| ||15 10 15
|| M K|
| All the TCTCs have to be called by Monday, right? |
If we have to settle on one, I'd say this is a 66% chance of Liberal pickup, and 33% chance of Conservative retention. National, regional and provincial trends since the close riding poll have only gone in the Liberals' favour.
Marco, the Conservatives had to replace a candidate here this year too, with MacKay's surprise exit announcement. Fred DeLorey has been working for the Conservatives in Ottawa, running 'back home' for a shot at the seat. I don't think that's a kiss of death but it doesn't help him either.
| ||15 10 14
|Time to make some final calls on the TCTC ridings. With MacKay gone, I think Central Nova will become red just like most of the neighbour ridings. Liberal gain.|
| ||15 10 13
|It's been hard to know whether the Liberals can win in Central Nova this year for a couple of reasons.|
1. The Liberals had to replace their candidate here half-way through the year.
2. The Liberals have finished low here in recent years, behind not only the Conservatives, but also the NDP. And some Liberals did not like it when Stéphane Dion chose not to run a candidate against Elizabeth May in 2008 when she wanted to take on Peter MacKay. Martha Hall Findlay brought this up at the Liberal Leader debates in 2013.
On the other hand, if the NDP is fading here, and the Conservatives remain down, it's possible the Liberals could get a nudge over the finish line. They were running 2nd in the Mainstreet riding poll last month. If it looks like Trudeau is entering Election Day on Oct 19th in a strong position, perhaps they can win here afterall.
I think there's still a possibility of the Conservatives holding on if there is a vote split between the Liberals & the NDP.
But Robert Fife reported on CTV News last night that the Conservatives are telling him they are worried about losing 12 of 14 seats in Atlantic Canada, so maybe this will be one of their losses afterall.
| ||15 10 11
|With the Liberals polling over 50% in Atlantic Canada, only a couple of NDP members that may survive. Tories are facing a complete shutout in Atlantic Canada. Liberal gain.|
| ||15 10 12
||Atlantic Election Guy|
|This is a riding that will be greatly affected if voter turnout rises among 18-24 year olds. With St. FX in this riding, increased voter turnout on campus as was reported last week is big. With the liberals surging and the youth vote highly possible here (with Rick Mercer's help) this should go to the LPC. |
| ||15 10 05
|Finally calling this Liberal. The riding level polls were damaging to the NDP, and it seems there is still resentment about Dexter era provincial politics that affects Landry badly. But the most damaging thing to the NDP was threehundredeight shifting this riding back to a bare 53% Con odds to win again. That will send all the Greens en masse to the Liberal, even if they don't have the presence of mind to line up a vote swap in BC for their compromise here. And it will send soft NDP votes to the Liberal too.|
This is a one-time chance to break the Conservative incumbent hold on this riding, and I don't think Central Nova dissidents will fail to unite now.
| ||15 10 06
|Liberals are just too strong in Nova Scotia, enough that even here, where they came a distant third in 2011, I predict they will be victorious. Close second for the NDP.|
| ||15 10 01
|I think as of October 1 that this is a rare three-way too close to call.|
Factors favouring the Conservatives: A candidate well aware of back room tactics and priorities and literally one of the Con's dirtiest operators, panic by NS Conservatives fearing total collapse and thus donating and volunteering into this riding rather than their own, and being next door to incumbent Scott Armstrong who is in trouble but has incumbency edge.
Factors favouring the Liberals: A general Liberal surge and Trudeau's continuing popularity in the region, Conservatives who have given up on the Harper party shifting Liberal to block the NDP, and Greens unwilling to vote NDP due to the 2008 vote split that defeated Elizabeth May here but still willing to vote Liberal due to the goodwill from Dion-May deal.
