Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 00:21:12

Constituency Profile


Bains, Gurjinder

Chow, George

Sozo, Espavo T

Stilwell, Moira

Zhang, Regan-Heng

Moira Stilwell


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Moira Stilwell
    Helesia Luke
    J-M Toriel


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    13 05 12 DFinch
    The George Chow signs are everywhere in the denser areas of this riding. My previous comment below indicates why I don't think this seat is as safely BC Lib as some seem to think.
    While the province-wide NDP lead has shrunk, that has been less marked in the Lower Mainland and with a 5-10% NDP lead overall, that would add up to a very large majority, considering the popular vote numbers in 2009 in BC. I now think this riding will be one of the bigger surprises on election night and will go NDP, though I doubt my prediction will be enough to change the site's final prediction here.
    13 05 03 Matt
    Earlier on in the campaign, I would have agreed this riding was TCTC. However, three polls this week have shown the gap between the liberals and NDP to be down to single digits. With numbers like that, this riding becomes a liberal hold.
    13 05 01 Martin
    Don't be so quick to call this riding Liberal, I have been working with George Chow and the NDP campaign here and the response is overwhelmingly positive, polling by the campaign has put Chow ahead by 2% and 308 has the Liberals winning with a probability of only 52%. This riding is going to be interesting to watch!
    13 03 29 bza
    While I wouldn't be bullish enough to call it for the Liberals at this point, I would say this riding is more up in the air.
    The NDP candidate is George Chow who has been a Vancouver City Councillor. So he is a legitimate candidate who will likely have some campaign support behind him.
    13 03 26 GV
    When the Conservatives and Liberals were tied, this riding was very much in play. Not so any longer! Stilwell may resume her stillborn leadership ambitions after the election.
    13 03 23 P. Kelly
    Another contributor commented that this seat wouldn't change unless there was a total meltdown of BC Liberal support.
    Well, that is now at hand. At this point in the 1991 campaign, Social Credit was sitting at 35%. The liberals are at 28% (latest Angus Reid Poll). Calling this seat so early for the incumbent is premature. While it might be equally foolish to call it for the NDP, those same polls show a shift TO the NDP BY the liberals of up to 20pts. BC Conservatives and Greens threatening the liberals from all sides too. This is no longer a safe seat. Pull the 'prediction' back to ?TCTC? since the electoral ground is totally shifting right now.
    13 03 12 DFinch
    This riding should not be placed in the BC Liberal column necessarily. In 1991, the NDP garnered nearly 35% here, and the boundaries haven't changed too dramatically. Again in 2009, they achieved 35% here. By assuming a Liberal lock, other commentators don't see the NDP going up at all and are discounting their previous support here.
    I can't see the NDP vote going much past 40% here, but the BC Liberal vote % is likely to shrink considerably, probably by at least 10-15% of 2009 levels. This should make this riding very competitive, possibly one of the most competitive in the province if polling stays somewhat consistent between now and May 14.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    It will be much closer than in previous elections but barring a total meltdown in Liberal support, this will remain in their column.
    13 02 18 Laurence Putnam
    Not quite as safe for the Liberals as Quilchena...but almost. Result may dip under 50% this time, but nonetheless, one of the few ?definites? for the BC Liberals even before the write is dropped.

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