Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-11 10:16:08

Constituency Profile


Andrews, Scott

Baldwin, Jeannie

Barnett, Lorraine E.

Byrne-Puumala, Krista

McCreath, Jennifer

McDonald, Ken

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2000.56%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (182/223 polls, 73.03% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Scott Andrews

   St. John's East
   (41/223 polls, 26.97% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jack Harris


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15 10 07 Craig Hubley
Calling this Liberal because independents rarely do well on this island, and because the overwhelming Liberal tide in the Atlantic raises all, even undeserving, ships.
15 09 27 Gracie Griffin
Ask any candidate for proof of professional polling results and only one candidate without any party affiliation will be willing to lay the information out on the table. The traditional party support in this riding for this election will be put on the back burner in support of the individual.
15 09 21 Marco Ricci
*Avalon* - *Mainstreet Poll*
Liberal candidate Ken McDonald, a popular local mayor, has a comfortable lead with 37 per cent support among all voters, according to the telephone poll of 679 Avalon residents, followed by the NDP's Jeannie Baldwin at 16 per cent, with Andrews and Conservative candidate Lorraine Barnett both at 13 per cent.
Approximately 17 per cent of voters are undecided.
Among decided and leaning voters, McDonald is well out in front at 43 per cent, compared with 19 per cent for Andrews and Baldwin, and 14 per cent for Barnett, according to the poll.
15 09 21 Monkey Cheese
Finally - a riding poll and it looks like a solid Liberal hold. A riding poll from Mainstreet Research shows Ken McDonald with a very comfortable lead while Scott Andrews and the NDP are battling it out for second place. The Conservatives are in fourth. Interestingly enough, this poll doesn't mention the Strength In Democracy candidate.
15 09 13 Teddy Boragina
This one is really simple. Unless there is more evidence (what we have now, is not enough) that Andrews is truly locally popular, this one will go Liberal.
15 09 12 Marco Ricci
A couple of posters have mentioned the issue of Independent Scott Andrews and the fact that the 308 numbers don't take him into account. I was wondering about that myself, but according to questions that Eric Genier answered on Twitter this week, Grenier says he doesn't expect Andrews to be a big factor so his polling model doesn't take him into account. I'm not sure how Grenier concluded that Andrews isn't getting much support, but I thought I would add this to the discussion here.
15 09 13 Gracie Griffin
Traditionally a Liberal seat but Andrews will win this time as an independent. Mcdonald is relatively an Unknown outside of CBS and won his mayoral seat as a result of an anti-Woodrow vote. Scott had made a name for himself being the only ever MP from NL to have a private members Bill pass and he attends every single event in his riding. This election will be a personal vote for Andrews.
15 09 11 R.O.
I'm not sure about calling this riding , it's a tough one to get a feel for. although nationwide polls remain very close liberals do have a polling advantage out east . the former liberal mp is running as an independent and its tough to predict how much support he will get here. some independent mp's do well and others have a hard time breaking 10% of the vote. I'm really not sure how he will do out here but he has been the mp since 2008. The ndp and cpc vote here is also tough to predict , cpc candidate not as high profile as last time but still a riding with some tory history. I'm leaning too close to call still
15 09 11 Expat
Of the huge prediction update just completed, this is the only one that stands out to me as questionable.
I have previously predicted TCTC on this riding, and there have been two general updates since then.
1) Liberals have been trending up in Atlantic Canada polling
2) The NDP has picked a candidate (one much stronger than 2011, a PSAC Executive VP)
The major factors that still prevent this from being predictable at this stage are:
1) how well former Liberal now incumbent Independent Scott Andrews may be doing (which 308 is *not* accounting for, for anyone relying on those estimates).
2) How strong the Conservative candidate will be. Yes, they are polling down in Atlantic Canada, but a strong CPC and Independent former Lib would skew the numbers heavily. It's important to note that heavy redistribution added 6000 2011 votes to the NDP and 2000 to the Conservatives.
Long story short, this is TCTC until we get a confirmed CPC candidate and/or a riding specific poll. Until then it could even be a 4-way race...
15 09 05 A.S.
Let's remember re 2011 figures that Fabian Manning skewed the notional Con number upward at least as much as Jack Harris skewed the notional NDP number upward; and in the present environment, *only* a Ches Crosbie could have held or built onto that. Indeed, for all we know, that Jack Harris skew may be more inadvertently foretelling of what's to come in Avalon...
15 09 04 Marco Ricci
It was announced by NTV today that ministerial aide Lorraine Barnett is running for the Conservatives in Avalon.
