Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011

Saanich North and the Islands

Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 08:39:39

Constituency Profile


Holman, Gary

McEachern, Scott

Olsen, Adam

Roberts, Stephen P.

Murray Coell


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Murray Robert Coell*
    Gary Holman
    Tom Bradfield


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    13 05 08
    The Greens are polling 30% on the Island and this is concentrated in the South Island. The NDP Kinder Morgan decision doesn't seem to have convinced these Green votes to go back to the NDP. If anything, that seems to have reinforced the credibility of the Greens to push one of the big parties to change their tune. May's presence here will make this go Green.
    13 05 07 Teddy Boragina
    Wow, I'm shocked to see the Green projections here.
    It's logical, yes, and the arguments are somewhat sound, but there are two problems.
    First, the other riding 'everyone' thinks the Greens have a shot in has been mentioned in various media sources numerous times. Second, the other riding I think the Greens have a shot in has their leader.
    Secondly, provincial or federal success for one party does not translate into success for the other.
    If someone had an outside link pointing to the Greens doing well here, I might be convinced to change my prediction, but as it is, I've seen none of that, and I can not call for a Green win.
    13 05 06 rosesandthorns
    With the advance polls opening in a few days it looks as though the NDP will take this riding. The Green candidate has been riding the coattails of Lizzie May and she is a federal MP, not provincial. She has been campaigning heavily every weekend for Adam, using our tax dollars to fly back and forth to do it. Voters are staying NDP to get rid of the Liberals and not wanting to split the vote and let them still have a chance of keeping this seat.
    13 05 04 Matt
    I think the greens have a decent shot here and oak bay using May's base of support and the NDP vote softening after the debate. The greens continue to poll higher than last election, especially on the island
    13 04 21 NorthSaanich
    This will be closer than most predict...Adam Olsen is making an impressive fight of it with the help of May's ?Green Machine?. The signs on the reserves in the riding also show a possible increase in participation from First Nations voters supporting Olsen. The Liberals will be third. Its a tight race between the NDP and Greens.
    13 04 20 GV
    With Murray Coell's departure, I suspect the Liberal support will atrophy. The NDP did too well last time for the Greens to have any real shot at leapfrogging them. So this seat will be painted orange on the 14th.
    13 04 16 JH
    The Green campaign is going to be all about strategic targeting in this election. I think that they will pull off 1-3 wins on the Island with Saanich North being one of them. If the BG Greens can pull of the same kind of GOTV enthusiasm they had with Elizabeth May in SGI in 2011 I think they could definitely take SN-I and Oak Bay Gordon Head since they intersect with many parts of May's riding.
    With Olsen's strong reputation as a Saanich councillor and a strategically targeted Green campaign I think the BC Greens will pull off an upset in this riding.
    13 04 14 T&DVictoria
    I am not counting out a green close win in this riding. A high population of seniors and sitting Green Member of Parliament could mean a surprise win for the Green Party on May 14
    13 03 27 Laurence Putnam
    Coell read the tealeaves correctly. If the Greens had their act better together provincewide and had the benefit of the excitement they enjoyed in 2001, then who knows. But they don't. Retirement population will still deliver a decent showing here for the Liberals I think, and the Greens will tease but in the end it will be an NDP seat.
    13 03 24 bza
    The NDP narrowly lost this riding last time, expect this to be another pick up in May. The Greens may do better this time, but with the momentum the NDP is having the support of the Greens may not be a factor.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    The NDP will sweep the Island and the only issues to be decided are the margin of victory and how much the Green vote will grow. The Liberals held this by their fingernails last time and they could drop into third this time. How the mighty can fall.
    13 02 05 JKennethY
    The Island will go 100% NDP. The Greens have an outside chance in a seat or two and will finish well ahead of the BC Libs in popular vote. The Conservatives are out of the question

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