Factors favouring the NDP: A strong Central Nova organization that took full advantage of the recent NDP surge and lack of incumbency to recruit, a very strong candidate in Ross Landry with cabinet experience, and the focus from being the only NDP prospect for a new NS seat outside SSSM. As with the Conservatives, NDP donations and volunteers will pour into this riding, and perhaps vote swaps too especially if Greens offer to hold their nose and forgive 2008 if NDP in Fredericton vote for Green Babineau.
This one will be too close to call until election night. It's no one's safe seat.
| ||15 09 26
|Polls! So many polls! The 'Vote Together' poll shows a massive Liberal lead. Mainstreet says that this is a close threeway tie. 308 is now showing this as a potential Liberal gain (56%, as of September 26), but with potential for a Conservative hold and marginal NDP gain. With all of these conflicting results, I agree with Marco that this should remain TCTC until a couple days before the election. Even then we might not know until after the votes have been counted. Until we get a couple credible polls showing us a clear pattern, I think this will be one of the closest and most exciting ridings to watch (at least in Atlantic Canada) on October 19.|
| ||15 09 24
|Yes, I agree that this riding should be TCTC. The recent Mainstreet Poll showed a 3-way race and the seat projections by Bryan Breguet and Eric Grenier also show a close race. If there continues to be a split vote between the Liberals & NDP, that will give the Conservatives the edge, but it's also possible that the non-Conservative voters will coalesce behind one party and that the Conservatives could lose here.|
A riding to watch in the Atlantic as we enter the final 3 weeks of the campaign.
| ||15 09 23
|This is quite interesting development. A group called 'vote together' paid for polling in key conservative swing ridings in hopes of convincing locals to vote strategically to vote for the most likely candidate to win to avoid the vote split. |
Central Nova had a surprising result.
Decided Voters: LIB 50% CPC 23% NDP 20% GRN 7% via http://www.votetogether.ca/pages/localpolling/
They show a 27 point lead among decided voters. This of course begs the question, will it be this big when the undecided voters make up their minds? Does the accurately show the feelings in central nova? Will it translate to the polls with about a month to go? Regardless this snapshot definitely shows the liberals are not out in this riding. It's going to be tight.
| ||15 09 21
|A poll by Mainstreet shows DeLorey in the lead on 36% of 'decided and leaning' voters, compared with 30% for Fraser and 26% for Landry. The opposition simply hasn't gotten its act together sufficiently to put one of Fraser or Landry over the top, and I suspect this will remain the case as election day nears. This will quite possibly be the only seat that goes Tory in Nova Scotia.|
| ||15 09 21
|Unlike in Avalon & Cumberland-Colchester where Mainstreet shows a fairly clear lead for the Liberals, Central Nova shows the Conservatives holding a narrow lead because of a split between the Liberals & NDP:|
*Central Nova* - *Mainstreet Poll*
Tory candidate Fred DeLorey, a longtime Conservative Party of Canada political operative, leads a three-way race in Central Nova with 29 per cent support of voters, followed by Liberal candidate Sean Fraser at 22 per cent and the NDP's Ross Landry, a former provincial cabinet minister, at 19 per cent. The Green party's David Hachey is well back at six per cent.
There are also a significant number of undecided voters in Central Nova, with one in four electors (25 per cent) uncertain how they'll cast their ballots, according to the telephone poll of 652 residents in the riding.
Among decided and leaning voters, DeLorey leads with 36 per cent support, followed by the Liberals' Fraser at 30 per cent and the NDP's Landry at 26 per cent.
Approximately 81 per cent of DeLorey's supporters say they won't change their minds, according to the poll, which leaves him ?well positioned,? Valentin said.
