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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011

Richmond-Steveston


Prediction Changed
2013-05-14 23:50:10
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Day, Carol

Dickey, Jerome James

Donovan, Mike

Stewart, Scott

Yap, John

Incumbent:
John Yap

Reference:

  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order


    2009 Result:


    John Yap*
    1316860.78%
    Sue Wallis
    592527.35%
    Jeff Hill
    1,4916.88%
    Barry Edward Chilton
    1,0824.99%


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    13 05 05 Matt
    75.157.139.16
    Even with the ethnic outreach scandal, the margin of victory is too much to overcome. Voters also seem to be shrugging off red light-gate (a traffic law violation, the horror!). This should be a fairly easy liberal hold.
    13 05 03 Teddy Boragina
    198.96.35.90
    I'm the guy who comes to this website every election and preaches about ?the math?. Rather than spam a dozen ridings with that, I've decided (given this riding is TCTC for some reason) to explain how the ?math? works this election.
    Given the poll averages to date, and, last election, the math tells us the NDP will - compared to the Liberals - gain 1 new vote for every 2 they had last time. It's simplistic, and it's more complicated than that, but that's the simplest way to explain.
    Thus, using this riding as our example. Last time, the NDP took 5925 votes. ?The math? tells us they will gain 2962.5, or, 2963 votes this election. Add that up and you get 8888 votes. Still 4K votes short of a victory.
    The math however does not tell the whole story. You must start with, not end with that number. You need to make adjustments for every riding if you want the full story.
    In this riding, however, I do not see any reason to make any drastic adjustment, certainly not one worth 4K votes. If someone has a good reason to make an adjustment, however, I am all ears.
    13 05 03 Laurence Putnam
    174.7.209.9
    Why this riding would be doubtful in any way while the other Richmond ridings are being placed in the Liberal camp (and I do agree with those calls) is...confusing. Does the administrator of this site know something we don't? Perhaps just trying to maintain suspense in this snoozefest of an election? (An unenviable task, I must say)
    There was, admittedly, a little bit of fallout over the so-called ethnic outreach scandal but with all the other bizarre antics of Christy's lately, starting with the red light and ending with the bought and paid for front page of the 24, these lesser examples of her ineptitude have long since been forgotten.
    13 04 20 GV
    206.47.117.43
    With the weakest 2009 NDP showing of any Richmond seat, it's surprising to see this one (and no other) called TCTC. In addition, it's worth noting that this riding only voted 55% against the HST, while Richmond Centre and Richmond East both opposed the policy by at least 60%. With the incumbent running again and an obscure NDP candidate opposing him, I see only faint prospects of a change in control of this seat.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    99.253.117.108
    Another riding where the gap is too much to suggest an NDP win. The Liberals should hold this one but with a much reduced margin.



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