Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-21 12:41:17

Constituency Profile


Byrne, Joe

Casey, Sean

MacMillan, Ron

Viau, Becka

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 870.47%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (82/82 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Sean Casey


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15 10 02 Marco Ricci
According to the latest polling, the Liberal lead has grown in the Maritimes over the course of the campaign, and the NDP numbers have dropped off. (In fact, today's Nanos shows the NDP falling behind CPC in the Atlantic region).
Therefore, since it no longer appears that the NDP is likely to form a government, most voters will likely stay with Liberal MP Sean Casey. Liberal hold.
Nanos - Atlantic
LPC - 53.7
CPC - 22.2
NDP - 19.4
15 09 20 SC
All Tory efforts in this province are going into Egmont, and there's nothing terribly exciting about their candidate here anyway. Slackening Tory vote should probably shore up Casey's right flank, which will be useful since the NDP's returning candidate is a strong one. Much like Dickieson in Egmont, it's not impossible to envision him as an MP. But all the same, this has been a Liberal riding for almost 30 years at this point, Casey is a good MP, and the Liberals are running much more strongly than in 2011, when Casey became one of only two new Liberal MPs. I have no reason not to believe Casey will win.
15 09 09 Marco Ricci
This was one of only 2 seats in Canada that the Liberals were able to win with a new candidate in 2011 (the other one being Kingston & The Islands). The NDP did obtain 25% of the vote, which was a respectable score, but that may have been because there wasn't an actual incumbent for non-Conservative voters to coalesce behind. With Sean Casey having had a high-profile in Parliament as Liberal Justice Critic, and now the incumbent, I predict most non-Conservative voters will line up behind Casey to beat the Cons, as they did in the other PEI ridings in 2011. It's possible the NDP could see another good score here, but I don't see the Liberals losing it since they are still on top in Atlantic Canada and the Conservatives remain down.
15 09 05 A.S.
Flip a coin as to which is the likelier PEI seat to go with a Mulcair trend: the one with the stronger 'natural' (because urban) constituency i.e. Charlottetown, or the one with a star candidate and Con incumbent i.e. Egmont. Or both. (Or neither.)
15 08 25 Mad Caper
With the New Democrats continuing to grow their support in Atlantic Canada and the Liberals losing support in this region the dynamics on the ground in this riding continue to change according to friends and relatives from all 3 main Parties who live in this riding.BILL C-51 continues to haunt the Liberals and Conservatives from one end of the Country to the other and this riding is no different and the one statement that is being heard alot in the area is that the New Democrats were the only main Party to vote against BILL C-51(the Spy Bill)and it seems to be translating into support on the ground for Joe Byrne the New Democrat Candidate.My contacts in the Charlottetown area say there is a definite feeling of change in the air as the Election progresses.Therefore at this point in time I will change my prediction to and New Democrat upset win.
15 08 20 A. Voter
I've read a couple of pundits predicting an NDP win in Charlottetown. The rumoured NDP strength may make this TCTC.
15 05 11 madcaper
With the results of the Provincial Election all but finalized and the fallout of the results of Justin Trudeau voting with the Conservatives on Bill C-51(THE SPY BILL as it is being called by most people)this Riding could get very interesting. The Conservatives and Liberals have passed a bill that is at this time very unpopular with the majority of the Canadian Electorate and this no doubt will result in a drop in support for both Parties. How long that drop will last is anyone's guess(might be a blip or it could be like a bad toothache that just will not go away.The New Democrats on the other hand have been unwavering in their opposition to this bill right from the beginning and could stand to benefit from the drop in Liberal and Conservative support. How much they will gain and if it will take hold in this Province is again anyone's guess. If it does have an impact on the numbers in this Province it will very much tighten up a race that was close the last time out(only 14% from 1st to 3rd which is only a 7 point turn around. The other factor to consider here is the Green Party with its newly elected leader provincially who won his seat fairly easily and is personally popular who will I am sure have some help from Elizabeth May. If they take vote away will it be from the Liberals and Conservatives or all 3 Parties.
Because of all the factors above I am changing my prediction at this point To TCTC.
15 04 23 Madcaper
When you consider the results in the last election were fairly close this could become a close 3 way race(the New Democrats won 25% of the vote last time)when you factor in the fact that Joe Byrne has been campaigning for over a year now. Should the New Democrats continue to grow in the polls and the Liberals and Justin Trudeau continue to slide this could also play a part in a very close 3 way race. Another fact to look at is if the New Democrats do well in the present Provincial Election this could help the New Democrats. All this said at this time I would have to say a Liberal hold.
15 03 28 monkey
Last election had the perfect set up for a Tory win with the NDP surge (lots of students and civil servants here) thus splitting the centre-left vote while the Liberals had no incumbent. This time around the Tories are down significantly in Atlantic Canada; Liberals are up with an incumbent, and NDP also down thus if the Liberals could win this in 2011, they should hold this even if Justin Trudeau messes up badly during the campaign thus costing him elsewhere.
15 03 19 Craig Hubley
Liberal hold. Even with the least popular leaders ever, PEI seats except one remained Liberal. The question for 2015 is whether Gail Shea goes and a Liberal replaces her, but the other PEI seats are really solid Liberal.
Charlottetown in particular benefits from a more science and high tech friendly government, as it's where the university is.

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