Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011

Powell River-Sunshine Coast

Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 00:39:17

Constituency Profile


Muncaster, Patrick

Simons, Nicholas

Till, Richard Carl

Nicholas Simons


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Nicholas Simons*
    Dawn Miller
    Jeff Chilton
    Allen McIntyre


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    13 04 20 GV
    I fully concur in Laurence Putnam's detailed analysis, with the caveat that I don't think the Greens can surpass the Liberals to take second. They only just nominated their candidate, and he has a very low profile. Simons will probably get something around 60% of the vote.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    The NDP will sweep the Island and the only issues to be decided are the margin of victory and how much the Green vote will grow. Sixty percent plus is likely for the NDP and 65-70 not out of the question.
    13 02 15 Laurence Putnam
    A traditional NDP riding which for years wasn't traditionally NDP.
    Caught up in the Socred sweep of 1986, won by Liberal leader Gordon Wilson in 1991, by Gordon Wilson again in 1996 this time as PDA leader, and caught up in the BC Liberal sweep of 2001, this riding returned to its NDP roots for the first time in 22 years with the election of Simons in 2005. That's a remarkable number of coincidences that could cause the casual observer to believe that there are the makings of a race here. Don't be fooled.
    The demographics of this riding never change much - its a mill town on BC's coast with the usual granola types, fishermen and in this ridings' case a large, well-run and politically active native population. Not to mention a riding heavily reliant on subsidized ferry routes.
    All of that means a very strong NDP result on election day. This time possibly in the 60% range. The more interesting question would be, could the Greens mount a good enough ground effort to vie for second place? Even if that's unlikely, it's still a far more debatable question than who the actual winner will be. Simons by 25 points.

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