?His biggest nightmare has to be that the vote doesn't split and that someone, either the NDP or the Liberals, manage to coalesce that change vote against him. Otherwise, he's sitting pretty right now,? Valentin said.
| ||15 09 21
|I hate having to change my predictions, but it appears this riding is closer than I thought. Mainstreet had a poll that has the Conservatives ahead, although not my much, and it is the Liberals who are close behind. Prior to this poll there was only 308 to go on. Again, this is Mainstreet, but this presents a much closer threeway race than anticipated. Until a more reputable pollster comes around I'll play it safe and say that this is now TCTC. I don't think Central Nova should be called for anyone yet. It's still anyone's game.|
| ||15 09 16
|Not sure why this was called for the Conservatives at this stage in the game. 308 is still calling this one for the NDP (they have a 61% as of September 16). The Conservatives are doing terribly in the Atlantic and Eric Grenier's analysis of the region still lists Central Nova as a NDP gain. This should be moved to either 'NDP gain' or at the least moved back to TCTC. If MacKay stuck around this without a question would have been a Conservative hold, but since they have a fairly week candidate and Harper is deeply unpopular in the region, I still see this one going NDP.|
| ||15 09 12
|This is going to be an interesting riding with McKay gone and should make for a three way race. But with the current polling numbers for the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada, I can't see them winning any seat east of NB and if they drop further, any seat east of Ontario. Even though the NDP has a good chance, I do think this one will go Liberal. TCTC for now.|
| ||15 09 05
|This should be an interesting riding to watch, and I have no idea what will happen here. However, I will say leaning to the Conservatives but a long campaign to go. 308.com or whatever it calls itself now, has it going back and forth between the Tories and NDP, depending on what day you check the polls. Strange that yesterday it was saying 56% chance of NDP win, but today, even with the Tories dropping to third nationally, it's the opposite, saying 56% chance for Tories.|
| ||15 08 14
|I live in Pictou County and work on the Eastern Shore (both parts of Central Nova). In all my travels, so far, I have not seen an NDP sign yet this election (I'm sure there are some somewhere). A good amount of Liberal and Conservative signs, however.|
In 2013, the voters in these areas outright rejected the provincial NDP/Darrell Dexter government and gave the boot to the NDP MLAs in these areas -- including the NDP's candidate Ross Landry. Pictou area returned to PC blue, and Antigonish/Guysborough/Eastern Shore went Liberal red.
The latest federal polls show that Atlantic Canada is strongly supporting the Liberal Party this time around. There does not seem to be an NDP wave in Atlantic Canada as there is in BC, for example. Therefore, I have to give the Liberals an edge over the NDP here in Central Nova for the anti-Conservative vote.
I personally think the Conservatives will win because of vote splitting in the ABC vote. Fred Delorey is from Antigonish (which voted Liberal in the 2013 provincial election). He will likely draw some Liberal support to the Tories there, and will likely hold much of the Tory support in Pictou County.
I definitely can't see the NDP winning here. There is no evidence to suggest the conditions are better for them to win compared to other federal elections.
| ||15 08 10
|'Longtime Conservative staffer and Stephen Harper adviser Fred DeLorey will carry the Conservative banner for Central Nova in the fall federal election.|
DeLorey beat Pictou resident and retired principal Jim Ryan at the riding's nomination meeting on Saturday night in Stellarton in what the association called a ?hot and closely contested vote.?
...In 2012, The Hill Times named DeLorey the ?best political spinner in Ottawa? ' - http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/1301482-fred-delorey-wins-conservative-nomination-in-central-nova
When the Chronicle Herald opens your campaign by calling you a 'spinner', 'staffer', basically a parachute candidate who isn't wanted by grassroots types, it's never good. Central Nova may well become an ABC riding now.
If the Conservatives take this it's due to a vote split, although the NDP has historically run second here lately, and have a mild edge over Liberals especially as Bill Casey hsa a mild edge next door. Like the south end of NS, there are family picnics happening right now with folks agreeing informally to support the post-Harper candidate in each of this riding and Cumberland-Colchester. The problem is, unlike the south end of the province, there's not necessarily a clear leader in either of these, so far more chance of a vote split that retains at least one Conservative.
People like Fred DeLorey however have no power or influence except in a majority government, which few or no Conservatives in this region expect. Like Richard Clark he's a desperate drop-in loyalist to hold the party line in a seat that might otherwise nominate someone from Nova Scotia.