She was a supporter of Ches Crosbie and says she is not happy with the way the nomination was handled, but she feels that she should run anyway so that CPC can still try to have one seat to represent them in Newfoundland:
15 09 01 Tony
Think Andrews holds on to this. Still seems popular despite everything that went on around him. Still no CPC candidate here, they could have made it interesting. As it is I think this could be a very close race on election night.
15 09 01 Marco Ricci
Latest polls show NDP support leveling off, and Liberal support rising. The Liberals have a substantial lead in Atlantic Canada according to the latest polls, with the NDP 2nd, and the CPC way down in 3rd. The Liberal lead may be even larger in Newfoundland, so the Liberals may have the advantage now in Avalon.
Late August Abacus numbers for Atlantic: LPC 47, NDP 31, CPC 19
Late August EKOS numbers for Atlantic: LPC 45, NDP 34, CPC 14
As Abacus reported yesterday, NDP support has dropped 5 points in the Atlantic region since their previous poll:
A riding poll would be useful in Avalon, (& in St. John's South-Mount Pearl) to give us a clue as to what is happening on the ground locally.
15 08 29 Marco Ricci
308 has the Liberals well ahead of the NDP in Avalon now (80% chance of a Liberal win): (August 29, 2015)
I certainly think it's possible for the NDP to do well here, but it's important to focus on the general trendlines, rather than the occasional blips on the projections.
The new polls that came out this week show the Liberals ahead of the NDP in the Maritimes, and they probably have a larger lead in Newfoundland itself compared to the other provinces.
We will have to see what effect Scott Andrews has here, but we may need some local riding data from within Newfoundland to get a better sense of what's happening.
15 08 24 PHYSASTR Master
The NDP are surging in the Atlantic provinces, and 308 has the NDP 1% back of the Liberals, NOT including the independent! That is to say that without Andrews this would be TCTC. With Andrews, this definitely leans NDP. Given the seeming lack of stability in regional polls I'd be reluctant on the call change, but I think it would be a reasonable decision at this point.
15 08 20 Monkey Cheese
People in this riding will be angry over the Conservatives blocking Ches Crosbie, Andrews' reputation is ruined because of the sexual harassment allegations, and the NDP are so far behind that they're irreverent in this riding. When I take that into consideration, along with high polling numbers for the Liberals in the Atlantic, they should safely keep this seat until a riding poll suggests otherwise.
15 08 16 R.O.
This is an unusual race with former liberal Scott Andrews running as an independent. This had been Fabian Mannings old riding which is why conservative vote from 2011 so high. But not really sure who conservatives are running this time. The riding also has some high ndp numbers from last election and they could be a factor here. This area has a lot of liberal history as well. I see a possible 4 way race here developing , which makes it too close to call for time being.
15 08 12 Craig Hubley
Now that Andrews has confirmed he was not bluffing and is running as an independent, and now that the unconvincing Wright testimony (getting very heavy coverage in Atlantic Canada) is driving anti-Liberal voters to the NDP somewhat in hope of honest government, I'm changing this to a TCTC.
I view it as a Lib vs. NDP vs. Independent riding with the Cons well back, and possibly wiped out due to the Crosbie issue and condemnation of old PC PMs (Clark, Mulroney) who were popular in NL and were patrons of NL Cons.
I almost called it NDP but 308 says 80% Liberal chance to win (no idea how or if they factor in the Independent) so I'll hold off until a bit later.
15 08 11 Marco Ricci
It was confirmed today (Aug 10, 2015) that Scott Andrews is running as an Independent:
15 08 10 Expat
Scott Andrews has officially launched his campaign to be re-elected as an Independent (having been forced out of the Liberal party). This was a fairly close 3-way race in the 2011 general election, and could even be a 4-way race this time if Andrews has support.
I won't make a prediction on this one right now other than TCTC. The Liberals will be hurt by Andrews running again, and the Conservatives will be hurt by Crosbie not running, plus generally bad regional numbers. The strength of the NDP candidate could be the factor that determines the outcome one way or another.
Reference: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/scott-andrews-to-run-as-an-independent-in-avalon-1.3186302
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
Even if Scott Andrews runs as an independent, the Liberals will still win. Andrews' reputation is now tarnished, innocent or not, and he won't be re-elected. The Conservatives have no chance here as well, especially after the mess with the Crosbie family. The Liberals are still popular and leading in Atlantic Canada and especially in Newfoundland. With the exception of St. Johns, I expect them to do well.
15 07 09 Marco Ricci
