Election Prediction Project
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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011

West Vancouver-Sea to Sky


Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 08:42:39
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Johnson, Jon

McLeod, Ian

Santos, Ana

Sturdy, Jordan

Warrington, Richard

Incumbent:
Joan McIntyre

Reference:

  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order


    2009 Result:


    Joan McIntyre*
    1010154.91%
    Juliana Buitenhuis
    421422.90%
    Jim Stephenson
    4,08222.19%


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    13 04 27 NO PARTISAN BS
    99.253.118.143
    A closer three way fight than many expected but still looking like a Liberal hold. Losing this riding would signal a disaster for the Liberals but those looking for the Liberal disaster will not find it here.
    13 03 28 GV
    206.47.112.39
    This riding is a fascinating long-term Green prospect, but the NDP has little or no shot at the riding--a great many of their votes go to the former party. The Liberals split the difference very effectively, with a comfortable margin and a strong candidate. Just what you'd expect on the North Shore (though the riding is less West Van-centric than it used to be).
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    99.253.117.108
    The Liberals will hold this seat and the NDP and Greens will battle for second. Only a Liberal collapse province wide will change this result.
    13 02 18 Laurence Putnam
    174.7.106.35
    Pemberton Mayor Jordan Sturdy will be representing the Liberals and will almost certainly win. The main challenger in the past three races has been the Green Party. The best showing for the NDP in the last 30 years was in 1996 when they got ALMOST 30% of the vote running the Mayor of Lions Bay. Since then, this riding is wealthier than ever before with the suburbanization of Squamish - plus, don't forget that this riding was very well served by the legacy of the Winter Olympics. Conservatives might have made this interesting with a credible candidate I hear they almost had - but now appear to be disorganized.
    13 02 10 Insider
    99.231.65.45
    This riding could have slipped from the Liberals if the Conservatives were doing better. With the Conservative 'surge' being a temporary phenomenon, the Liberals will hold on to this even in a total meltdown.



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