| ||15 10 01
|The NDP have stopped surging and are receding in the region, so I'm back to my original Casey/Liberal prediction. None of the other Conservatives in Nova Scotia have echoed Scott Armstrong's wise focus on broadband and infrastructure, but Justin Trudeau has indeed promised to invest in this, so I think that advantage is equalized. That's a major Conservative error, they should have had all their major candidates out promising rural broadband as good as Armstrong's riding has, or better. But they didn't, which sends a pretty strong message that it's patronage and pork not policy that determines who gets what from the federal government. Very bad optics for the Conservatives, which shifts more LibCons to the Liberal.|
And especially to Casey whom many Conservatives trust.
Because the Greens endorsed Casey in 2008 the Green vote can shift to the Liberals more easily than to the NDP who fought hard to split the vote for May in Central Nova and drove her to BC. Thus the usual willingness of Green voters to shift NDP elsewhere doesn't apply to this riding or Central Nova, and I think that's enough to remove the NDP from contention in 2015 given the NDP slump and the fact that they are running out of cash at the end of a long campaign.
NDP prospects are now so few in the Maritimes (South Shore St. Margaret's, Fundy Royal, and just maybe NB Southwest and more remotely Saint John Rothesay and Central Nova) that they cannot be directing volunteers, donors or vote swaps into Cumberland Colchester. This campaign is on its own, and it's not going to be a priority for Mulcair or regional figures.
Those NDP donations, volunteers and swaps are all needed in South Shore St. Margaret's where their sure thing is now not sure at all. Those soft supporters who want a Harper-free Maritimes are betting on Casey here, it is virtually certain that LeadsNow will endorse Casey here, and it's Casey's to lose now.
| ||15 09 23
|Yeah, this looks like a Casey riding, not a Conservative riding.|
| ||15 09 21
|*Cumberland-Colchester* - *Mainstreet Poll*|
The telephone poll of 660 adults in Cumberland-Colchester shows Liberal candidate Bill Casey ? a longtime former Tory who represented the riding for about 17 years ? leads with the support of 35 per cent of all voters, followed by Conservative incumbent Scott Armstrong at 24 per cent. The NDP's Wendy Robinson (eight per cent) and Green party's Jason Blanch (five per cent) are well back.
However, there remains a large number of undecided voters heading into the Oct. 19 federal election, with almost three in 10 electors (28 per cent) in the riding uncertain how they'll cast their ballots, says the poll, conducted on Sept. 17.
Among decided and leaning voters, Casey leads with 48 per cent support, compared with 33 per cent for Armstrong, the only incumbent Conservative seeking re-election in Nova Scotia.
?I would be really surprised if Mr. Casey wasn't successful at this point,? said pollster David Valentin, executive vice-president of Mainstreet Research. ?He's just a very, very popular personality out there. He's someone who's very well known.?
| ||15 09 21
|A Mainstreet non-partisan, large sample riding poll pegs Cumberland-Colchester as a Liberal pickup, with a big lead for Bill Casey among both decided and overall voters.|
If LPC polling numbers in the Atlantic region hold up as they have been, they're the party to beat in this riding. Riding polls like this have the potential to galvanize the ABC (Anyone But Conservative) vote in their favour.
| ||15 09 21
|I think that this can now be called for the Liberals. A new poll by Conservative friendly pollster Mainstreet Research shows Bill Casey with a comfortable lead over Scott Armstrong. I'd still like to see other riding polls from other pollsters to confirm this. Bill Casey is still popular and Stephen Harper isn't (in Atlantic Canada). There's a reason why both Harper and Trudeau have made campaign stops here. Unless the Liberal support collapses, I see no reason why Mr. Casey can't win this seat.|
| ||15 09 12
|Justin Trudeau stopped by a few days ago for a big event with Bill Casey.|
As was reported earlier in the Summer, Stephen Harper was here a few weeks ago. This would appear to back up the seat projection numbers showing a close race.
