Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Durham


Prediction Changed
2013-02-16 14:36:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Anderson, Granville

Patrick, Michael

Spence, Derek

Toye, Conner

Zalucky, Halyna

Incumbent:
John O'Toole

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Durham)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * JOHN O'TOOLE
    2239349.07%
    BETTY SOMERVILLE
    1339429.35%
    JAMES TERRY
    802717.59%
    EDWARD YAGHLEDJIAN
    12212.68%
    BLAIZE BARNICOAT
    4240.93%
    DAVID STRUTT
    1720.38%
    2007 Result:
    * JOHN O'TOOLE
    21,51546.96%
    BETTY LOUISE SOMERVILLE
    14,73032.15%
    CATHERINE ROBINSON
    5,52112.05%
    JUNE DAVIES
    4,0538.85%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1466435.67%
    2020949.17%
    445610.84%


  •  


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    14 05 20 DB
    207.219.69.224
    I think this riding will stay Conservative however this candidate Mike Patrick has no communication skills. I called and emailed this man several times and was to be involved in the campagin for him even though I struggled with some of the party platform. I also have seen many posts on social media that many others have requested signs or phone calls but none are replied to. Sadly this will be the first time since I was able to vote thy I won't be voting conservative.
    14 05 18 durahmgal
    184.146.198.100
    This riding is a whole new ball game. Nobody knows who the Conservative candidate is except for a handful of Bowmanville folks. The Liberal canadiate is well known having served on the separate school board for forteen years as well a Chairman of the school board. The other interesting factor is having a O'Toole/O'Toole as the representatives, and now they present their chosen candidate, which will end up being the same problem as the voters in the riding of Durham already have and that is no one to speak out on the serious issues that face the riding. It is a scratch my back and I will scratch yours and keep my mouth shut representation. Plus the Liberals have positive initiatives occurring in the riding. The 407 expansion; land is being purchased now by business and plans extensive. Go transportation lands have been bought, tracks are being tracks are being upgraded, the only hold up on go being in Bomanville today is Oshawa want to change locations for depot. Now I have to tell you a close fight is on the go.
    14 05 10 Josh
    174.88.45.19
    DurhamGal, you once again are so far off the mark! In 2007, you predicted a Liberal win, based on 'excitement' for the Liberal candidate (not sure what campaign you witnessed, but it sure couldn't have been the Liberal Durham campaign) and in 2011, John O'Toole was going to lose by 5,000 votes. You were wrong then, and you're wrong now.
    The candidates in Durham are lacking big time - from all the parties - but the riding will remain reliably blue, barring a major blunder by the central PC campaign or the local candidate. Sorry, DurhamGal, but your powers of observation are failing you.
    14 05 08 JT
    66.241.132.114
    I always love when DurhamGal comes out of the woodwork to make ridiculous predictions that always end up wrong. It's a sorry slate of candidates in Durham, but the riding will stay PC.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    Even with John O'Toole not running, this has pretty much always gone Conservative when the right is united and despite its proximity to the GTA, its still more rural than suburban so with the PCs well out in front in rural Ontario, this should stay PC.
    14 05 11 adma@rogers.com
    99.233.52.111
    Yes, durhamgal, the (federal) Liberals *could have* defeated Bev Oda in 2004; but given subsequent patterns they wouldn't have likely held the seat beyond that election--Durham's like that. Indeed, it could be just as well likely that the pending provincial result will be a copycat of the federal byelection result, i.e. NDP, not Lib, in second.
    14 05 10 Josh
    174.88.45.19
    DurhamGal, you once again are so far off the mark! In 2007, you predicted a Liberal win, based on 'excitement' for the Liberal candidate (not sure what campaign you witnessed, but it sure couldn't have been the Liberal Durham campaign) and in 2011, John O'Toole was going to lose by 5,000 votes. You were wrong then, and you're wrong now.
    The candidates in Durham are lacking big time - from all the parties - but the riding will remain reliably blue, barring a major blunder by the central PC campaign or the local candidate. Sorry, DurhamGal, but your powers of observation are failing you.
    14 05 08 durhamgal
    184.146.196.132
    This riding is not a sure thing for anyone. The liberals could have easily won when the weak Bev Oda ran for the first time. Too much family involvement. So lets get down to the nitty gritty. In Durham we have not had a representative who has gone out of him way to attract any investment, improvements and made use of the many programs that voters in this riding could use and are available to members of all parties in all ridings. Why. Because he was afraid of making the government look good. End result Durham loses One of the biggest issues at this present time is there is no one at the provincial or federal level standing up for the citizens in this riding, one scratches the others back and we all lose.
    14 05 08 JT
    66.241.132.114
    I always love when DurhamGal comes out of the woodwork to make ridiculous predictions that always end up wrong. It's a sorry slate of candidates in Durham, but the riding will stay PC.
    14 05 05 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    The longtime pc incumbent has retired however its not likely riding will flip as there was a vacant riding federally here as well and it stayed conservative in that by election . it seems to be a more conservative area of Durham region this riding .
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    Even with John O'Toole not running, this has pretty much always gone Conservative when the right is united and despite its proximity to the GTA, its still more rural than suburban so with the PCs well out in front in rural Ontario, this should stay PC.
    14 05 04 KS
    65.93.25.248
    Now that John O'Toole has retired, and the PC numbers have not substantially improved, the PC vote should be weaker this time around.
    That being said, both the Liberals and NDP are too far behind to take this one. The left-of-PC vote will also have difficulty concealing around either the Liberals or the NDP, which can allow the PCs to win with 40-43% of the vote.
    13 04 15 Carol berney
    184.146.196.69
    New candidate for PC's hard right winger, who has a past that will haunt him from Bowmanville to Wisconsin USA, that is if you like your hospital and health care. Lots of debates will expose conservative candidate.
    14 03 17 durham gal
    184.146.199.34
    Now the Mr O'Toole has as predicted retired, the PC's will make a mistake and will most likely run Mike Patrick a extreme right winger that would make Rush Linbold seem like a socialist. Riding up for grabs.
    13 02 15 LFC Ottawa
    70.30.21.69
    There is no question that John will win again. It's only the beginning of having O'Toole's represent the riding at both levels of government.



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