13 05 12	Advance Voting Analyst 24.85.70.63
In 2009, voters in this riding were 13% less likely to vote in advance than in BC as a whole. Through the first three days of advance voting, they've been 18% MORE likely to vote than the provincial mean. This 31-point swing is the greatest of all 85 ridings, taking it from 60th place to 23rd. Advance voting is up by about 60% overall in this riding. After winning in a cakewalk in 2005 and 2009, Carole James will squeak by Jane Sterk by a much smaller margin. The Mackay-May comparison in Central Nova is probably apt (he won, 47%-32%), although this one will be tighter...perhaps even as tight as the recent federal by-election.
	13 05 11	starchild2001 206.116.197.197
Every election in Canada has at least one big surprise. In Alberta, it was the collapse of Wild Rose. In the last Federal Election, it was the enormous rise of the Layton NDP. The surprise in this election bill be that Jane Sterk wins her seat very narrowly against the high profile Carol James.
	13 05 10	Laurence Putnam 204.244.83.122
You folks are out of your minds. This is going to play out like Elizabeth May taking on Peter MacKay - a very comparable and equally senseless scenario. If I were Jane Sterk, I'd have run in Oak Bay-Gordon Head. At least there, the momentum is working against the incumbent. Here, the momentum is WITH the incumbent in this riding, an incumbent whose profile is higher than Sterk's! It's utter insanity. The Greens got 12% provincewide in 2001 - same numbers they're polling at now - which translated to 21% in this riding. The leader, Carr, got 27% in her home riding. I'd look for similar numbers for Sterk - if she's lucky she can crack 30%, but it isn't going to be a win which really makes you wonder what this was all about. This has been a wasted opportunity if Sterk is serious about getting a seat in the legislature.
	13 05 10	mobk 142.32.208.227
Carole James will be going back to the legislature. There is enormous respect for her even among folks that might be inclined to vote Green. There was a lot of green vote here in the federal by-election but this is a different kettle of fish. The federal by-election was about giving Harper the finger. This election is about choosing the next government in BC. I'll grant that the Greens will probably eat into her support somewhat.
	13 05 09	RonObserver 206.116.197.197
I agree with the last post. Surprises happen in every election and there is always a couple ?black swan? events. I think a very possible ?black swan? is Carole James losing her riding to the Green Party. That's especially so given that the 30% Green polling on the Island is heavily concentrated on the South Island/Greater Victoria part. More surprising things have happened on elections nights.
	13 05 10	2424.3434.34.212 206.116.197.197
I think it is now time to think the unthinkable: a Green upset in this once solidly safe NDP riding with a strong NDP candidate. Why do I say that? The Green campaign in the South Island is coming on real strong and after North Saanich and Oak Bay-Gordon Head, this would be the next riding to go Green. The Green vote on the Island and the Province is disproportionally bunched up in Greater Victoria and the Green lobby has some big money behind it and they are pouring resources into Greater Victoria this election. They almost won the Federal Riding recently too. If the province wide rise to 12% total is to be believed and they can go a bit more to 14%, they may be in a position to maybe get 3 seats and this is the third most likely in BC.
	13 05 09	RonObserver 206.116.197.197
I agree with the last post. Surprises happen in every election and there is always a couple ?black swan? events. I think a very possible ?black swan? is Carole James losing her riding to the Green Party. That's especially so given that the 30% Green polling on the Island is heavily concentrated on the South Island/Greater Victoria part. More surprising things have happened on elections nights.
	13 04 19	Teddy Boragina 198.96.35.90
I'm surprised people are so quick to write-off the Green leader; especially in an area where another Green leader holds a seat (Greater Victoria)
	13 03 27	Laurence Putnam 50.98.247.34
I think there's a lot of quiet respect for Carole James as a ?Joe Clark of the NDP? style politician. Criticized as too moderate by her supporters and never finding a compelling narrative to run against Campbell, she will carve out a place for herself in the coming NDP cabinet as an elder statesman of sorts and I think will hold this seat for as long as she wants to represent it. Why Jane Sterk is taking her on head to head is utterly beyond reason and simply proves that the Green Party doesn't have its' act together this time out. Elizabeth May tried three seats in three provinces before she finally picked wisely and was rewarded by the constituents of the Gulf Islands - Jane needed only to take a brief commute, but thought this was a better plan instead. As Homer Simpsons says: ?D'oh!?
	13 03 26	GV 206.47.100.160
How does this riding even have any submissions at all? Extremely secure NDP hold. You've got to wonder whether Jane Sterk even enjoys being party leader if she's offering herself up as a sacrificial lamb here. Still, she may come second.
	13 03 08	NO PARTISAN BS 99.253.117.108
The NDP will sweep the Island and the only issues to be decided are the margin of victory and how much the Green vote will grow.
	13 03 05	chad 66.38.235.7
This riding could be interesting to watch with the leader of the green party running.
	13 03 01	Eduardo 184.66.132.63
Carol James is a shoe-in in this safe riding. The Greens will be focussing on Oak Bay as that is their best chance and they will leave Jane Sterk out to dry in this riding, which is likely add to internal issues.
	13 02 05	JKennethY 76.70.114.163
The Island will go 100% NDP. The Greens have an outside chance in a seat or two and will finish well ahead of the BC Libs in popular vote. The Conservatives are out of the question