Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011

Saanich South

Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 08:39:47

Constituency Profile


Galbraith, Joshua

Kappel, Peter

Mustafovic, Branko

Popham, Lana

Sharma, Rishi

Lana Popham


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Lana Popham
    Robin Adair
    Brian Geoffrey Gordon
    Douglas Christie


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    13 04 20 GV
    Given the low profile of the Green candidate, I doubt very much that this constituency will change hands. Popham's victory last time was closer than I expected, but it was sufficiently large to translate into an impressive margin this time round, given the shifting political winds at the provincial level.
    13 03 27 Laurence Putnam
    I doubt very much the Greens will overtake the Liberals, but I won't contend against the overall consensus here; definitely an NDP hold.
    13 03 14 bza
    This is an incumbent NDP seat in an election where the Island will likely be swept while the Liberals are way down in the polls. A definite hold for the NDP.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    The NDP will sweep the Island and the only issues to be decided are the margin of victory and how much the Green vote will grow. An NDP squeaker will now become a solid win and the Greens might even overtake the Liberals.
    13 02 05 JKennethY
    The Island will go 100% NDP. The Greens have an outside chance in a seat or two and will finish well ahead of the BC Libs in popular vote. The Conservatives are out of the question

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