Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-21 12:41:17

Constituency Profile


Cann, Billy

Doyle, Teresa

MacAulay, Lawrence

Patkai, Julius

Squires, Christene

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (84/84 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Lawrence MacAulay


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15 09 20 SC
Lawrence MacAulay is invincible in this riding, and has been since 2004 (the first election after he got turfed from cabinet for nonsensical reasons).
I'd really like to know why Mad Caper is convinced that Bill C-51 is going to be some kind of election issue.
15 09 09 Marco Ricci
Macaulay could soon be the Dean of the House of Commons. With the BQ's Louis Plamondon currently in trouble in Québec, Macaulay may become the longest-serving MP elected on October 19, 2015 if Plamondon goes down. As to the numbers here, he won this riding with nearly 50% of the vote in 2011, and this year the current projections show him winning by even more.
15 09 05 A.S.
Funny how this has gone from being the most aggressively PC-challenged Liberal seat (back in the dying days of the PCs) to the kind of seat that the Libs could very well maintain even if they were Clegged--at least, unless the Cons were to return to being the PCs (after all, the enduring shadow of Pat Binns has ensured that this remains something of a PC stronghold provincially)
15 08 25 Mad Caper
This may be the only safe Liberal seat on the Island at this point in the Election.The Conservative support seems to have collapsed Atlantic wide and the BILL C-51 issue continues to rear it's ugly head for both the Liberals and Conservatives almost on a daily basis across the Country.How this issue will play out in this riding is up in the air to say the least and could be a wedge that Bill Cann the New Democrat Candidate could use to pull votes from both the Liberals and Conservatives as the New Democrats are recognized as the only main Party to vote against BILL C-51.This cannot but help the vote count for the New Democrats in what was recognized as the weakest seat on the Island for them before the recent Provincial Election results and may put them in 2nd place with the weakend Conservative support.For now a Liberal hold but 2 months is a long time.
15 07 17 L.O.
Probably the safest seat for the Liberals on the island. Macaulay has been very vocal on tourism issues.
15 05 11 madcaper
With the results of the Provincial Election being finalized and the increase in the vote for the New Democrats and the Green Party along with the Election Of the Green Party Leader to a seat in the P.E.I. Legislature it will be interesting to see if the Conservatives can take advantage of this and gain votes themselves Federally. Having said this it will make for a closer race. Just how close remains to be seen but for now it is still a safe Liberal seat.
15 03 28 monkey
Considering how far behind the Tories are in the polls here, I suspect the Liberals should easily hold this one. If there was a time for the Tories to win it was last election not this one.
15 03 25 Marco Ricci
Lawrence MacAulay appears to have become the safest Liberal on PEI. He was able to win nearly 50% of the vote here in 2011, despite it being a bad year for the Liberals. There is very little NDP challenge to him here since they only got 10% last time. The Conservatives have challenged here in the past, but since they are far behind in the polls in PEI they don't appear to be putting up a challenge and don't have a candidate yet.
15 03 19 Craig Hubley
Liberal hold. Even with the least popular leaders ever, PEI seats except one remained Liberal. The question for 2015 is whether Gail Shea goes and a Liberal replaces her, but the other PEI seats are really solid Liberal.

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