Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 08:42:47

Constituency Profile


Anton, Suzanne

Mackinnon, Stuart

Pandey, Rajiv

Yiu, Gabriel

Kash Heed


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Kash P. Heed
    Gabriel Yiu
    Jodie Joanna Emery
    Andrew Stevano


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    13 05 12 Advance Voting Analyst
    This is Vancouver's bellwether riding and, along with Vancouver-Fairview, the most likely to change hands in this election. Its voting patterns reflect its location at the nexus of red and orange support, leaning a bit more toward West Side Vancouver/Richmond Liberal characteristics than East Side Vancouver/Burnaby NDP. Federally, this once Liberal riding has shifted to the Conservatives, following the pattern seen in Richmond. The NDP will pick up enough votes to reverse the result of last election, but don't believe predictions of double-digit margins: the margin of victory here will probably mirror the margin of victory in popular vote province-wide.
    13 05 13 Simon Fraser Tolmie
    This is a safer Liberal riding than the the margin of victory would leave one to believe. While the riding has a large immigrant population they are mostly conservative in demeanour.
    Bernie Simpson won the riding in 1991 but, federally it is represented by a Conservative M.P. A Liberal hold.
    13 05 08 Western Lights
    If the Liberals somehow get to 30 seats this may be one of them. At this point, however, it looks like this should go NDP by 1,000+ votes. The polls may have moved, but seemingly not enough to hold Fraserview.
    13 05 03 seasaw
    This is one of those ridings than can go either way. Anton's high profile and popular, and with polls showing Liberals catching up, this one should stay in the Liberal column.
    13 03 25 GV
    Kash Heed's disgrace is the NDP's gain here. Having come quite close last time, Yiu has got to be considered the overwhelming favourite in Fraserview. Suzanne Anton has high name recognition, but I'm not convinced it will work in her favour. High-profile unsuccessful candidates are often shunned by the public for a period of time after their loss (though it's hardly fair).
    That being said, I don't pretend to be an expert on the unusually complex political dynamics of this riding.
    13 03 07 NO PARTISAN BS
    Only 4% difference last time and now with the NDP up and the Liberals way down in the polling, this looks like a likely NDP pick up.
    13 03 06 P. Kelly
    The BC Liberals just handed this seat to the NDP by having Christy Clark appoint the failed mayoral candidate Susan Anton as candidate here. Oh, and she lost another nomination race against Sam Sullivan elsewhere, but got parachuted in by the leader. Truly, the liberals are a slow moving train-wreck
    13 03 04 DFinch
    The BC Libs took this but not by very large margins in the previous two elections. It is very hard to envision any scenario that they will retain it. Solid NDP pickup.
    13 02 18 Devon
    The BCNDP should be able to pick this one up! Kash Heed was a ?star? candidate for the BC Liberals and he won by less than 800 votes.
    13 02 15 Laurence Putnam
    This riding must surely be sick and tired of all the dirty tricks BC Liberals have played to keep this riding - and even then only by the skin of their teeth with very high profile candidates. This time it will be different.

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