Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2013-05-14 23:51:04

Constituency Profile


Hunt, Marvin

Mahil, Amrik

Rakhra, Kevin

Sharma, Sara

Zaidi, Ali

Stephanie Cadieux


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Stephanie Cadieux
    Debbie Lawrance
    Murray Weisenberger


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    13 05 13 Advance Voting Analyst
    Even after Sukh sucked out and Stephanie abandoned Panorama for Cloverdale, the fact remains that the NDP have 14 points to make up against the Liberals compared to four years ago. It appears the provincial swing will be somewhere on the order of half that, or perhaps a bit more.
    The NDP need a bigger swing here than in Prince George-Valemount or Penticton -- that's pretty big. Although the swing may be bigger here, it is likely to fall just short. A ten-point swing is plausible; 14 is pushing it, especially as the Greens are actually running a candidate here (unlike half the other Surrey ridings).
    By how much the NDP can close the remaining gap will depend on:
    a) how much greater the population growth is in the northern (NDP) part of the riding than in the southern (Liberal) part; and
    b) the NDP's ability to improve its showing in the northern polls where the Liberals won easily in 2009.
    Advance poll turnout was nothing special in Surrey-Panorama, whilst in Surrey-Tynehead -- where the NDP look to have a much better chance of closing a 9-point gap from 2009 -- turnout was up.
    Almost everyone else in here seems ready to call this riding NDP, but this may end up being one of the closest races of the night. Look for the Liberals to hang on by a point or two.
    13 04 17 Laurence Putnam
    It was wise for Cadieux to make the switch to Cloverdale. Getting Dhaliwal was a coup that could have made it interesting, but that's over. There is still a decent Liberal/free enterprise base in the riding, but ultimately I think it's a bellwether - and now without an incumbent or a so-called star candidate for the Liberals.
    I agree with GV that the ethnic voting scandal will largely be forgotten by election day, the larger issues will be the overall disillusionment with the Liberals and the overall ascendency of the NDP this time out.
    13 04 05 bza
    Just like with Surrey-Tynehead, I think this is one of the other Surrey ridings that will flip over to the NDP now that the party has a significant lead in the polls.
    13 03 27 GV
    In posting on this riding as well as Tynehead, I neglected to mention the ethnic-voting scandal. Though I think it was a tempest in a teapot, it's hard to believe that it won't put a significant damper on Sikh community support for the government's candidates.
    13 03 27 GV
    Not prepared to shift this riding formally into the NDP column, but it certainly seems as though Sukh Dhaliwal's troubles with CRA have hurt his party's credibility and bolstered that of his opponents. It really isn't traditional NDP territory, and parts of it are very, very conservative. But the margin of victory for the Liberals last time isn't daunting enough to deter me from forecasting a social-democratic win as the more likely outcome under these polling numbers. It's not likely to last more than four years, however.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    Unless the Liberals make a miracle comeback, this is one of those dominoes that will tip into the NDP column. A close race last time will be tight NDP win this time. If the Conservatives make any impact, the NDP will win going away but a close win seems more likely.
    13 02 10 Jack Cox
    It looked like the Liberals were going to hold this with Sukh Dhaliwal until Tax problems caught up with him, Have to believe the BC NDP have the edge here.

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