It will be interesting to see whether claims of a competitive NDP turn out to be true. So far I don't think Tom Mulcair has visited during the election.
| ||15 09 12
|I can't see the NDP winning this one. Most of the Conservative swing vote will move over to the Liberals, so even with a vote increase by the NDP this should go Liberal.|
| ||15 09 08
|Polls are showing the Tories are doing just awful in Atlantic Canada. Even though this is one of their most winnable ridings in the area, there is some growing consensus that the party will not win any seats east of New Brunswick (though, they may win 4 in that province) |
The NDP, while they could win here, likely won. If it was a head to head battle with a 20% (in the atlantic) CPC vs some NDP candidate vs some Liberal candidate, then yes, the NDP could win here; but as it stands the Liberals are running someone with history; in fact, the person who was nearly the 3rd PC MP in the huge 1993 loss. Casey('s legacy) may be outdated, but it still matters for a fraction of voters, and if things get close, that will be the fraction that counts.
| ||15 09 05
|Marco, My post was intended to inject some objectivity into the thread and talk about the things that EPP was intended for (i.e. local knowledge that can't be gleaned from the type of sweeping projections made by the likes of Eric Grenier and 308, LISPOP, and others).|
Like it or not, Casey's lack of support in Colchester County is one of those things. As is the fact that many people, although they appreciate Bill's nearly decade-old bugbear with Harper, are starting to ask serious questions about his(& Trudeau's) suitability. People around here are starting to wonder about Bill's motivations, and that sort of thing can dog a campaign and a candidate--regardless of the brightness of the candidate's halo.
What happens if Bill ends up in the opposition benches again? Does he quit and take another patronage job? What if the tide turns and the Libs win this and Justin doesn't give him a cabinet post? What if he ends up a backbencher in a NDP led minority coalition? Will he stick around? Is Casey willing to sign a public pledge saying that no matter what happens he'll serve out his complete term (as a Trudeau Liberal!)? Will he seek a second term? Or are Cumberland-Colchester voters being asked to give him abother chance to satisfy his (arguably strange) desire to settle a score (again)? What about the fact that Bill already collects a MP pension? How much is that pension anyway? Why has Bill turned on Armstrong, who was his campaign manager for the monumental independent win? What does that say about his true integrity?
Sorry to say, but regardless of any strategic concerns, these are issues and questions people in this riding are thinking about. And thinking about more and more every day of this long campaign.
Did Casey peak too soon? Armstrong and Robinson can only hope.
All candidates forums in the coming weeks will provide a better idea of where this race really stands.
| ||15 09 04
|NDP insider, wouldn't it make more sense for NDP voters who want to beat the Harper Conservatives to vote for Bill Casey? He's the most high-profile opponent the Conservatives have (and someone whom Harper views as a threat) and has won this riding in the past. When he ran as an Independent, many NDP, Liberal & Green supporters came together behind him.|
If the NDP is running the strong campaign you suggest, it seems to me that it risks splitting the non-Conservative vote and helping re-elect Armstrong.
| ||15 09 02
|When one looks objectively at the poll-by-poll results from 2011, the question that becomes apparent is whether Casey has the strength for the Libs in Cumberland to overcome the NDP and CPC support in Truro and broader Colchester. Zann and Burrill's NSNDP leadership candidacies have mobilized the NDP base on the riding more than it was in 2011. All local nuances that 308 or EPP (to a lesser degree) neglect to work into their models effectively.|
Rural ridings, especially in NS, are tribal about who and what they support and when (they proved that in 2008). County rivalries also run deep here, particularly between Cumberland and Colchester (or Cumberland and any other NS county for that matter). Colchester voters might reject Bill simply because he's seen to be Cumberland's man. Likewise, Cumberland voters might just do the opposite and embrace him. And if that happens, and the Libs only gain Cumberland, with its imbalance of popular vote and lack of urban concentration, Armstrong or Robinson could carry the bulk of support in the riding.
If any of the posters on here have been out supporting their candidate on the canvass, or even on the phone, they'd be able to attest to voter bewilderment about Casey's motivations. Among other things, people are unsure they want to support his personal vendetta. They're also worried about the open secret that Casey's wife isn't the most enthusiastic about his candidacy. Voters in northern NS may be tribal, but they're not blind.