Now that CPC HQ has blocked Ches Crosbie from running here, they could be out of the mix unless they can find some sort of star replacement candidate. The Conservatives also still have low numbers in Newfoundland, both federally & provincially. The fight between Harper HQ & John Crosbie that blew up in the media last week could damage the Conservatives further here.
The Federal Liberals still lead in Newfoundland and probably have the edge here, plus their candidate is likely to be Ken McDonald, the Mayor of Conception Bay South, but the NDP is gaining ground in Newfoundland and may have a shot now. There is also still the Scott Andrews factor - he has not yet made a final decision about whether to run, and is expected to announce his decision by August.
This may now become an LPC vs. NDP race.
15 05 30 Craig Hubley
Old PCs vote Liberal now that MacKay is gone and Bill Casey, the only NS PC to stand with Danny Williams against Harper, is running for the Liberal Party of Canada.
I don't see Harper ever holding a seat in Newfoundland and Labrador again, and I have withdrawn all predictions that he will hold any seat anywhere in Atlantic Canada.
15 05 24 Canadian Election Atlas
The Liberals are very popular on the rock right now, and should have no problem winning this seat. Andrews running as an independent won't matter. His name is tarnished right now, and so voters wont elect him. While the Conservatives won this seat notionally in 2011, the Liberal lead in the province is too large for the Conservatives to have a chance. Things could change once we know who the candidates will be, though.
15 04 30 Aaron H.
Scott Andrews has announced that he won't seek reelection which will probably give an edge to the Liberals in a province that just does not like Stephen Harper.
15 04 06 Marco Ricci
Probably still leans Liberal, despite the odd situation here.
What's interesting is that none of the parties have nominated a candidate yet. Ches Crosbie (son of John) announced his intention to run for the Conservatives, but hasn't actually been nominated yet, so the Cons don't seem in a hurry here. The Liberals now have to find a new candidate to replace Scott Andrews, although since the Liberals are ahead in Newfoundland, they presumably won't have trouble finding one. And the NDP doesn't have a candidate here, either.
One of the questions will be where the NDP vote goes. This was a riding where only 14% voted NDP in 2011, but re-distribution now gives them 28%. Do those voters stay NDP, or will they vote Liberal as the best way of beating the Con? If those voters go Liberal, it could help make up for the loss of Liberal votes.
Time will tell.
15 03 30 2015
Seat is a bit of a mess with the MP probably running as an independent, boundary changes adding a huge amount of people who voted NDP last time and the most favourable Liberal section of the previous riding re-districted out, making it notionally a Conservative seat by 4%. Anyways with the Liberals up 25-30% on the NDP and Conservatives in NL, they will probably have enough votes to win even with the possibility of Andrews running against them.
15 03 28 monkey
Although this would be the Tories best chance for winning in Newfoundland, considering how wildly unpopular Harper is in Newfoundland and with Scott Andrews not running as an independent, this should be an easy Liberal win.
15 03 26 Fairview Resident
The Liberals are the favourites by a long shot. The Tories managed to pick up Avalon in 2006, and come close in 2008 and 2011 due to Fabian Manning's popularity. He isn't running and the Tories are way behind in NL. Scott Andrews still hasn't decided whether or not he will run as an independent. Even if he does, he won't draw sympathy votes exclusively from traditional Liberal supporters, and certainly not enough to split the vote and change the outcome.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Scott Andrews is an independent now, by no choice of his own. http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/massimo-pacetti-scott-andrews-out-of-liberal-caucus-for-good-sources-say-1.2999426
Given the circumstances he'll likely run as an independent, it's hard to imagine the politically correct NDP or Greens taking him. If Andrews were to run Conservative he might take this riding, but that's hard to see too.
Redistribution made this solidly Conservative on the numbers, but Peter Penashue forced to step down (followed by criminal conviction of Dean Del Mastro and Michael Sona, etc.), mean corruption and crime issues are on voters' minds in Newfoundland and Labrador when 'Conservative' comes up. Danny Williams pretty much evaporated the federal Conservative party here and it may never resurface, at least not with the quality of people they are getting. Scott Andrews trying to run Con might well sink them for good.
Conservatives will now be fighting hard for this seat above all others, as they will try to cast it as equivalent to Conservative electoral scandals (which it's not), and because if they fail to take a seat in Newfoundland and Labrador this time, their only claim to coast to coast representation is Leona Aglukak in Nunuvat - if she holds on. Gail Shea also might not hold on. Leaving Peter MacKay in a power position no ideological Harper supporter wants, within the Conservative Party of Canada.

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