Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Etobicoke Centre


Prediction Changed
2014-06-06 08:19:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Baker, Yvan

Bussmann, Alexander

Jones, Christopher

Martino, Pina

Martins, John

Morrison, George

Trigiani, Felicia

Incumbent:
Donna Cansfield

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Etobicoke Centre)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * DONNA CANSFIELD
    2191651.48%
    MARY ANNE DEMONTE-WHELAN
    1395632.78%
    ANA MARIA RIVERO
    509911.98%
    CHERYLL SAN JUAN
    8371.97%
    ALEXANDER BUSSMANN
    4220.99%
    LIZ MILLICAN
    2310.54%
    MARCO RENDA
    1080.25%
    2007 Result:
    * DONNA CANSFIELD
    22,93950.07%
    ANDY PRINGLE
    15,66734.20%
    ANITA AGRAWAL
    3,8478.40%
    GREG KING
    3,3577.33%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1943048.70%
    1554838.97%
    295907.41%


  •  


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    14 06 06 Teddy Boragina
    198.96.35.90
    Polls tell us the Tories will have one hell of a time even trying to hold on to Toby Lakeshore. How on earth they gain Toby Centre is beyond me. This riding is big L Liberal. The only time in recent history it voted against the Liberals was very narrowly federally, and in 1999 provincially. A reminder the 1999 election was the last time the Tories won.
    If Hudak walks away with a majority, sure this riding is his, but all signs point to a Liberal victory across the province, and in this riding.
    14 06 05 PCLIB
    70.54.20.2
    This riding will stay Liberal. The demographics of the riding has changed over the year to be more liberal than progressive conservative. The so called Ford nation has been very inactive in Etobicoke this election given Rob and Doug's issues at the municipal level. Additionally the conservative candidate is basically non-existent in the area north of Eglinton. Without gains in this area, the conservatives have no hope.
    14 06 04 Pawel
    184.145.22.24
    Yvan seems to be building momentum in this riding, but it might not be as big as a Donna win. However, handing out letters that has Donna giving all her support to Yvan could pull the senior vote toward Yvan. For now lean Liberal.
    14 05 22 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    Doug Holyday's *actual* home riding, as opposed to the one he's presently representing--and also that of the entire Ford clan. Given that, plus the seat's long-term history and that the designated Grit replacement for Donna Cansfield isn't exactly stellar, no wonder it's been suggested that the Tories may be poised for a 'seat swap' w/Holyday. Well, at least if the toxins associated w/the Ford name (and Martino's associations thereof) can still be overcome. Remember the lessons of recent provincial-federal electoral history: Etobians are so 'conservative', they'd sooner opt for tried-and-true Liberal caution than contemporary Regressive Conservative radicalism...
    14 05 15 The Jackal
    50.100.40.135
    If Donna Cansfield was running again here I would give this to the Liberals. However, with that not being the case and with PC party making inroads in Toronto (according to recent polls) This one will likely go blue.
    14 05 13 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    There is no incumbent in this riding as Donna Cansfield is not running again for the liberals . it was won by a big margin previously for liberals but without mpp and lower liberal numbers province wide it might turn out to be a lot closer this time. It used to be one of the safest Ontario pc seats in Toronto when the party held many seats in the 416.
    14 05 13 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    There is no incumbent in this riding as Donna Cansfield is not running again for the liberals . it was won by a big margin previously for liberals but without mpp and lower liberal numbers province wide it might turn out to be a lot closer this time. It used to be one of the safest Ontario pc seats in Toronto when the party held many seats in the 416.
    14 05 09 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    Too early to call this one. This is after all one of the ridings that the PC's, with the right campaign can pick up. With Cansfield gone, this is ripe for the picking. Lets forget what happened federally, if one looks at the riding history, Alan Rock, the Liberal cabinet minister won it with over 60% in '97, then two years later, Stockwell won it for the PC's with over 50% of the vote, a year and a half later, Rock won big again. The Tories have a good shot, but it remains to be seen what kind of campaign them and the Liberals run.
    13 09 14
    198.200.89.110
    Overall liberal vote might be a bit reduced, but even with marginal losses that still leaves this seat in the liberal column. Harper barely won this one federally (21 votes) at the height of conservative dominance. Cansfield will surely hold on.
    13 03 30 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    Not calling this one just yet, though Cansfield has the definite advantage, we still have to wait and see what kind of impact the gas plant cancellation will have in the west Toronto ridings, and what kind of a campaign the PC's will have.



    Navigate to Ontario 2014 Home | Regional Index | Submission

    Ontario Provincial Election - 2014
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2014 - Email Webmaster