Again, factors that models like EPP and 308 fail to account for.
| ||15 09 01
|Think the Conservatives and Armstrong hold on here but just barely. Bill Casey will make it interesting for the Liberals.|
| ||15 08 31
||alpacas and blueberries|
|Actually, the 308 model *does* take local factors into account.|
In fact, they specifically describe Bill Casey's scenario, even though they do not name him.
For example, when Peter MacKay announced he was not running in next door Central Nova, 308 immediately dropped the likelihood of the Tories retaining that seat by about 20 points, if memory serves me.
So...the current probability shown for Cumberland-Colchester already takes into account Bill Casey's popularity. Inasmuch as that probability has shifted to a 53% likelihood of Casey winning, I will revise my earlier projection of a Tory win to 'too close to call'. I am a realist and not above conceding the seat to Casey if the numbers shift further.
| ||15 08 29
|| Marco Ricci|
| 308 has Cumberland-Colchester back to a narrow Liberal projection (50% chance of win) as of August 29, 2015:|
Btw, we can't just rely on the 308 projection because those projections are based on general regional trends. They don't take into account the effect of local factors like star candidates & former MP's. The projection at 308 may underestimate Liberal support because it's based on what the *average* Liberal candidate would get. Bill Casey is not an average candidate, so we may have to add extra percentage points to the Liberal score in the projection.
Also, yesterday's EKOS poll (August 28) showed the Liberals gaining ground and the Conservatives losing support. Maritime numbers for EKOS are 45% LPC, 34% NDP, 14% CPC. Meanwhile, Ipsos & Forum showed the Conservatives in 3rd place Nationally this week, and EKOS shows them only narrowly in 2nd.
It's possible the Conservatives will still be competitive and so they cannot be ruled out, but until we see a riding poll here, all we know for sure is that Conservative numbers are down substantially from 2011.
| ||15 08 25
|Popular former Conservative is running for the Liberals, Liberals polling very well in the Maritimes. This one will go Liberal barring a surge in the NDP vote nationally. If the NDP wins here, they'll have a great night Oct 19.|
| ||15 08 25
|A novice campaign team getting off to a slow start, but I can attest to a hunger in the riding for an NDP presence (i.e. calls and insistent emails for signs & visibility, unanticipated donations and volunteers, etc.). If the Robinson campaign finds its legs, and Mulcair continues to lead, northern NS voters might just vote to type and go with the winning team. Especially those anti-Harper Tories looking for a home. Many who believe this is just a two-way race (including Armstrong and Casey) may be surprised on E-night. Lest we forget, Robinson and the NDP pulled down 22 last time on a shoestring and a prayer. The whisper that's no one's talking about: the little campaign that could.|
| ||15 08 22
||alpacas and blueberries|
|The postings below are the first I have heard about this hospital visit thing. Nobody in this part of the riding has said anything (to me) about it. I think it is a fleeting story that must have occurred on a slow news day.|
I still see mostly blue signs on people's actual property. (I tend to ignore signs on public property/road allowances, as ditches don't get to vote.)
A few previous posters seemed quite excited about the momentary lead that 308 was giving Casey in their projections. As of today, they are predicting a 65% likelihood of Armstrong winning...with Bill Casey *third*. I had thought he would escape the implosion of the Liberal vote, due to his high profile here, but that may not be the case. Still, I think he and Justin will pull out of their tailspin and pass the NDP again, who have a super low profile candidate. I think Casey will pull up and deliver a very respectable second place showing, but it would take either a total collapse of the hardcore conservative vote here - or a consolidation of the centre-left - for Casey to win.
| ||15 08 21
|CBC Nova Scotia reports that Conservative Scott Armstrong provoked a controversy this week by trying to campaign inside a hospital in Truro. The Nova Scotia health authority received a complaint from a Doctor and has now barred Armstrong (and any other politicians) from campaigning inside hospitals during elections.|
Did Conservative Scott Armstrong campaign inside the hospital because he is in a tight fight with Bill Casey? It would be interesting to know what the public reaction is in this riding, or whether this is just a minor issue.
| ||15 08 20
|Scott Armstrong found himself in trouble after campaigning at a local hospital. The Liberals are still polling high in the Atlantic and there has to be a reason why Harper keeps on visiting this riding. 308 is still calling CC for the Liberals with 61% as of August 20. It seems more and more likely that Bill Casey is returning to Ottawa.|
| ||15 08 12
|CBC Nova Scotia reports tonight that Harper is coming to Cumberland-Colchester for a 'secret' rally with CPC supporters.|
If Harper is spending valuable campaign time in a riding like this, one would assume he's not totally sure that the riding is in the bag for the CPC yet.
