Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

St. John’s East

Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:19:30

Constituency Profile


Burton, Sean

Harris, Jack

Peters, David Anthony

Stapleton, Deanne

Whalen, Nick

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   St. John's East
   (173/183 polls, 95.89% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jack Harris

   St. John's South-Mount Pearl
   (10/183 polls, 4.11% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Ryan Cleary


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15 10 18 DSR
M, One party's internal poll = One very large grain of salt.
15 10 17 M
Surprisingly, this riding is in play. Jack Harris is in deep trouble, being he is leading his Liberal opponent by just one percent. Given the Liberal momentum, this riding will be a Liberal win. http://bondpapers.blogspot.ca/2015/10/dhdm-2-st-johns-east-nlpoli-cdnpoli.html
15 10 13 Teddy Boragina
The Math!
Last time, the NDP took 33% across the province, while the Liberals took 38%.
It's quite possible the NDP could take only 15%, and the Liberals perhaps 70%
Maybe it's even worse, 10% for the NDP vs 80% for the Liberals!
And if that were true, we would see the Liberals beat the NDP by...
negative 17%.
That's right, the NDP lead here is so great that the math, basically, suggests it's impossible for the Liberals to beat them. Given the ABC movement in the province is still a strong as ever (if not stronger) I can say without doubt, there is no chance of the incumbent losing.
15 09 20 The Jackal
this only begs the question is this a NDP seat or a Jack Harris seat. We will find out when he retires. In the meantime it will be one the Orange team biggest wins in terms of votes.
15 09 01 Tony
Conservatives appear to have a contested nomination here but it'd take a lot to knock off Jack Harris. Can't see it happening to Harris who has close to a quarter century of elected political experience and if the NDP form government he is a shoo in for cabinet.
15 08 16 Sykes
One of the safest seats in Canada. Jack Harris has received more than 70% of the vote in two straight elections and his party is more popular nationally than ever. An absolute lock for the NDP.
15 03 28 monkey
If Jack Harris wasn't running the Liberals might have a shot, but Jack Harris has enough personal popularity he should easily hold this as long as he continues to run. The Tories used to do well here, but that was the old PCs, not the current brand so until the party proves they have returned to the political centre, they won't be a factor here.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
This is a Jack Harris riding and he will certainly keep his seat. While I am not ready to call St. John's an NDP stronghold (and the analogy city, Halifax is beginning to buckle under a potential red tide in the Atlantic provinces), it certainly has shifted to the left. It'll be interesting to see who wins here in a post-Harris election.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Calling this for the incumbent. St. John's is becoming like Halifax, solid NDP territory.
Jack Harris is the closest anyone can get to voting for Danny Williams, they being former law firm partners.
With the federal Conservatives collapsed, Newfoundlanders are concerned not to be taken for granted by the Liberal Party of Canada and therefore neglected. Keeping a couple of NDP incumbents in, helps serve that very canny political purpose.
With 70%+ support in 2008 and 2011, Harris is free to campaign for the other St. John's seat (St. John's South / Mount Pearl), in Avalon, and even could give the Liberals some trouble in Labrador if he so chose - which he would do only if the Conservatives looked like a threat there.
I honestly think Jack Harris' top priority will be to ensure there is no Conservative seat in Newfoundland and Labrador federally making federal issues a dialogue between the NDP and Liberals. And setting himself up to be federal NDP leader, if he stays in politics.

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