His reception will be likely similar to what Mike Duffy gets in PEI.
| ||15 08 07
||Follow The Numbers|
|I'm changing my earlier prediction to this riding leaning NDP. The NDP are continuing to eat away at their support and have now surpassed the Liberals. They also appear to have a star candidate in former police officer, MLA, and Justice Minister Ross Landry, assuming he wins his nomination. The Conservatives have two no-name candidates running for their nomination in a high school principal and a constituency assistant. This is a huge boost for the NDP here and I predict that many Liberals and Greens will hold their noses and vote NDP in an effort to take another Atlantic seat away from Harper, who is still very unpopular in the region. It's still early and I'll revisit this riding again in the final stages of the campaign.|
| ||15 08 04
|If Peter Mackay were running, this would be an easy Conservative win.|
But with the Maritimes being a Liberal stronghold (the poll numbers I am seeing say this is still true), the Conservatives will have to work to keep this riding.
One thing the Conservatives do have going for them is a surge in NDP support nationally. If that bleeds some Liberal support, the Conservatives could take this riding because of a split on the left.
Too many things hinge on something else out of Conservative control happening for this to be an easy win though.
| ||15 08 04
|Having worked for elections here when I was younger (some 20 years ago) I remember an old Liberal (I will call Walter)from here tell me that Pictou County will never vote for an outsider. Upon hearing this I was skeptical at first of his observation until I witnessed this in the 1988 election. I worked on Rosanne Skoke's Liberal campaign when she defeated a popular PC cabinet minister to wrestle this seat from the Cons after long PC hold of this seat. Peter's father Elmer had retired just as Peter has now. The cons picked Ken Streatch that election to run for them. By all accounts the PC's should have won the seat and were expected to win. Though Walter is long gone now, if his prediction continues to hold in this day and age, with Pictou County having the majority of votes in the riding, could be possible the Cons have made a fatal mistake of picking another outsider this time around. History has a funny way of repeating itself. The NDP seems poised to capitalize on this, I guess we'll see, won't we Walter :) |
| ||15 07 29
|Without MacKay, this is by no means a safe Conservative seat, especially since they are putting up two weak, no-name candidates for the nomination. The NDP are slowly taking away Conservative support here and if they nominate the former provincial Justice Minister, they just might be able to take this one in an upset, although it would be a small one.|
| ||15 07 24
|With Mackay gone it will be tougher, but this is only one of two seats where the Tories have the edge in Nova Scotia. They'll put resources and work into this one. CPC hold.|
| ||15 07 24
|Since my last post on this page things have changed dramatically and there seems to be little doubt that this seat is very much up for grabs. With the departure of Peter MacKay from the political scene for the time being(I think he is gearing up for another shot at the Federal Leadership)and the resignation of the high profile Liberal candidate due to his disagreement with his Party supporting BILL C-51(commonly referred to in local circles as the SPY BILL) and the entrance of Ross Landry as a possible Candidate for the New Democrats in this riding and you have the makings of a New Democrat upset on Election Night|
| ||15 07 23
|Landry, assuming he wins the nomination, will give the NDP a name candidate against the Tories and Liberals, who will be running relative unknowns regardless of who they choose as their candidates. That may or may not be a good thing, since Landry's name recognition comes from being a prominent member of Dexter's unpopular government. It's probably also worth noting that Landry lost reelection in his provincial riding, Pictou Centre, by a reasonably significant margin (and the NDP incumbents in the other Central Nova seats all lost as well), though that likely can't be blamed on him personally, and he does have a nice list of accomplishments from his time as Justice Minister and local MLA.|
I still maintain that this riding has a long Tory history that is tough to upend and if I had to put money on any party here, it would be the Tories (even without MacKay). I will re-evaluate closer to election day.
| ||15 07 22
|While I say this riding is still the CPC's to lose, the NDP have much to gain here. In previous election-prediction-go-rounds, we've seen the NDP do quite well in these parts and there's always those who have (rather foolishly?) predicted MacKay's downfall. MacKay has now moved on and the NDP are surging just about everywhere. Polling numbers suggest that an NDP pick up is not so silly an idea any more. To close to call.|
| ||15 07 13
|The race for Central Nova just got even more interesting.|
Former NDP M.L.A. and Justice Minister Ross Landry is seeking the NDP nomination on July 26th.
