Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2013-05-14 23:50:36

Constituency Profile


Begley, Matt William

Cadieux, Stephanie

Kooner, Harry

Wu, Howard

Kevin Falcon


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Kevin Falcon*
    Deborah Payment
    Kevin Purton


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    13 04 12 Laurence Putnam
    It was a wise move, figuratively and literally, for Stephanie Cadieux to switch over to Falcon's old riding. Her chances of keeping her former riding were probably less likely than by starting anew in this much more Fraser Valley-style riding which is much better suited to returning the right-wing candidate. While some may balk at the opportunism, Cadieux can easily defend herself being in fact, a resident of the riding.
    The NDP would love to take Falcon's old seat, but a riding which is famous for it's annual rodeo is not NDP territory. As a side note, even in the Social Credit meltdown, the Socreds pulled in 30% here in 1991, while the Liberals won with 40%.
    13 03 27 GV
    One cannot seriously speculate that the government will lose this seat (though they might have if the Conservatives were still viable).
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    The gap is too much for me to call an NDP win here. The Liberals should hold but again if this one falls, send out the search parties for any successful Liberal.

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