| ||15 08 12
|308 has the Liberals back in the lead in CC. The polls have been showing a steady decline in Conservative support in the Atlantic and Bill Casey is still quite popular. He will win over support from the small c Conservatives who can no longer stomach the Harper Conservatives while many of the supporters of the old PC party will probably stay at home if they can't stomach voting for the Trudeau Liberals. I expect a close result, but the Liberals have a really good chance of winning here with Bill Casey. Harper may find himself wiped off the map in Nova Scotia this time around.|
| ||15 08 10
||alpacas and blueberries|
|I live in the south part of Cumberland County. People are SO small-c conservative here. I realize this is only one slice of the riding but, for every person I hear/see planning to vote for 'Bill Casey, the man', I hear/see two people saying that they can't follow him over to the policies of the Liberal party. This is gun country...not one of the progressive parts of Atlantic Canada...and the gun registry is still remembered here.|
I see some previous posters pointing out that Bill Casey was a Red Tory and that this will translate into Liberal cross-over votes in October, but he was not as Red when he was the MP as he purports to be now, e.g., on abortion. I would not call this a Red Tory riding, as the Reform/Alliance did well here before the merger. This area is more like adjacent rural New Brunswick.
I do think that Harper's waning popularity, as well as fond memories of Bill Casey, will make it razor-thin, but I think Scott Armstrong will eke out a win. He has been very focused on the riding and, rightly or wrongly, people say he has done a lot for the riding.
| ||15 08 10
|Changing my prediction to TCTC because:|
1. Scott Armstrong actually benefitted from the rural broadband crisis as the provider in this area, Seaside, is upgrading every radio with federal support. For Armstrong's constituents, the program has been adequate, and he's claimed credit for it. Seaside's effective delivery however has enraged those customers who are forced to rely on Eastlink further south. Harper support for rural infrastructure is terrible, but in this riding, it seems to have scored a win thanks to a particularly competent contractor.
2. NDP fortunes in Atlantic Canada are generally rising, Trudeau falling. This makes the NDP less likely to give up or swap votes or volunteer across riding borders or otherwise surrender this riding to the Liberals.
3. The Greens nominated an exceptional candidate, Jason Blanch, who's actually worked directly rehabilitating child soldiers, lives in the strategic crossroads community of Amherst, and is very well connected with activists. When Casey ran independent, the Greens co-nominated him (i.e. nominated no one against him, and endorsed him). Very different situation than 2008 or 2011. https://www.greenparty.ca/en/riding/2013-12003
| ||15 08 03
||mike Craig |
|I'm from the area of Cumberland colchester and was hoping for a Bill Casey uprising but this area is so blue that I find it hard to believe that any other party will get in even when that vote supports Stephen Harper people here vote the way their father voted and I believe that is the unfortunate way of things here.|
| ||15 07 25
|Armstrong just mistakenly sent a release revealing a fill-in-the-blanks method, rookie move but still embarrassing. I feel that Casey will take back the riding. He has a name, experience and a red tory background. It will be close but a liberal pickup.|
| ||15 07 24
|Armstrong and the CPC will work hard to keep this, along with Central Nova. The Tories will at least want to keep 2 seats in NS. CPC hold.|
| ||15 07 17
|Armstrong has remained active and engaged in the Commons and in his riding. Folks forget that one of the reasons former MP Casey had a good rep was because he had Scott Armstrong doing all the tough work and keeping things organized. It may be a little closer this time, but this is the bluest part of Nova Scotia.|
| ||15 07 06
|308.com has this riding at 69% for the Conservatives as of July 6. The methodology does not necessarily predict individual ridings, but gives a good idea of regional trends. |
Obviously too early to make a change of call, but this should be TCTC at this point.