If he does win the nomination, he'll be a very high-profile candidate in this open seat.
This one may be T.C.T.C. until election day.
| ||15 06 19
|Peter NacKay's sudden resignation makes this one TCTC. The Conservatives are in serious trouble throughout the Atlantic region, and absent a star candidate they are at least as likely to lose Central Nova as to retain it. The open question is whether the Liberals or the NDP have the best shot at beating the Conservatives. Indeed, the Conservatives must hope that the other three parties split the vote in such a way as to allow the Conservative candidate to squeak through.|
| ||15 06 06
|To even *entertain* the notion of Elizabeth May returning to Central Nova is laughable; and let's also remember that the Liberal candidate withdrew around the same time as MacKay made his announcement, so not all is necessarily well in *that* camp, either. And as for the NDP--they made a lot of their boldest provincial gains here in the Dexter landslide, but also suffered lot of their boldest reversals here in Dexter's defeat. So, we're in 'anyone's guess' territory now, especially with the apparent faltering of the Justin Liberals at large...|
| ||15 06 04
|Peter Mackay leaving politics does create a much different race in the Central Nova riding. However if we look at some other ridings where high profile conservative mp's have left since 2011 and had by-elections they all stayed blue. Jim Flaherty's old seat in Whitby Oshawa , Bev Oda in Durham , Vic Toews in Provencher , Brian Jean in Fort Mcmurray and Ted Menzies in Macleod . true some of these races were much closer than in years past once seat became open they still stayed conservative. Opposition parties will likely improve numbers here but to suggest there going to win the seat might be a bit premature. |
| ||15 06 03
|I have to disagree with anyone who says that this riding is gone for the Tories. |
Having grown up here, this is a very Tory area (although not especially small-c conservative). Pictou County (which has the majority of the population) has entirely PC representation on the provincial level, and while the more right-leaning federal Tories don't tend to attract as much support on the east coast as the moderate provincial ones do, old habits and political bloodlines really do die hard in this area.
It should also be remembered that the Tories are the only party that has serious organizational strength in the riding. The Liberals have some organization on the Antigonish end but are still reeling from the 2008 'Red Green' deal (not to mention the unpopularity of the McNeil government). The NDP has something of an apparatus, especially in Pictou County, but it has likely weakened considerably since the party's big provincial defeat in 2013. And neither the Liberals nor the NDP has a candidate right now.
That being said, party insider Fred DeLorey, who grew up in a relatively underpopulated part of the riding, would be an odd choice for a Tory candidate and one who could potentially put the seat at risk for them. I don't think local people will be impressed by his credentials. A respected area businessperson/lawyer/etc. would be a better choice, I think.
