Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2014-06-11 08:10:00

Constituency Profile


Brannan, Andrew

Cross, Meredith

McKenna, Jane

McMahon, Eleanor

Mowbray, Janice (Jan)

Zach, Charles

Jane McKenna


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Burlington)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 10 Marco Ricci
    The tie between the OLP & the PC's in the Forum riding poll seems to show that the Liberals are competitive here. It sounds like they have a shot, but with the latest Abacus poll seeming to indicate a drop in Liberal support in this final week, it's possible it may take the seat out of Liberal reach just as it was in sight.
    14 06 09 R White
    If a Liberal biased star poll has the Liberals ahead of the PC's by just one point, they haven't got a hope.
    14 06 09 therealbatman
    No reason to think this riding won't go blue, after having been a PC seat since 1999. Only if the polls change dramatically in the next couple of days will McKenna lose the seat.
    14 06 09 Kyle H
    I'm a partisan Liberal from Burlington, so my initial reaction is to just put this into the OLP column, but the fact is that it is way TCTC - McMahon has received a lot of backing from the central HQ, including staffers and resources never offered to the previous candidates. This is because I think McMahon and Wynne have a bit of a professional history together, with Wynne being a supporter of McMahon's push for Greg's Law to be put in place. Plus Burlington, despite not going Liberal in the last few decades, has been close the last few elections - it won't take much to flip the riding, just a good candidate. McKenna doesn't really have name recognition here, definitely not the same profile as Jackson had - and, frankly, I've found her style to be very abrasive every time I've seen her, whether in debate or during a function she showed up at during her failed 2010 municipal run.
    But the riding does tend to bleed blue, so TCTC.
    14 06 07 Toronto Star/Forum Poll
    Burlington (polled May 29, 713 people, accurate to within 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20) Liberal Eleanor McMahon 42 per cent, Progressive Conservatives Jane McKenna 41 per cent, New Democrat Jan Mowbray 13 per cent, Green Meredith Cross 4 per cent.
    14 06 07 wray
    Toronto Star poll puts Liberals at 42 to Conservative 41 in Burlington.
    14 06 07 precision
    You might want to put this in the too close to call column. Forum, which can have unreliable results, has the Libs leading June 6. The margin of victory was small. Not a lock for PCs, as Star has just written a good article on the seniors in Burlington. That might favor PCs. Same for Cambridge.
    14 05 28 A.S.
    Re the NDP in Burlington: they've elected a mayor in recent times, and who knows what would have happened in 1990 had Cam Jackson fallen in the 1987 Liberal sweep (and the added north-of-QEW parts actually *favoured* the NDP in 1990). And on top of that, the ONDP had the most 'qualified' (school trustee, etc) candidate here in 2011 in a manner eerily redolent of the subsequent K-W and London West byelections--though unfortunately for her, that was a general election, not a byelection. All NDP aside, though, Burlington's also sufficiently Don Valley West-y that in the event that Hudak falls even further short, the Grits are capable of doing what they couldn't in 1987--hey, it happened for them in Markham and Mississauga South in 2003...
    14 05 26 Dan
    One of the comments noted that Burlington is too affluent to elect NDP - I think while NDP will not take Burlington, such biases need to change. The NDP appear to be the most balanced and want to address the issues that all classes face while emphasizing those at a disadvantage - that is what responsible affluent people do. Quite honestly, from power plant debacles to initiating a smear campaign against teachers and selling of the ETR 407, the Liberals and PCs have caused their fair share of havoc in Ontario. The PCs are back on the teacher rampage, and while their ads talk about jobs losses under the Liberal government, getting rid of 100,000 public sector jobs (as the PCs suggest), certainly is not going to encourage economic growth. In the end, while I fear it, I think that Burlington will continue to hold the status quo and fail to rock the boat for the good of Ontario.
    14 05 24 M McQuain
    Eleanor McMahon canvassed my home last night flanked by energetic youngsters. She seemed warm and genuine and appeared to be doing a good job identifying and mobilizing her supporters. Eleanor faces an uphill battle given this riding's voting history.
    14 05 22 Ron
    The Liberals have a great local candidate in Eleanor McMahon for this one and some high profile ads already on major bus shelters around the city. Eleanor canvassed my door and she was really charismatic and engaging - I really think that most people who meet Eleanor will vote for her. I've met Jane as well and nothing against her but I wasn't impressed (I am usually a PC voter). Frankly I expect Tim to lose a lot of seats and his position as PC leader this time - it will be very close but I'm betting on a Liberal upset in Burlington.
    NDP candidate is non-existent I haven't seen a single sign or sign of her.
    14 05 20 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    NDP in Burlington...seriously? Burlington is an affluent suburban riding and one of the weakest ridings for the NDP in the province. They've never come close to taking it. At most, a stronger third place showing for the NDP would just ensure the Tories continue to hold it.
    14 05 17 ron
    This is definitely shaping up to be a race. Ndp support is visible in areas of the city not seen for years. Pulling vote will be key. Liberals are definitely slow out of the gate.
    14 05 10 Jeff316
    The Liberals chance to win Burlington was last time, when there was no incumbent, the PCs fielded a no-name candidate that couldn't even win election to city council, and the NDP ran a serious candidate to mop up some of the anti-Liberal vote that couldn't bring themselves to vote PC because of their nomination shenanigans.
    If they couldn't win then they won't win this time - given the drop in the polls, the scandals, and McKenna having a couple years under her belt. If the PCs ever drop to third again, Burlington will still be one of their ridings.
    14 05 09 MG
    This riding is too close to call and should be listed as such on here. Yes it's been PC for a long time but rarely was it as close as 2,000 votes in 2011 when McKenna beat out a relatively unknown Liberal. This time, the Grits have a great candidate in Eleanor McMahon who has a great story to tell - her late police officer husband was killed while cycling and she founded Share The Road Canada. She's been campaigning for months. If Halton nearby is considered too close to call, so should Burlington! If the Grits surge in the GTA which is quite possible, this one could go Liberal.
    14 05 07 R.O.
    Hold for current Ontario pc mpp Jane Mckenna . I don't see the opposition not keeping seats they have consistently won in past elections . and Burlington has been a seat the pc's have held for a number of years.
    13 02 09 Angry Ontarian
    Burlington will send MPP Jane McKenna back to Queen's Park for the following reasons:
    -The riding has voted Progressive Conservative for 75 years now, if I'm not mistaken
    -Local issues include the Liberals' 2011 broken election promise to cancel the Niagara Peninsula HWY through the escarpment (as noted in the Burlington Post), and Joe Brant hospital funding is secure
    -Grits are less popular than the last election (recent poll had Kathleen Wynne at 31%), and NDP support is also up

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