Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Mississauga South

Prediction Changed
2014-06-06 08:22:00

Constituency Profile


Jones, Lloyd

Judson, James

Rosolak, Boris

Sousa, Charles

Triantafilopoulos, Effie

Weber, Andrew

Charles Sousa


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Mississauga South)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    14 06 09 A.S.
    Onetime PC bedrock that unexpectedly shifted away in 2003's McGuinty landslide--but now, under a heavy hitter like Sousa and with Mayor Hazel for the assist, it's looking like the unsinkable Don Valley West of Peel Region (with Clarkson and Lorne Park substituting for Lawrence Park and the Bridle Path).
    14 06 07 A.S.
    Once upon a time, Miss South was such Tory bedrock that Margaret Marland's defeat was one of the more conspicuous jaw-droppers of 2003 (after all, Marland had survived the 1987 disaster); but electoral demographics have since dragged it further t/w typically Mississaugan moderation--of course, it doesn't hurt for the Lorne Park/Clarkson moneyed class to be represented by a finance-ministerial big shot like Sousa. Thus, one might as well presently view Mississauga South as the ultrasafe Don Valley West of Peel Region--moneyed class and all.
    14 06 04 Pawel
    Have no idea why this is TCTC. Sousa easily in the bag! Hazel endorsement is icing on the cake.
    14 06 02 The Jackal
    If everyone but Charles Sousa was running for the Liberals here I would call this a PC pick up. As it stands now Sousa will win by 4000-5000 votes on election day.
    14 05 24 Karl
    Signs don't tell the whole story but they are important directionally and Charles Sousa is way ahead on that front. I cycle commute daily through central Toronto and am also riding the lakefront ridings to Oakville and back as I train for a bike tour. That takes me through residential neighbourhoods in seven ridings. This is far and away the most lopsided of them, with Effie barely registering. And I am talking about the more affluent southern parts of the riding in Clarkson, Lorne Park and Port Credit and Lakeshore Road itself.
    14 05 28 Marco Ricci
    Liberal hold for now. Charles Sousa was able to beat incumbent MPP Tim Peterson in 2007 (brother of Premier David Peterson). Sousa increased his margin in 2011, so he's demonstrated that he's a strong campaigner. Now Sousa is Minister of Finance, so barring any major collapse of the Liberal vote in the area, he should be on his way to another term.
    14 05 24 Arden
    I'd be quite surprised if the PCs were actually able to close a 14 point gap anywhere. Or any party for that matter. There hasn't been any sweeping changes in any of the polls, and Sousa is a pretty popular figure.
    Unless Sousa is not actually interested in winning, this riding is highly likely to remain liberal with the rest of Mississauga, just like last election when seats were allegedly 'contested.'
    14 05 22 Alice
    I think Sousa has this one nearly wrapped up. I expect the Liberals to hold here. I would be very surprised if they lost.
    14 05 18 LB
    Although this can be a right-leaning area, I think Sousa has this one in the bag. He is far more popular than his party. He has a strong and well-organized ground team. I live in the riding and he even appears to be winning the sign war (which is normally won by the PCs). Without an NDP or Green candidate, that vote will transfer mostly to Sousa. The Finance Minister easily holds his seat barring a total collapse of the central liberal campaign.
    14 05 16 Art
    Peel is the swing zone. PC voters are revving up to vote and Liberal voters are more likely to not vote. Once the debates pound home the billions of dollars in scandals and wastes, expect the PC revving to get much louder out here. Besides if you can't stomach PC, Gore Malton swung NDP in disgust. (Surprise!) Who needs the Liberals; NDP are the news Liberals. Still, NDP are a distant third here. The core PC voters are running around like rabbits, if the signage is any indication. PC
    14 05 08 SW
    Mississauga East Cooksville being one of the original 'bedroom communities' of Toronto since the early nineteen-fifties has large Northern and Eastern European communities, some of them now second and even third generation Canadians, There is also a larger more recent influx from Eastern Europe since the fall of the Soviet Union. These groups are hard working, ambitious, self sufficient and hold traditional moral values. They; including many of my own friends and relatives in the area, are generally not interested in hot button topics and financial mismanagement such as the power plants and ORNGE and OLG; they care more about a persons' moral character than they do about sharing indignation over some monetary outrage.
    This Riding, like many others, tend to lump all levels of all Political Parties together without distinguishing Provincial from Federal; and, with Justin Trudeau recently declaring all Liberals must be pro-choice and pro gay marriage, it does not bode well for the Liberal Candidate. It is interesting to note, in the last Federal Election, the Liberal Candidate (who was the former Liberal MPP) seeking to replace the retiring Liberal pro life Albina Guarnieri, was narrowly defeated by a previously unknown Conservative Candidate who is pro life and of Eastern European origin.
    14 05 06 SW
    If Sousa loses it's because that is what he chooses. If he wants to win, he will; all that has made him unpopular across most of Ontario (the power plants) has turned him into a heroic celebrity in his Riding of Mississauga South. Normally that would be considered a good thing for Charles; but there are many indications that he would much prefer to be the new Mayor of Mississauga; and it looks to some that he is trying to engineer his own defeat in a timely but not too obvious manner.
    Mayor McCallion, and more importantly, 'McCallion's Team' appear to be behind Sousa. The signs to watch for next are whether or not McCallion and her Team openly support Sousa running for the Provincial Election; or, if he has asked them to stand by and let him lose on June 12th so that he has time to make his grand announcement on let's say, umm, Canada Day?
    Also; a long serving City Councillor in Mississauga South; who in the past has been offered the Provincial Liberal Nomination (circa 2002/3) has not yet registered for re-election. And; the longest serving School Board Trustee in Mississauga South, with ambitions for a Ward Seat, has also not yet registered for re-election.
    14 05 05 Paul
    Sousa is getting lots of press, and not bad press. As Finance Minister, he is huge in cabinet and I feel that this riding is going to vote for him and not against Wynne. The PC's are going to be throwing lots of money at this riding to unseat him and humiliate the Liberals, but I see him survive.
    14 05 05 GG1427
    Sousa from Cabinet minister to Finance Critic. His strong presence will not help the backlash that this government will get and DESERVES after 11 years of mismanagement, corruption, deceit and overspending (with horrific results). Hydro, ORNGE, Gas Plants, deficits..the beats goes on.. and they are asking for another mandate?
    13 04 02 KS
    Finance Minister Charles Sousa should be able to hold on to this riding, although with a smaller margin.
    13 02 16 seasaw
    The previous poster, predicted no Tory seats in Mississauga. The recent polls, however show the Tories with a lead and in some cases a commanding lead in 905. If these numbers hold, they will win seats in Mississauga and this one will be the first to go blue. Charles Sousa, a nice guy, a smart guy with the potential to become one of Ontario's best Finance Ministers is quite vulnerable. Remember, this is one of the seats the Liberals attempted to save with the cancellations of gas plants, and unfortunately, Sousa's name is stuck to that.
    13 02 10 LFC Ottawa
    Always a seat the PC's can win, but they will once again have no seats in Mississauga. Sousa's promotion will make this a safe liberal seat, though he better get used to being finance critic instead of minister.

    Navigate to Ontario 2014 Home | Regional Index | Submission

    Ontario Provincial Election - 2014
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2014 - Email Webmaster