Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek

Prediction Changed
2013-03-01 17:54:00

Constituency Profile


Brown, David

Burnison, Mark

Luksic, Ivan

Miller, Paul

Zink, Greg

Paul Miller


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Hamilton East-Stoney Creek)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    14 06 11 Thucydides
    Sorry A.P., you should take blinders off. Since you are so confident maybe you should stay home on election day. Realistically he NDP is bleeding throughout Ontario especially in Toronto, where several NDP strongholds such as Trinity Spadina, Davenport and Parkdale High Park are leaving the fold.The voters will punish the NDP, then the party will punish Andrea. The voters in Hamilton East Stoney Creek are no less sophisticated than Toronto and will likely follow suit. The Luksic team clearly won the campaign and should win the vote.I revise my prediction to a close Liberal win. Ivan Luksic is clear cabinet material.
    14 06 09 AP
    I have to disagree with the Liberal supporters posting here. While the Liberal candidate might believe he and his staff are out-canvassing his opposition, people seem to be forgetting the reality that is the Liberal government. I remember receiving Liberal literature months before the election was even called!
    People in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek know that the Liberal government is riddled in scandal. Sure, Winona is exhibiting change due to a build up, but that doesn't necessarily equal Liberal support.
    I honestly believe that when all is said and done, we may have the PC candidate in second place along with Miller in first.
    Liberals seem to believe Hamiltonians are really ill-advised when it comes to politics if they think they can muster majority support after the games they have played and money they have wasted!
    Plus, the Liberal candidate on every media platform I have seen him seems to work hard at denying his own party's platform, not to mention he was a no show for the CBC debate that made Miller and Brown seem like the only candidates left in the race!
    Combine all of these factors together and you will see Ivan is still in damage control and is making it blatantly obvious for all to see. Again, not surprising considering the actions of the government he supports.
    My updated prediction: Miller with a majority, Dave Brown with a distant second & Ivan Luksic in third.
    14 06 08 Thucydides
    In the four weeks since I posted, all of the assertions I made therein have come to realization. With the help of a group of dedicated, hard-working volunteers and gifted support workers, the Liberal candidate, Ivan Luksic has decisively out-campaigned, out-canvassed, outworked and out-signed a complacent Miller. In the only televised candidates debate, Luksic proved to be articulate, unflappable and confident without being arrogant. Compared a brusque. dismissive and plodding Miller. Regarding signs- the 'sea of orange' referred to by a fellow poster is a blatant misrepresentation. Luksic received the endorsement from former Liberal stalwart Sheila Copps, who is still held in high regard in the Hamilton East area of the riding. The demographics of the riding have changed significantly as rapid development continues in the Winona and Fifty Road areas. These newer subdivisions are demographically more similar to Brampton or Mississauga (traditionally Liberal strongholds) than to the working class NDP stronghold of East Hamilton and will likely go Liberal. The Lukcsic team has worked these areas hard. The unions are now leaving the NDP fold, as the 'Stop Hudak' becomes the clarion call for all progressive voters, who blame Horwath for triggering the election. With Horwath facing dissent from her own party faithful, her influence in this adjacent riding has faded. Notwithstanding all the partisan posting - time to call this riding for what it really is 'too close to call',
    14 06 08 A.S.
    In 2007, this became the first ONDP general-election pickup since the Rae landslide (though it was arguably a semi-successor to Horwath's 2004-byelected foothold); by 2011, not even the Lib-leaning ItaloSlav-burbia of eastern Stoney Creek could stop Miller from hitting the 50% mark. It's presently too much the nucleus of Andrea-land; maybe it'll be competitive later, in a post-Andrea era, much as the Thunder Bay seats became competitive post-Lyn McLeod...
    14 06 06 R.O.
    The ndp will more than likely hold there 3 Hamilton ridings , don't see the other parties being able to make much progress and Horwath being from Hamilton likely helps . there is still pc and lib voters in this riding but likely not enough to change the outcome .
    14 06 03 Brian M
    Miller is not assuming anything. He is going door to door with his wife asking for support. There are red signs out there, but within a sea of orange.
    14 05 20 AP
    Easily an NDP/Miller sweep. While apathy and disdain about politicians in general exists in many ridings, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek is still looking for someone who listens, a politician of the people.
    Having met Mr. Miller a few times, he comes off as a straight forward individual who isn't afraid to speak out. Something people here find as a very good thing as he isn't afraid to represent his constituents and call an opponents bluff.
    I have met the Liberal candidate Ivan recently, but did not feel the confidence to lead and listen were present. Understandable based on the issues surrounding the past Liberal government, putting Ivan in damage control mode.
    The PC candidate also has a very small presence in the riding, however his BBQ had some delicious food the other day.
    It now comes down to how much of a majority Miller will gain this election.
    14 05 18 jeff316
    There are enough PC and Liberal voters in this riding to make it an interesting three-way race under the right circumstances. These aren't the right circumstances. Paul will hold it, although it'll be closer than last time and closer than many expect. He's a solid local MP, although hot under the collar with many eager to see him go. His constant feuding with Andrea detracts as many supporters as it endears him to.
    14 05 16 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    Paul Miller is a popular community MP and got over 50% of the vote last time. And this is Hamilton.
    14 05 12 Thucydides
    Don't be so fast. The Libs have a strong candidate in Ivan Luksic who has been fighting this battle for a long time.He fought Larry DiIanni for the federal nomination and he had a previous nomination snatched away from him by a McGuinty appointee (Nerene Virgin). Luksic is bright- Queen' Law grad, former Bay Street lawyer, now Community College law professor, but has strong working class roots. Luksic is well known in the community- as former president of his ethnic organization. He is a strong speaker and will be a formidable debater. Horwath has stumbled out of the gate and many labourites are seeing that their best protection from Hudak rests with the Wynne Liberals.
    14 05 04 monkey
    Outside the GTA the Liberals are quite weak and unlikely to win here while the PCs with their perceived anti-union and earlier support of right to work laws, won't be a factor in this heavily unionized riding.
    13 02 28 seasaw
    The contest here is for second place. An NDP stroghold with good union support and a tremendous MPP like Miller is enough to put this in the NDP column

    Navigate to Ontario 2014 Home | Regional Index | Submission

    Ontario Provincial Election - 2014
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2014 - Email Webmaster