Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:18:31

Constituency Profile


Jones, Yvonne

Penashue, Peter

Rudkowski, Edward

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (82/82 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Yvonne Jones


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15 10 06 Monkey Cheese
Reg Bowers, Peter Penashue's former campaign manager, has pleaded guilty to charges under the Canada Elections Act. It makes me wonder why the Conservatives wanted Penashue back in Labrador. You'd think they'd want someone as tainted as him as far away from their brand as possible. When you add in Danny Williams' latest criticisms of Harper, I fully expect that the Conservatives won't win a single seat in Newfoundland and Labrador.
15 09 13 A.S.
The most WTF Conservative pickup of them all in 2011--maybe even to party brass (after all, the N&L seat they were supertargeting was Avalon, not this one); aside from Penashue's known shenanigans, chalk it up to that Aglukkaqian aboriginal/territorial-far-north impulse to 'seek a voice in government'. But all's back to normal now under Yvonne Jones--what'd be interesting is if after all that's happened, Penashue *still* winds up with the highest (though certainly not winning, unless it's crazyland) CPC share in Newf&Lab.
15 09 07 #ABC51
Not only is Penashue going down, but he is also dragging the Conservative ship further underwater than it already is.
Even if this crook did have the best chance of winning Labrador for the Conservatives, somebody in the Tory brain trust should have had enough common sense to realise that it's decisions like this that will cause Harperman and his gang of losers to be relegated to third place.
15 09 03 Marco Ricci
CBC Newfoundland confirmed today that Peter Penashue IS running for the Conservatives:
Penashue is controversial because of the illegal donations scandal and because his 2011 campaign agent Reg Bowers was charged by Elections Canada this year. But it's possible that Penashue will still do well in Northern Labrador where his base of support is. Although Penashue lost Labrador to Yvonne Jones in 2013, he did win the Northern areas of Labrador. While Penashue will likely lose again, the Conservatives may feel that Penashue is still the best candidate they could run in Labrador under the current circumstances they face in this province.
15 09 03 Monkey Cheese
It's official. Peter Penashue is the official CPC candidate for Labrador. Maybe nobody else wanted the job?
As I said earlier, this will be a headache for the Conservatives considering his association with the election fraud scandal. The CPC just handed this one to Yvonne Jones and the Liberals.
15 09 01 Tony
Penashue or not, no way this doesn't go red, I think Jones could be a name to watch for cabinet should Liberals win government.
15 08 21 Marco Ricci
Peter Penashue announced this week that he is considering another run here and will make his mind up by September. Will the Conservative Party give him the green light?
Reg Bowers, the 2011 campaign agent for Penashue, was charged in May by Elections Canada with accepting illegal donations, so would the Conservatives want this controversy to surface again?
However, the Conservatives are having trouble getting candidates to run for them in Newfoundland -- only 1 of 7 ridings has a Conservative candidate so far (Kevin O'Brien in Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame). So some say it's possible that they may have to settle for Penashue if that's the only person who comes forward.
15 08 20 Monkey Cheese
There may be a headache for the Conservatives as Peter Penashue is considering running for the Tories here. Considering his involvement in an election fraud scandal and the Liberals riding high in Atlantic polls, I have a very hard time believing that he could possibly be elected again. Yvonne Jones will defeat him again if he does end up at the candidate.
15 08 16 R.O.
Peter Penashue did win this riding as a conservative in 2011 then went on to lose it in by election . it has been a pretty solid liberal riding and now that they have incumbent mp again its likely to remain a liberal riding. Its still a riding where conservatives at 30% and ndp at close to 20% in by election have some support but a very historically liberal area.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
After the Peter Panushue scandal and the blocking of Ches Crosbie, I doubt the people of Labrador will be gullible enough to elect another Conservative for a very long time. Yvonne Jones is a good constituency MP and is fairly visible for the Liberals.
15 03 28 monkey
Peter Panushue largely won here due to personal support in his neck of the woods, but when you consider the history of the riding, I expect the Liberals to not only win here, but do better than they did in the by-election as well.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
In the byelection this riding slammed back into the Liberal column. Ms. Jones is very safe. Unlikely the CPC will get another turn at this riding after the whole Penashue affair.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Not seeing any result but a Liberal hold here. After Peter Penashue it's unlikely any Conservative will win here ever again, except by bribing it with specific investment promises.
With so few voters, Labrador is also one of the easiest to shift by vote swapping. Which is another reason the Conservatives can't take it, they have no one to swap with.

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