| ||15 06 03
|Peter MacKay's exit is a surprise and a blow to the Cons nationally, but particularly for Red Tories and for Atlantic Canada. It looked like a dog fight between the Liberals and the NDP, but after David MacLeod bowed out (perhaps because he suddenly had a real chance of winning?), I think the NDP has a bit of an edge here. While it's still TCTC, the NDP has performed well since 2004 and, perhaps, a little momentum. I agree with Craig Hubley's statements, but am not convinced that Elizabeth May will run here, as leaving Saanich-GI would be a blow to her own party, especially when the Greens are making real headway in BC, particularly on Vancouver Island. |
| ||15 05 30
|With Peter MacKay resigning this is now too close to call. While this is normally a Conservative riding, the Tories due to their EI changes have taken a big hit in Atlantic Canada and with Peter MacKay not running this just might be enough to tip this to the Liberals or even NDP. Until we get closer to the campaign and see who the candidates are, too close to call.|
| ||15 05 30
|With Peter MacKay and David MacLeod *BOTH OUT*, this race has a mild NDP edge, but several things could change that: 1. A star candidate. 2. Elizabeth May returning home to run in the seat she came a reasonably close second in 2008 3. A collapse of NDP support in Nova Scotia where it seems to be on the rise.|
More importantly is the effect that losing MacKay, who was one of exactly two old-PC-tied Conservative MPs left in Atlantic Canada (the other being Bernard Valcourt), has on the Conservative Party of Canada. By signalling that he may come back to politics, MacKay has essentially told the federal old-PCs in Nova Scotia at least that Harper must lose this election so it's possible for MacKay to come back as leader. Less directly he is hinting to provincial PCs that they will be forced into a merger with Liberals long term as in BC and Quebec, unless they can offer a viable leader with some national 'stature' which is what MacKay imagines himself to have. Making absurd cracks about running for 'Mayor' in future only highlights these key signals. Harper scrambled to Nova Scotia to put on a great show of being appreciative of MacKay, but that is fooling no one except Globe columnists.
Wiser commentators should put MacKay's departure, the nomination of young ideologues like Richard Clark in South Shore when old PCs were running for the nomination, and Bill Casey's and David MacLeod's running Liberal, all into a narrative regarding the eventual merger of PCs into the Liberals at the provincial level, and MacKay's role in literally every alternative scenario. That is, without MacKay, old PCs have to join the Liberals at both federal and provincial level, and this election will make that clear.
That's what happened in BC and Quebec, where the provincial Liberals are a moderate centre right party. Nova Scotia is taking exactly that path now.
Whether federally there is also a #LibCon merger, depends much on MacKay, as he is an unacceptable Liberal candidate both federally and provincially. Thus whether a PC or Conservative presence continues in Nova Scotia at all is pretty much entirely a question of whether MacKay personally comes back.
But for 2015, it's time for old PCs to choose the NDP, Liberals or Greens.
| ||15 05 30
|With Peter MacKay out of the picture, the Conservatives are now in grave danger of losing this seat and they surely know it. Expect them to pour resources into this one to save it. If the NDP campaign this election is as strong as it was the last time, I think they will take this.|
| ||15 05 30
||Follow The Numbers|
|Peter MacKay has announced his retirement from federal politics and isn't running again. Unless the Conservatives find another MacKay or a star candidate, this riding is now a prime Liberal pickup when you consider their polling numbers in the Atlantic.|
| ||15 05 30
|Peter Mckay retired today. This was one of the easiest ridings to predict had McKay stayed, but now that he's gone, one thing I can say is that this riding will probably not go Tory. It's a toss up between the Liberals and the NDP, don't know who'll win.|
| ||15 05 29
|Peter McKay is not running again and the Liberal candidate has resigned|
This is now an open riding ....
| ||15 05 29
|Peter MacKay will be leaving politics and will not be running for re-election this year, despite being renominated a few months ago.|
Nova Scotia journalist Dan Leger says this seat is now in play.
