Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Windsor West

Prediction Changed
2014-06-07 22:56:00

Constituency Profile


Charif, Helmi

Durocher, Chad

Gretzky, Lisa

Lau, Hung-Chih

Piruzza, Teresa

Teresa Piruzza


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Windsor West)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 07 Toronto Star/Forum Poll
    Windsor West (polled Sunday, 408 people, accurate to within 5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20) New Democrat Lisa Gretzky 41 per cent, Liberal Teresa Piruzza 34 per cent, Progressive Conservative Henry Lau 18 per cent, Green Chad Durocher 5 per cent.
    14 06 07 dataman
    Forum poll, June 1 shows, NDP 41, Lib 34, Con 18 (http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/59/18-on--swing-ridings-polled/). This is a strong NDP riding, the party is putting in a lot of effort, and a lot of people in Windsor are angry with the Liberals. Piruzza is not particularly popular -- she's not Pupatello.
    14 06 02 seasaw
    This one may go right down the wire, but I believe the Liberals have the edge. 1, incumbency plays a big role here 2, Teresa's a Liberal who's done nothing wrong 3, If the Liberals are hoping to for a majority or even a minority, this riding's a must have.
    14 05 28 jeff316
    After the Helmi Charif debacle, it is mildly surprising that the NDP could find a candidate of Lisa Gretzky's quality. Piruzza, however, has deep links with Windsor movers and shakers. She'll have incumbency, money and party support to likely fend Gretzky off.
    14 05 27 Marco Ricci
    Teresa Piruzza has become the last remaining Liberal dot of red in a sea of NDP orange. Windsor West is NDP federally, as is Windsor-Tecumseh, and now the latter has gone NDP provincially, as well. However, despite declining trends for the Liberals in this area in 2011, Teresa Piruzza was able to win a vacant riding here. It is possible she could hold on again in 2014. Most provincial polling trends have the Liberals ahead in Ontario, and even competitive in the Southwest in today's Abacus poll. 308 even has this seat as Liberal in its seat projection right now. And who knows, maybe the recent death of long-term Federal MP Herb Gray will give the Liberals a boost of nostalgia in this riding, too. Might as well throw that idea in here just in case!
    14 05 23 Arden
    This will be close, and I can't discount the possibility of a LPO hold, but I'm going to vote for NDP here. Based on today's Ipsos-Reid poll, the Liberals are losing ground relative to their polling numbers last election, while PC votes are stable and NDP, Greens, and others seem to be picking up most of the slack. Though I can't be confident in this, I predict an NDP win here.
    14 05 22 Alice
    The previous poster called this riding an easy pickup for the NDP. I don't think that assessment could be more wrong. TP has built a strong brand for herself and has assembled a good coalition of voters across the riding. I expect her to keep her seat by a healthy margin.
    14 05 11 A.S.
    This was supposed to be a sure open-seat NDP pickup in 2011; but Helmi Charif's stumblebum campaign handed it back to the Liberals instead--but w/most of the rest of the OntGrits' SW Ontario base being decimated through 2011-and-subsequent-byelection defeat, Piruzza's looking more like a forlorn leftover (and much more sitting-duckish than, say, Deb Matthews). On her behalf, S London's the heart of 'non-socialist' Windsor--though that's never impeded Brian Masse federally. For all one knows, given that the non-favoured PCs managed a quarter of the vote in 2011, if the Wynne campaign really tanks it's not impossible that Piruzza might wind up *third*--wherefore art thou Herb Gray, indeed...
    14 05 10 Mr. Dave
    Recent polling has shown the NDP to be gaining strength in this part of Ontario.
    Windsor West should be an easy pick-up, given their federal history in this riding.
    14 05 07 Dr Bear
    I agree with RM. Windsor voters are very loyal to their incumbents and seldom vote them out of office. When these incumbents leave office, then the voters tend to kick out the party. You can see this trend in all levels of government and was how the NDP scored this city federally over a decade ago. That being said, I am not ready to call the a Liberal win just yet. The NDP will be targeting here and the current MPP does not have as long a tradition here as did Pupatello or Duncan (in the neighboring riding). Let's see how the campaign shapes up before making a definitive call.
    14 05 04 RM
    It will be close but Piruzza has a good chance to hold. Windsor tends to be loyal to its incumbents and Teresa has been a solid MPP.
    14 05 02 Politico
    Gretzky should easily stickhandle to victory here given that the riding is fertile NDP territory and Liberals will suffer from the Herb Gray Pkwy scandal in the Greater Winsdor area.
    13 02 15 LFC Ottawa
    If Sandra was leader, this seat would be one of the few safe Liberal seats left. Without her, its an easy NDP pick up.

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