, Linda

Trasolini, Joe

Joe Trasolini


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Iain Black*
    Shannon Watkins
    Rebecca Helps
    James Filippelli
    Donna Vandekerkhove


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    13 03 27 GV
    Trasolini performed very well in the by-election. Yes, he probably won't do quite so strongly this time, but that's not the same thing as saying he will lose. The political environment here is similar to what it was a year ago, for the Conservatives never did well in this riding anyway. So I'm not sure what factor is supposed to convince me that the Liberals stand a strong chance of taking away a seat that the NDP have held in the past and performed well in four years ago.
    It's especially puzzling to see this riding called TCTC while Chilliwack-Hope is considered secure for the NDP. I should think logic dictates the opposite set of predictions.
    13 03 24 bza
    Joe Trasolini easily won this riding in an by-election and should hold this riding no problem with the NDP this high in the polls.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    Unless the Liberals make a miracle comeback, this is one that will fall into the NDP column. A close race last time will be tight NDP win this time. If the Conservatives make any impact, the NDP will win going away but a close win seems more likely.
    13 03 07 NO PARTISAN BS
    It is hard to see any opportunity for Liberals to take away any riding won by the NDP in the last election. NDP up, Libs way down.. this is another one in the bag for the NDP.
    13 02 18 Laurence Putnam
    I think this will be a tougher fight than some expect as you can never go on the results of a by-election.
    That being said, former Mayor and now incumbent Trasolini still has a base of 40% to build on from the last general election, with much higher name recognition than that previous candidate, the advantage of incumbency, and representing (what I think will be) the winning party.
    A much tougher contest than the latest by-election numbers would suggest, but altogether, I'd be betting on the NDP here, winning with around 45-47% of the vote.

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