Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2013-05-14 23:41:46

Constituency Profile


Clarke, Bill

Kettlewell, Damian

Scapillati, Nicholas

Wilkinson, Andrew Franklin

Colin Hansen


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Colin Hansen*
    James Young
    Laura-Leah Shaw


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    13 04 27 NO PARTISAN BS
    A Liberal win but with less than 50% of the vote. A small beacon of light on what appears to be a dark night pending for the Liberals.
    13 04 13 bza
    While the Liberals will likely lose the election by a fairly large margin, it doesn't look like they are facing a total wipeout like the NDP experienced in 2001.
    The Liberals will also likely do better that the Socreds in 1991 where they were left with 7 seats and subsequently faded away after that.
    They will at least hold ridings like this one to either rebuild or transform into some other party.
    13 03 26 GV
    Even were the Liberals reduced to 2 seats, this one would be among them. Colin Hansen's departure changes nothing substantial here.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    This will be the only Liberal seat in Vancouver. The margin will be closer but the gap is far too much to close. If this seat falls to the NDP, no Liberal will be elected.
    13 02 18 Laurence Putnam
    The BC Libs just had 1,400 people show up to the nomination meeting yesterday. That's impressive by federal standards never mind a provincial riding one third the size. This is probably the safest Liberal seat in B.C., easy win.
    13 02 11 MF
    Basically the southern half of the federal riding of Quadra, the part made almost entirely of wealthy homeowners and little of the urban progressive/intelligentsia demographic found in Point Grey. One of the last Liberal seats to fall.

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