Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011

Vancouver-False Creek

Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 00:20:27

Constituency Profile


Filippelli, James

Sullivan, Sam

Toner, Matt

Tootill, Ian James

Tseghay, Daniel

Vetro, Sal

Mary McNeil


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Mary McNeil
    Jordan Parente
    Damian Kettlewell
    David Robert Hutchinson
    Michael R. Halliday
    Otto Grecz


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    13 05 13 DFinch
    While BC looks set to elect a fairly large NDP majority, with the Lower Mainland leading their way, I think Sullivan will prevail in a close battle here. The NDP may have run a very good campaign, but I just don't see that wide gap from 2009 being narrowed quite enough in this condo-rich area.
    13 05 07 AR
    I would think Sam Sullivan's name would hurt the Liberals more than help. Regardless, a proper breakdown of recent polls suggest that the Liberals haven't actually gained much ground in Metro Vancouver. In fact, most of their gains have come from the Interior where they're now breaking 50%. With a weaker green candidate and the NDP outpolling the Liberals here, I believe Toner wins this in a close contest, by ~200 votes.
    13 05 03 Matt
    The BC Liberals won this riding by 29 points last time. Three polls have come out this week showing the gap between the NDP and liberals is now only single digits. Add Sam Sullivan's name recognition and you get a liberal victory here.
    13 04 27 NO PARTISAN BS
    Despite a concerted effort by some posters to paint this as a SULLIVAN riding, the Liberal brand is toxic and getting worse. I am changing my projection from toss up to 5-10% NDP win.
    13 04 25 seasaw
    Sam is high profile, likeable and popular. He will win here, and may even become the next party leader and even future premier.
    13 04 21 RonObserver
    I would have to agree with the previous poster. The NDP is running a good candidate and they have strength in one of the three main neighbourhoods that comprise this ridings (South False Creek). That said False Creek North/Yaletown + Coal Harbour + Strong name recognition in Sam Sullivan will win it by the Liberals in a squeaker. I think it helps that Sullivan was not part of the present Liberal government yet has strong name recognition. It also helps that Sullivan is not seen as part of Christy's inner circle (Mayencourt not Sulliave was the CC's favourite candidate during the nomination).
    13 04 17 Seth
    This riding includes all of Yaletown and Coal Harbour. Strong BC Liberal areas. South False Creek is solidly NDP but it won't be enough to tip the balance. Sullivan win by a thin margin.
    13 04 09 Laurence Putnam
    This is a tough call, but with the former Mayor and his name rec running in a riding with this socio-economic profile, I think this will actually stay Liberal. Libs won 2-1 last time and Sullivan has higher name recognition. Could be close but I think Sullivan will pull through.
    13 03 26 GV
    I find this riding extremely difficult to call. The Liberals' choice of Sam Sullivan over Lorne Mayencourt strikes me as a wise one--Sullivan's municipal career is water under the bridge by now. And the Liberal winning margin last time was so extraordinarily large that I would normally call it insuperable (as numbers currently stand). This is especially true in light of the Green vote (that ever-present X factor).
    But Toner's an impressive candidate in my opinion, and seems very well attuned to the riding's profile. Further, there's a strange political hybridity to this seat; south of False Creek, the NDP has a very strong presence. The party might be able to temporarily convert a substantial number of condo dwellers to their fold simply by running a good positive campaign and emphasizing the local candidate. It remains to be seen if that can happen, but I've got it TCTC for now.
    13 03 13 bza
    I would say this is a toss-up for now. This riding mostly houses very high-end condo dwellers who would likely lean towards voting for the BC Liberals.
    On the other hand their candidate is Sam Sullivan who was a bit of a train wreck when he was Mayor and was so unpopular he didn't win his own nomination to even have the chance to run for re-election.
    So...it may come down to less than 10% either way. Will have to see how the campaign goes.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    This one is a toss up. Normally a 15% swing from one party to the other is unlikely but given the current polling it is not out of reach. It will depend on the provincial campaign and the extent of the demand for change.

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