Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-21 12:41:17

Constituency Profile


Easter, Wayne

Hayward, Leah-Jane

Lund, Lynne

Stewart, Stephen

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (78/78 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Wayne Easter


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15 09 20 SC
Easter has a few close brushes in recent years, the narrowest of any of the incumbents, but with the Liberals strong in Atlantic Canada and a 50% increase in their nationwide vote since the last election, I don't see any reason to think he'll lose. All the Tory attention in the Island is going to Egmont.
15 09 09 Marco Ricci
With the Liberals well ahead in Atlantic Canada again, and with the Conservatives down, I think Wayne Easter is likely to be re-elected. Easter had a close race in 2011, but was able to hold the seat, and should be able to do so in a year like 2015 when the Liberals are trending up and the Conservatives are trending down. Meanwhile, it's likely that most NDP voters will stick with Easter as the best option of beating the Cons, as they did in 2011. The NDP finished a distant 3rd here in 2011, and with the Liberals on top in the region, I don't see the NDP as a threat at this point.
15 08 25 Mad Caper
Since my last post on this riding page the situation in the Atlantic Provinces has changed substantially.This was in my opinion a very close race out of the gate but the aparent collapse of the Conservative support in the region and the BILL C-51 issue seeming to dog the Liberals at every turn across the Country this riding could develope into a 3 way race if the New Democrats continue to grow their support in the Atlantic Provinces.This riding is definitely still TCTC and could be very interesting race in the next 8 weeks.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
The Liberals may be slipping in the Atlantic, but so are the Conservatives. The riding polls are still indicating that this is a Liberal hold and by a large margin. Wayne Easter survived the Liberal meltdown of 2011 and is a popular enough MP to hold off other challengers. The NDP may become competitive and might even take this riding once Wayne Easter retires, but for now, he holds his seat.
15 05 24 A.S.
Then again, let's not assume that a rising NDP/Green vote will automatically benefit the Conservatives; there are different dynamics at play provincially vs federally, and who's to say that disillusioned-by-Duffygate former Con voters won't jump into the Grit camp instead, thereby counteracting the presumed Grit bleeding into NDP/Green. (Though because this encompasses Bevan-Barker's provincial turf, it'll be interesting to see how well the Greens do *without* B-B as the candidate.)
15 05 11 madcaper
I beg to differ with Craig Hubley. This race was decided by only 671 votes last time out and the Liberals have been slipping in the polls for the last 8 months. This could very easily be a Conservative pick up if the Liberal slide in the polls continues especially when you factor in the possibility of the New Democrats and the Green Party improving their votes totals (especially the Greens)and you could have yourself a nail biter on Election night. Of the 4 Ridings on the Island this one is by far the closest and definitely TCTC.
15 03 28 monkey
Was close the last two elections and if the Tories were tied or ahead in Atlantic Canada I would say they would have a shot, but with the Liberals have a massive lead in Atlantic Canada, I cannot see how they could possibly not win this.
15 03 19 Craig Hubley
Liberal hold. Even with the least popular leaders ever, PEI seats except one remained Liberal. The question for 2015 is whether Gail Shea goes and a Liberal replaces her, but the other PEI seats are really solid Liberal.
Nothing about Malpeque suggests different. Voters who would like to retain the premium gourmet cachet of Malpeque oysters might be working to get rid of 'Lobster is the new bologna' Shea out of fear that she'll invent a new slogan like 'Oysters are the new hot dogs' or some such error.

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