| ||15 06 04
|This is likely to be one of the closest races in the country or at least east coast , its surprising to me site would try and call it before campaign has even started. Its true Bill Casey held this riding for a number of years but he was always elected as a progressive conservative never as a liberal. The liberal party only won this riding once in 1993 . its more of a rural area that has been historically conservative over the years. Scott Armstrong has been mp since 2009 and increased his share of vote in 2011 . its no doubt liberals will do better with Casey as a candidate but ndp are still active in the riding . and tories did very well here in 2011 even if they don't do that well they still are competitive here. |
| ||15 05 31
||Follow The Numbers|
|308 has things neck and neck between the Liberals and Conservatives in this riding, so it's been no surprise that Harper has been showing up in Nova Scotia these past few weeks. He knows things are looking bad for the Conservative brand here. Bill Casey is incredibly popular and well liked, so I think it was a very smart move for him to run here. It will be close, but I think Bill Casey and the Liberals will be able to pull it off.|
| ||15 05 30
|Repeating my Liberal call but for a new reason: Peter MacKay's departure has sent a clear signal to old PCs to sit on their hands and let Harper lose, if they ever want to see a viable federal or provincial conservative party that is not the Liberals in power again. Harper is their main problem, and any hangover Harper era MPs in Nova Scotia simply remind NS to never vote PC or Conservative again. Bill Casey also is a test case for whether old PCs feel welcome in the Trudeau Liberals, something not really tested since Brisson.|
| ||15 05 30
|With Peter MacKay gone, I now think there is little chance of a Conservative hold next door. The old PCs, as I explained in my analysis of what MacKay's departure means, will take this as a signal to sit on their hands for Harper.|
Bill Casey's fate will determine whether old PCs are as welcome in the Liberals now as they were when Scott Brisson joined. If so, expect the Conservative Party of Canada in Nova Scotia to become a rump run by 20-something Ayn Rand chicken hawks, in which old PCs play basically no role. And which never elects an MP again.
Provincially, no doubt people in Cumberland-Colchester still think the PC party can be viable, but they may need to remove the Harper regime before Nova Scotians will trust any 'Progressive Conservative' leader ever again. Thus I cannot see any rational argument for anyone who wants to see the NS PCs come back from the dead (third place in popular vote) not to vote Casey.
| ||15 05 24
||Canadian Election Atlas|
|Bill Casey was able to win this seat as an independent, so it's obvious he has a huge degree of popularity here. Sure, the riding is naturally Tory, but with Liberals polling very well in Nova Scotia, he should have no problem winning this seat. |
| ||15 05 17
|There is now confirmation that this seat is in play and that the Conservatives may be worried because of Bill Casey's return. The Prime Minister himself made a major stop here this week. The Globe & Mail reports:|
'On Friday, Mr. Harper was in Truro, N.S., trying to protect Conservative MP Scott Armstrong from Bill Casey, a onetime Tory MP who later ran and won as an independent, retired from Parliament and is seeking to return as a Liberal.'
| ||15 05 15
|I would be surprised if the Liberals don't take this. Bill is a pretty popular man, not to mention strategic voting will no doubt pull more votes from the NDP and Greens in an effort to keep Harper out. |
| ||15 05 03
|Bill Casey is very popular and the people in the riding has not forgotten him sticking up to them during that budget in 2007. Plus he captured nearly 70% of the vote as an independent candidate. So I say this is a Liberal gain right here.|
| ||15 04 12
|With Bill Casey running for the Liberals this could make this an interesting race, couple this with if the N.D.P. numbers increase a fair amount and this could be a very interesting race come E-day. For now though it is still a Conservative win.|
| ||15 04 13
|If Bill Casey was able to win nearly 70% of the vote as an Independent, it's possible he has a chance to win as a Liberal, especially since the Liberals are polling #1 in Nova Scotia.|
If the Liberals had bad numbers in Nova Scotia, it probably wouldn't be likely, but presumably Casey thinks he has a shot at this, otherwise he wouldn't be putting in the effort. Casey may even have done some internal polling that showed him he could win.
