Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Essex)
2011 Provincial Election Prediction
2011 Federal Election Prediction
2008 Federal Election Prediction
2007 Provincial Election Prediction
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| ||14 06 10
|And so, in 2011, Essex County provincially became the dyslexic version of Essex County federally--with the Windsor seats refusing to budge, Essex itself went NDP! And thus, Taras Natyshak became the latest entry in the 'multiple tries and you're in' NDP hall of fame--just by 'being there', he ought to be safe; internal party unrest tends not to extend this far southwest. However, if the ONDP's been reduced to teens provincewide...some things are too much to bear. Just keep reminding voters, then, that in this particular seat, a vote *away* from Horwath is a vote for Hudak...|
| ||14 06 08
|The NDP will sweep everything west of Chatham - NDP support is higher than last time around and support for the Liberals and PC is down in this area. I have lots of family in the area and although they voted Liberal back to the days of Remo Mancini, they are largely voting NDP this time. Taras is well respected, very visible, particularly on the the agricultural issues including the horse racing disaster created by McGuinty. NDP hold. |
| ||14 06 08
|The NDP is holding its vote outside of the 416, particularly in the southwest. Natyshak has incumbency, and although on the weaker end of the MPP caucus, he's head and shoulders above the candidates here. Cecile, in particularly, is not MPP material. This is a riding with an above-average number of union members - the PCs locally were split due to Hudak's right-to-work plank and the subsequent ouster of their well-known, well-liked candidate in Brister. |
The PCs will make this close - they might even sneak it - but the NDP prediction here is not out of whack, as people who know this riding, its candidates and its race will attest.
| ||14 06 06
|No way the NDP should be a lock in this riding.|
1 - Hudak was leader last time, any 'bad' leadership is thus already reflected in the last-time vote.
2 - The last-time vote was close.
3 - Polls. Every firm (save Ipsos) is telling us the Tories are either level with their last-time province-wide results, or, better. They also tell us the NDP is doing worse. They also indicate Rural voters are swinging blue.
4 - All it takes is a small number of voters to swing NDP-to-Liberal to cause the Tories to win.
5 - The media, fueled by Ipsos polling, is portraying this as a horserace between the Liberals and Tories, and that if you want to stop Hudak, you better vote Liberal.
| ||14 05 28
|Without Hudak's anti-union tendencies and with a polished and well-known moderate like Dave Brister this would have been a race. But Hudak messed this one up, and it's likely that Natyshak will win again, even though he's proven to be a relatively weak performer at both Queen's Park and in Toronto.|
| ||14 05 11
|I have seen over and over NDP candidates win close elections and then are impossible to dislodge in subsequent campaigns. Windsor, Ottawa, Halifax,rural BC and downtown Toronto.|
| ||14 05 07
|Taras finally did it! After trying to crack the shell of the Federal Essex riding, he succeeded provincially. Some will argue that he didn't win by much and that a small uptick in PC support will knock him off. I disagree. The thing to note is that in 2011 there was a significant Liberal vote of about 25%. I would argue that is not the limit of their core supporters. I suspect core support would be about 15%; what they got federally in 2011. Of that remaining 10%, there will be some who will now vote NDP to help prevent a PC government (or majority). That being said, I foresee the NDP keeping this riding with a greater share of the vote. However things change in campaigns and there are a number of scenarios where Taras could be unseated:|
1. There is a sudden love-in for Wynn and her merry band of Liberals, resulting in the Liberals retaking the riding (highly unlikely).
2. The Liberals regain some traction and regain some support lost to the NDP. Result: PC take the riding.
3. Either Wynn messes up majorly or Hudak enjoys a sudden love-in and PC support soars, resulting in a PC win in this riding (both are possible but both are yet to transpire and at the time of this writing there is no evidence of such happening).
4. The NDP do/say something dumb that causes them to bleed a lot of support. In which case, it would depend to which party it bleeds but the likely outcome would be a PC win.
At this stage of the game, I'm giving the nod to the NDP but a pick up by the other parties (most likely PC) is quite possible.
| ||13 02 15
|This will be a close race between the Tories and the NDP. With a stronger Hudak campaign, expect the PC's to pick up the seat. If the PC campaign fails again, the NDP will be re elected here, along with the rest of Windsor.|