Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Ajax-Pickering


Prediction Changed
2014-06-09 07:55:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Dickson, Joe

King, Jermaine

McCarthy, Todd

Narraway, Adam

Stewart, Kyle

Incumbent:
Joe Dickson

Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide – Ontario (Ajax-Pickering)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * JOE DICKSON
    1960647.34%
    TODD MCCARTHY
    1471835.54%
    EVAN WISEMAN
    595214.37%
    STEVEN TOMAN
    8432.04%
    ANDREW DELIS
    2990.72%
    2007 Result:
    JOE DICKSON
    19,85749.07%
    KEVIN ASHE
    13,89834.35%
    BALA THAVARAJASOORIER
    3,2758.09%
    CECILE WILLERT
    3,0677.58%
    ANDREW CARVALHO
    3680.91%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1647543.73%
    1655343.93%
    326408.66%


  •  


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    14 06 08 James M.
    65.92.76.142
    This one is really hard to predict. The Liberal campaign seems to consist entirely of large signs on public property - no literature and no canvassing and no sign of the candidate on the doorstep. The Tories are certainly spending a ton of money and don't seem to mind breaking election laws, e.g. putting up signs several days prior to the writ being dropped. The NDP is running its strongest campaign in years and will certainly increase its vote from previous elections.
    14 06 07 Keen Observer
    174.88.205.162
    I have had mccarthy canvassers at my door twice! All i've had fron dickson is a robocall wishing me a happy victoria day (uh??) Plus a rather narcisstic 20 plus page newsletter with more pictures of joe than i could count. If professionalism and organization are any indication, mccarthy will (and deserves to) win. PC gain.
    14 06 04 JS
    99.245.168.224
    As we get closer to election day, there is clear evidence that Todd McCarthy is going to take this riding for the PC's. In the former Liberal stronghold of Ajax, McCarthy has an overwhelming lead in the number of signs on private property (at least 4 to 1) and the Liberals managed to offend hundreds by putting up signs - without permission - on all the properties that had taken signs in the past! I'll predict a 2000 vote plurality for McCarthy, at least.
    14 06 02 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    In 2007, this was the ultimate demonstration of the perils of projection methodology according to redistributed results--it *looked* to many like a certain Tory pickup; but that's because the 2003 figure was skewed by strong PC incumbents in the component ridings. As a new seat liberated from said placeholders, though, it was destined to go w/the Liberal flow. But Joe Dickson's backbench and not getting any younger; and on McCarthy's behalf, who knows how much posthumous Flaherty honeymoon good-vibery remains. Then again, the relentless northward-and-eastward growth of Ajax still favours the Liberals--suffice to say that it's seats like this that'll make the winning-vs-losing difference for the Grits.
    14 05 30 DougM
    99.243.6.109
    This one is going to be close. I live in and drive around the riding for business. Joe Dickson (L) has the most large signs on public property. Look at private property/residences, though, and the story changes, with far more (about 3:1) in favour of Todd McCarthy (PC). I do not need all the fingers on one hand to count orange signs. Local discussions seem to be more at the provincial level. The odd discussion on local issues are focused on what, if anything, our MPP has done for the riding since being elected.
    14 05 30 DougM
    99.243.6.109
    This one is going to be close. I live in and drive around the riding for business. Joe Dickson (L) has the most large signs on public property. Look at private property/residences, though, and the story changes, with far more (about 3:1) in favour of Todd McCarthy (PC). I do not need all the fingers on one hand to count orange signs. Local discussions seem to be more at the provincial level. The odd discussion on local issues are focused on what, if anything, our MPP has done for the riding since being elected.
    14 05 27 Jeff Gee
    50.100.184.179
    There's no doubt that McCarthy will gain a few points this time around, but the numbers just aren't looking good enough for the Tories in the 905 to take away very many Liberal seats. Being that there is a 12-point margin here, and both ground campaigns seem to be strong, I don't see this one flipping.
    14 05 22 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    A rematch of the 2011 election in terms of the 2 main candidates . likely to be closer this election . it could go either way both Joe Dickson and Todd Mccarthy are strong candidates for each party. If the Ontario pc's are to make gains in the 905 region this is the type of ridings that have potential but at same time can also vote for liberal candidates .
    14 05 06 Keen Observer
    99.243.44.183
    Joe Dickson is a good man, but a tired candidate representing a tired party. This riding will be one of the first to move from red to blue.
    13 04 10
    70.30.132.201
    Easy Liberal hold! Joe Dickson, aka ‘Mr. Ajax’, remains one of the hardest-working constituency MPPs in Ontario, and is taking on increasing responsibilities at Queen's Park as well. Meanwhile, in yet another strategic blunder, Tim Hudak is running his failed candidate from 2011 again: Todd McCarthy, a parachute candidate who does not live in the riding and is best known (only known?) for being Jim Flaherty's junior partner. The Flaherty-Elliott family dominates in Todd McCarthy's hometown of Whitby, but they, like McCarthy, are just too conservative for Ajax-Pickering, especially the more moderate north Ajax. This is a seat where a moderate, well-known, well-liked Red Tory could stand a chance---fortunately for Joe Dickson, Todd McCarthy is none of the above. Look for Dickson to equal or even improve upon his usual 15% margin of victory.
    13 04 10 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    Always a riding that could go either way. As of right now, according to the latest polls, I'm going to have to call this one for the PC's because of their latest numbers in 905. Anything, however, can happen here.



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