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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011

Surrey-Tynehead


Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 00:23:57
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Bains, Avtar

Gill, Sukhi

Sikora, Barry J.

Virk, Amrik

Incumbent:
Dave Hayer

Reference:

  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order


    2009 Result:


    Dave Hayer*
    881452.50%
    Pat Zanon
    725743.23%
    Gerald Singh
    7174.27%


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    13 05 13 Advance Voting Analyst
    24.85.70.63
    Turnout for weekday advance voting, though still weak (as is typical for Surrey), suggested Surrey-Tynehead was nonetheless getting a bit of a bump. By contrast, the city's other swing riding, Surrey-Panorama, saw its numbers stagnate more.
    The NDP need to make up a 9-point deficit versus the Liberals compared to 2009. The provincial swing looks to be at or just shy of 9, and Surrey-Tynehead is set to match or exceed the provincial swing. The Greens are not running here so this ought to give the NDP a bit of a cushion, although it will still be a pretty slim margin of victory.
    With the exception of Port Moody-Coquitlam, where the NDP have since been elected in a by-election, this is likely to be the only seat the Liberals won by more than 5% in 2009 that will swing to the NDP in 2013.
    13 04 17 Laurence Putnam
    204.244.83.122
    With the retirement of Dave Hayer, the Liberals lose one of the most underrated MLAs in the province - a very strongly constituent-minded, moderate MLA who seemed to command a lot of quiet respect. If Hayer were running again, this might even be in contention - but I suspect he knows its time to leave on a high note. The coming defeat is going to be tough and this is definitely one of the seats on the bubble.
    Without the Hayer factor, the provincewide numbers become more important, and as we all know the NDP have held a substantial lead in every poll in the last 2 years.
    NDP pick-up.
    13 03 29 bza
    75.152.122.172
    With the NDP polling 20% ahead and with the BC Liberal incumbent not running again, this riding will likely flip over to the NDP.
    13 03 27 GV
    206.47.100.160
    In posting on this riding as well as Panorama, I neglected to mention the ethnic-voting scandal. Though I think it was a tempest in a teapot, it's hard to believe that it won't put a significant damper on Sikh community support for the government's candidates.
    13 03 27 GV
    206.47.100.160
    Dave Hayer is one of the MLA's I most respect, and his departure is a blow to his party in the riding. His replacement, an RCMP officer, likely won't be able to maintain the Liberals' wobbly lead in the face of unfavourable province-wide numbers and an NDP candidate selected with care to represent the business community.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    99.253.117.108
    Unless the Liberals make a miracle comeback, this is one of those dominoes that will tip easily into the NDP column. A close race last time will be solid NDP win this time.



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