| ||15 04 07
|Cannot see the Conservatives losing 10,000 votes from the last election. This only happens in Quebec.|
| ||15 04 07
|I cannot see this riding leaving Conservative hands. Even with a massive collapse in Conservative support, it is still the strongest Conservative riding in the province, except Central Nova specifically because of the MacKay family. Bill had his time in the spotlight and was even re-elected as an independent, however I cannot see him winning this time around, especially under the Liberal banner.|
| ||15 03 30
|Based on strong numbers in Nova Scotia and Casey's candidacy the Liberals should win solidly.|
| ||15 03 28
|On paper, this is probably the most conservative riding in Nova Scotia, but Bill Casey is quite popular here and now running as a Liberal as well as Harper is extremely unpopular in Atlantic Canada. While I am not quite ready to call it for the Liberals, I would give them a strong edge, although I think the Tories will likely have a strong second place showing. Also with Bill Casey being in his 70s, I wouldn't be surprised if this flips back to the Tories once he retires and likewise once Harper is gone as leader as even many traditional Tories in Atlantic Canada cannot stand Harper.|
| ||15 03 24
|Accepting the correction that Casey won as an independent - then resigned.|
It's definitely true that it was an all-party anti-Harper coalition that kept him in, though, and he didn't expect that to hold in 2011. Even the Green Party of Canada declared its support for his candidacy and announced that they would not run a candidate against him in the 2008 election. On October 14, 2008, Casey was re-elected as an independent by winning 69% of the popular vote. His nearest opponent was Karen Olsen of the New Democrats with just 12% of the vote. - from Wikipedia article on Casey
Casey's old Con riding association backed him completely. In October 2007, the Conservative Party riding association in Cumberland?Colchester?Musquodoboit Valley renominated Casey as its candidate for the 2008 election. The party's head office refused to accept Casey's nomination, and suspended the association's board. In other words Harper tried to derail the locals. They had recovered by 2011 with new Harperites in charge.
Doesn't change my call, of course. A humiliating defeat for the Cons.
Scott Armstrong has made no federal profile except in the negative. He has been at the heart of the degraded Committee procedure under Harper: member on the Legislative Committee on Bill C-11, the Standing Committee on Government Operations and Estimates and its Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure, the Standing Committee on Canadian Heritage and its Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedures, the Standing Committee on Procedure and House Affairs and its Subcommittee on Private Members' Business, the Standing Committee on Justice and Human Rights, the Standing Committee on Human Resources, Skills and Social Development and Status of Persons with Disabilities, and its Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure. And, worst, Member of Panel of Chairs from September 28, 2011 to September 13, 2013, implicating him in the rather total collapse of House Committees.
Armstrong was appointed Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Employment and Social Development on September 19, 2013. It's hard to find a function of government that Harper has not damaged that does not have Armstrong's fingers on it.
| ||15 03 22
|Uh, Craig, when Bill Casey ran as an independent in 2008, he not only didn't lose, he won in a grand-coalition landslide (69%; the nearest competition was the NDP at 12%) But re CC's Tory-voting tradition: while I'd give Scott Armstrong the advantage under most any other circumstance, the Bill Casey thing plus the Grits' thus-far astronomic Maritime polling is really throwing focus upon how readily, in a late-Harper era, 'Justin Liberalism' can serve as a catchbasin for *all* that is traditionally red *and* blue in the Maritimes (even that which remains blue provincially). Or at least, it makes more organic sense now than it did that one moment Casey actually *did* lose federally to the Grits (the 1993 Kim Campbell PC implosion)|
| ||15 03 21
|I like Bill Casey...I really do. Fine man that stood up for his convictions and represented Nova Scotia with honour. And as soon as he retired, Cumberland-Colchester promptly forgot all about it and sided with Harper again.|
I know many people in Amherst and Springhill, and they will tell you that there's no chance of Scott Armstrong losing this seat. Not only is he a popular incumbent that is constantly doing things for the riding, but Cumberland-Colchester has Tory voting record that goes back decades.
I like Bill Casey, but I just don't see anybody winning this seat but a Conservative.
| ||15 03 18
|Calling this for Bill Casey. People here deeply respect how he stood up to Harper over the Atlantic Accord, and Harper is so unpopular in Atlantic Canada, that former PCs running for the Liberals are quite hard to beat.|
That said, Casey lost as an Independent, it's the Liberal organization behind him that will make the difference here.
NDP and Green votes will get behind him as a consensus candidate with or without reciprocal vote swaps/pairing.