Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

York West


Prediction Changed
2013-03-07 22:41:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Jarrett, Keith

Nation, Karlene

Rakocevic, Tom

Schwauss, Waldemar B

Sergio, Mario

Incumbent:
Mario Sergio

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (York West)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * MARIO SERGIO
    1145550.49%
    TOM RAKOCEVIC
    790134.82%
    KARLENE NATION
    273512.05%
    JOSEPH RINI
    2871.26%
    LELAND W. CORNELL
    1140.5%
    KAYLA BAPTISTE
    1070.47%
    SCOTT AITCHISON
    890.39%
    2007 Result:
    * MARIO SERGIO
    13,24654.74%
    ANTONI SHELTON
    6,76427.95%
    SHANE O'TOOLE
    2,48410.26%
    SERGIO PAGNOTTA
    1,1994.95%
    JULIA CARVALHO
    2821.17%
    RAM NARULA
    2250.93%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1669568.32%
    254210.40%
    397616.27%


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    14 06 08 Mark R.
    64.39.168.127
    In the close Lib/NDP traditional seats, expect more of these to flip to orange from red. The polling results are extremely inconsistent. I was in York West last weekend and could not believe how many NDP signs there were vs Liberal.
    14 06 05 M D
    70.50.117.169
    I can't tell you the numbers of people I have heard say to me in the last week that they voted Liberal all their lives, but now they are voting for Tom. This one goes orange for the first time since 1990.
    14 06 05 GTY
    23.91.182.140
    Over the past decade, the declining Liberal support and the rising NDP support in York West could be explained by demographic factors. This trend continues but there are more recent factors that have been accelerating the trend.
    The support for the Liberals is very soft, and the second choice for Liberals is the NDP. The Liberal brand has been weakened by multiple scandals, especially the fallout of the cancelled power plants, and the rising electricity bills. Provincial polls that show that 70% of voters believe it is time for a change are reflected in York West.
    On the flip side, the NDP is running a very ambitious campaign on top of a very ambitious pre-election campaign. Tom Rakocevic and his crew have been knocking on doors for many months, and appearing at community events.
    The Liberals are in for a rude awakening in York West.
    14 05 30 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    Once an old Lastman hack, always an old Lastman hack--that Sergio's survived is due to the long-term underdevelopment of any effective opposition force; though over the past couple of elections it's seemed the NDP (not unjustifiably) has been making serious advances--now w/2011's candidate reoffering, it ought to be a sleeper, a provincial version of YSW + SSW federally in 2011. That is, if Horwath weren't so keen on (sorta) sabotaging her 416 base; so right now, Sergio again by default unless the tide changes. (And it still could change; after all, it's a 'Ford' 416er of a seat.)
    14 05 16 kingstonstudent
    184.151.179.197
    This one will be an extremely close Liberal-NDP race, potentially as close as York South--Weston was last time around. The Liberal incumbent is fairly well-entrenched, but the NDP candidate (an assistant to Toronto city councillor Anthony Perruzza) is also relatively well-known, having put in a strong showing in 2011. While the Liberals are polling well in the 416, this is nevertheless the kind of riding in which Andrea Horwath's populist, folksy style may do more good than harm. Far too close to call.
    14 05 13 Marco Ricci
    99.241.63.7
    Sergio's vote did drop a few points in the last election, but he still got 50% of the vote. I think it will take the NDP at least another election before they can win a riding like this. Also remember that this riding remained Liberal federally under Judy Sgro in 2011 during the Ignatieff wipe-out.
    14 05 09 J B
    70.48.155.174
    I live in York West and my street has 20 orange signs and no liberal signs. I am not sure my street is voting for the incumbent this time. He has been around one too many elections.
    14 05 06 DL
    174.93.24.35
    This riding is very Liberal, however the NDP has made some gains here but it will not put them over the top this time around. This riding will once again go liberal again.
    14 03 29 M D
    99.235.39.123
    The incumbent has not done a lot of work and has little name recognition. This riding is up for grabs. The Liberal percentage has dropped for the last 3 elections provincially and is no longer a bastion of red support. This rematch between Rakocevic and Sergio is likely to be the last one.
    13 09 15
    198.200.89.110
    As the previous poster said, if Sergio runs again, he will win. Wynne's appeal in Toronto will also stem the vote bleeding in this riding.
    13 03 03 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    Sergio has represented this riding forever. He's well liked, he's in the cabinet, this is a Liberal stronghold, need I say more ?



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