Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 08:42:43

Constituency Profile


Heyman, George

MacDiarmid, Margaret

Pedley, Matthew

Margaret MacDiarmid


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Margaret MacDiarmid
    Jenn McGinn*
    Vanessa Violini
    Graham Clark
    Norris Matthew Barens
    Alexander Frei


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    13 05 11 Seth
    Heyman is a good candidate for the NDP. This is a swing riding. If the NDP could take this in 2005, they have it in the bag now. Not sure why this is still listed as TCTC.
    13 05 06 Matt
    As much as I wish the incumbent would hold on, I don't think the recent bump in the polls is enough to save her in this bellweather. NDP gain.
    13 05 06 Western Lights
    Both Libs and Dips are working hard here. The relative organization of the Heyman campaign stands in sharp contrast to its hapless McGinn predecessor. Heyman has mounted a strong door-knocking campaign throughout the riding, even in parts where the NDP has not been historically strong. A recent tightening of the polls province wide has probably not yet gone far enough to save MacDiarmid. While not as confident in calling the result as other posters I would today give a slight edge for NDP here. Further tightening of the provincial poll numbers might still allow Liberals to hold this. Leaning NDP, but not by enough to call. The next couple of major polls will be interesting. Welcome to a swing riding!
    13 05 03 blondboybc
    Given the 5% margin last time, I'd definitely be putting this riding into the NDP column, hands down!
    13 04 27 NO PARTISAN BS
    I disagree with the comments regarding the contested NDP nomination. This shows that the nomination is highly desirable and will probably lead to a seat in Victoria.
    13 04 17 Western Lights
    Swing riding which should favour NDP, but with a popular well-organized Liberal incumbent. It will likely be very close but NDP nomination battle may limit its ability to win here. Could go either way depending on whether NDP can maintain current 15-19 point polling gap province wide.
    13 03 27 GV
    This seat ought to land firmly in the Dippers' column, despite the stubborn incongruity of someone like George Heyman running here. Natural NDP territory in my view, and that natural advantage is bolstered by the controversial ministerial career of Margaret MacDiarmid.
    13 03 13 bza
    This will likely be another easy pick up for the NDP as well. The riding was formerly held by Gregor Robertson for the NDP who is now Mayor of Vancouver, and was a surprise loss in the past election.
    13 03 12 Laurence Putnam
    Always a close one at the best of times, this bellwether ought to be an NDP victory by 5 points at least.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    That crashing sound you hear is the tipping of another Liberal domino. This will be an NDP pickup and with a wider margin that many expect.
    13 02 11 MF
    This should be an easy NDP pickup. This was a narrow win for the Liberals and there are enough ?urban progressives? in Fairview for it to go NDP.

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