| ||15 05 29
|Peter announced he is leaving politics, and is nor running again. This really could go either way!|
| ||15 05 24
||Canadian Election Atlas|
|I wouldn't be so sure of a Conservative victory here. Sure, Peter McKay has continued to win this riding, but rarely by huge margins. In fact, 2011 was the first time he ever won a majority of the vote in this riding. With the Liberals polling very well in Nova Scotia, they may win a surprise election here. |
| ||15 04 26
|Like Maxime Bernier in Beauce and Julian Fantino in Vaughan, Peter MacKay is popular among his constituents, whatever his foibles as a Cabinet minister. MacKay could be the only Conservative left standing in Nova Scotia. |
| ||15 04 10
|Few candidates deserve to be defeated more than Peter MacKay, but the chances of it happening are very slight. His performance as a minister in more than one portfolio has been unimpressive, and there's surely little doubt that he would have been bounced from the cabinet some time ago had it not been for the fact that he delivered the PC party to Mr. Harper's Reform Alliance. Look for Mr. MacKay to be re-elected. However, should he get less than 40% of the total vote, it will be an early signal that the Conservative party is in trouble nationally.|
| ||15 04 10
|Craig Hubley is absolutely correct about this riding. MacKay is a flawed MP and minister and most people here know it, but dang it, he is THEIR flawed MP and minister. Whether earned or unearned, there is a lot of affection for him here (although not so much for Harper).|
Also, the Tories always have a natural edge in this riding. It is the default party for most people in this area of the province, and it would take a big wave for one of the other parties to take it from them (like in 1993 when the Liberals won every seat in Atlantic Canada except for 1). I don't have a sense that such a wave is coming, although who knows.
To add to this, the Liberal candidate has a good resume but politically untested, and the NDP, which always has some degree of strength in this riding, will likely split the anti-MacKay vote.
| ||15 04 12
|When you look at this riding from all sides of the picture it is a riding that is presently out of focus due to the fact that Mr. McKay has made his fair share of gaffs in the past 3 years, couple this with the resurgence of the liberals across the Country and the fact that the N.D.P. Federally are also on the rebound and this riding could be a very close 3 way race. The one thing that could influence that situation is the fact that the Liberal Party have been falling in the polls the past 2 months. If this situation continues then you may see a resurgence in the N.D.P. in this riding and a nail biter on Election night. For now it is TCTC.|
| ||15 04 13
|Should be an easy hold for the MacKay dynasty. Even with a monumental collapse in Nova Scotia for the Conservatives, this riding has been in family hands for over 30 years and is not likely to change this election.|
| ||15 03 28
|The MacKay family has long held this area and also this area is generally more conservative than most parts of the province. Since this is likely Harper's last election as Conservative leader, I suspect MacKay will win again simply on the basis he could very well be the next Tory leader and that will probably be what allows him to be one of the few Tories to win in Atlantic Canada and in fact likely the only one in Nova Scotia.|
| ||15 03 18
|Peter MacKay has been well known as a liar and sneak since the big lie to David Orchard, and no one has ever forgotten that. No one trusts him on Bill C-51. People look askance at him appointing his friends as judges. But regardless he is Central Nova's *OWN* liar and sneak and they believe in him. |
Only a vast wave of vote swapping or a candidate that drops out in time to get his or her name off the ballot could cost MacKay this seat. Liberals - though not the party - might try to arrange that because MacKay is what stands in their way of recruiting literally every old PC into the Liberals.
The NDP however proved in 2008 that they will fight for this riding even at great cost to the province (the loss of Elizabeth May's voice to BC). Their supporters are foolish and fanatical. This can be an advantage if key Liberals decide to strategically concede this seat as they did in '08. But that has to include the candidate, and he's not a big quitter:
Peter MacLeod 'was a card-carrying member of the Conservative Party but became disillusioned ? in part, after Alberta Tory MP Rob Anders slept through a presentation he made with another Afghanistan veteran to a Commons committee in 2012. The incident provoked controversy after Mr. Anders characterized the two veterans as 'NDP hacks' for criticizing him for dozing off. The MP later apologized.'
This is the kind of Liberal we like in Nova Scotia - a disillusioned PC.
However, as neither the NDP nor Liberals are quitting this one, MacKay wins in a vote split, likely by a lesser margin than he has previously.
Unless someone gets smart and organizes a serious vote swap to ditch MacKay and move a pile of either Liberal or NDP votes to dozens of other ridings where they can win the seat. The problem is, it's not obvious who has the edge over MacKay, thus this riding is an unlikely target for that.