Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Barrie)
2011 Provincial Election Prediction
2011 Federal Election Prediction
2008 Federal Election Prediction
2007 Provincial Election Prediction
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| ||14 06 09
|I think Barrie will remain PC but it COULD be a lot closer than in 2011. Last time the NDP candidate received 19% of the votes when previous NDP candidates received about 9% in 2003 and 2007.|
Will the NDP candidate get 19% or even 15% this time? I don't think so. Will many of those voters decide to vote Liberal instead to try to defeat Jackson? It's quite possible. The Wynne Liberals have been attracting many former NDP voters. Jackson received 40.66% of the votes in 2011 so I wouldn't consider Barrie to be a safe PC if going just by the previous results.
| ||14 06 05
|The website threehundredeight has this riding leaning Liberal. However, I would almost call this a safe PC riding as the Liberal's last win here was based on two major factors:|
1) A star candidate for LPO who was a former federal cabinet minister.
2) That the John Tory led PC's had one of their worst campaigns that here. Not to mention that geographically this is very friendly PC terrority.
| ||14 06 02
|For all the hoopla of this being a certain open-seat pickup for the Tories in 2011, it's telling (not about him, personally, but more generally) that Jackson didn't do much better in victory than Joe Tascona did in defeat in 2007--but I'm inclined to agree that he's safer as an incumbent himself. Or given the dynamics of recent months, if he were genuinely threatened, it'd be more in the now highly unlikely event of a Horwath NDP landslide. (Yes: Barrie as NDP target. Hey, it was represented by a Rae-er in '90)|
| ||14 05 25
|I agree with Dr. Bear that this is likely to be a PC hold. (And I think 308 has now updated this seat to be PC). In order to win this riding, the Liberals would need someone like Aileen Carroll, who won in 2007. I don't know why she only stayed for one term, but if she had run again in 2011, she might have won again and the Liberals might still have this seat. For now it will likely remain with the PC's.|
| ||14 05 22
|Threehundredeight.com has this riding as a Liberal/PC toss up with the edge going to the Liberals. That certainly made me do a double-take and got me scratching my head. I might buy it was a good year for the Liberals and/or they had a star candidate. Barring either of those scenarios, this will be a PC hold.|
| ||14 05 20
|Rod Jackson should be able to hold this seat for Ontario pc's . other 2 main parties nominated late and don't seem that focused on this area . the other 3 ridings that surround the city of barrie are very safe for ont pc's so that likely contributes to barrie being a likely pc riding as well . |
| ||14 05 12
|Jackson has been a very active and visible MPP both in Queens Park and in his home riding. No Liberal candidate has been selected yet and 10 days into the campaign he is the only visible candidate in the riding and running aggressively. Hard to see this historically PC riding getting picked off from a strong incumbent by any other party this time around. Gotta be an easy PC hold|
| ||13 12 29
|Despite a weak provincial PC campaign last time around Jackson pulled out a hard fought victory here and hasn't taken his foot off the gas. He has won his ridings respect that seems to trancends party lines and continues to increase his provincial profile. If he maintains this pace he should be a solid lock in the next election.|
| ||13 04 10
|A traditionally Conservative town that surprisingly swung Liberal in 2007 due to a popular local candidate, I expect that Barrie will stick with the Conservatives in the next election, barring the emergence of a Liberal candidate like Aileen Carroll.|
| ||13 04 19
|Barrie has became a strong seat for both federal and provincial conservatives. If Hudak could flip this seat in 2011, he will hold it in 2013.|
| ||13 04 16
|It was close the last time, and the PC campaign was bad. This time, though, Rod can win his own merits, even if the PC campaign is bad|