Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-22 18:42:49

Constituency Profile


Chiasson, John Douglas

Dutt, Monika

Eyking, Mark

Hiscock, Wayne James

MacKinnon, Adrianna

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (207/207 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Mark Eyking


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15 09 13 Marco Ricci
Yes, it's true that there is sometimes a difference between who political parties consider a 'star' candidate versus what the general public thinks.
Although parties may run someone who is a 'star' in their field (eg. medicine, science, law, etc.), that person isn't necessarily someone who is being discussed around the dinner table by people outside of that individual's professional community.
So I agree that while Monika Dutt sounds like a respected doctor in her field, she probably doesn't have enough name recognition at this point to beat an incumbent Liberal MP in a year in which Liberal support is up in the Maritimes.
15 09 05 Caper15
Well now that we know who the NDP 'star' candidate is, I still think Eyking is taking the seat by a considerable amount of votes. I was surprised at the label 'star' candidate because I live in this riding, and the first I ever heard of her was when I read she was seeking the nomination in the Cape Breton Post last week. That being said, she does seem like a really good candidate. She has lots of potential and is young, so she could use this campaign to make a name for herself and run again down the road. I seem to recall a young Tory candidate who ran in this riding back in 1997 when he was still under 30 and not well known but took the experience from that campaign and ended up with a decent political career. Last time out, the NDP didn't really have much of a campaign here, as it was really Eyking Vs. Clarke, but with an unknown Tory candidate, and the NDP leading polls, I have to wonder if it's possible that she can make this a race? I'll still give this to Eyking, but personally I have no clue who I will support. Last time I voted for Clarke, before that Eyking, even voted NDP in 2000. I suspect there will be many voters in the same position.
15 09 04 Eastcoast Musician
Monika Dutt has been officially nominated and is quite a star candidate, being very respected in healthcare. Liberals better watch this riding a lot more closer as a heavyweight has entered the bout!
15 09 01 Tony
The Liberals didn't lose this last time vs. Cecil Clarke no way they lose it now with a much weaker CPC opponent.
15 09 01 RJC
The 'star' candidate for the NDP is Monika Dutt, a local family doctor, medical officer of health for the Cape Breton District Health Authority and chair of Canadian Doctors for Medicare.
She's probably a solid candidate but is off to a late start, especially against a strong, entrenched incumbent like Mark Eyking. I don't see much evidence that Eyking will lose.
15 08 14 Caper15
Looks like the Conservatives have continued the trend of several other Nova Scotia ridings in running a 25 year-old party staffer from Ottawa in this riding. I guess they couldn't find one from here. As for this STAR CANDIDATE for the NDP, the party say they can't release the name until after a certain date. If Eyking is really in a close battle with a mystery candidate, that's not a good sign for him, but I highly doubt he's in any real trouble of retaining the seat with or without the yet-to-be revealed star candidate to end all star candidates.
By the way, I'm not as stupid as I sound in an earlier post in this riding attributed to me stating the Eyking would not retain this riding because he wasn't running here. I very well know that he is running, I live in the riding and he is my pick to win, that post in this riding was actually one that I posted in Rodger Cuzners riding after someone mentioned Eyking winning that seat. My post was pointing out that Eyking wasn't running in that riding but for some reason it was posted here.
15 08 11 Marco Ricci
It's a bit surprising that it's mid-August and neither the NDP nor the Conservatives have a candidate in Sydney-Victoria yet. According to Pundit's Guide, neither party appears to have even set a nomination date or got anyone in the running:
Although the Conservatives came close in 2011, perhaps the lower CPC numbers in the Maritimes this year have them focusing elsewhere instead. It doesn't seem to be a priority for the NDP, either. I guess Liberal MP Mark Eyking is feeling pretty secure for now!
15 08 10 Madcaper
Just recieved an article from the Hill Times which talks about close 2 way races between the N.D.P and Liberals.In the article Sydney Victoria is seen as a close race and firms up my feelings in my earlier post of one to watch on E-night and TCTC.
15 08 10 Madcaper
In the 4 months since my last post on this riding there has been a definite change in the feel to this riding.In a recent poll in the Cape Breton Post the New Democrats were shown to have a slight but seemingly increasing lead on the Liberals and Bill C-51 has definitely had a negitive impact on the Liberal spport levels.There is rumor rampant that the New Democrats have a STAR CANDIDATE lined up to run and the Conservative vote is collasping in this riding.The rumor of a star candidate about to be announced has definitely helped the New Democrats and has made this an interesting race to watch on E-night.This has to move to the TCTC category for now.
15 07 25 A.S.
Isn't this the 'Mother Canada' riding? Not sure what that means for Con prospects absent Cec Clarke as candidate--though it does seem a rather weaselly sucker's-game way to go about it--and as for the NDP: it's hereabouts where they *lost* their provincial-byelection seats. Right now I'll call it Liberal-by-elimination, more than the landslide it might have seemed a few months ago.
15 07 17 L.O.
Absent a return of a Tory candidate like Cecil Clarke, the Liberals will hold this one. Expect an uptick in NDP votes in Sydney with the union folks. But not enough to take Eyking.
15 05 05 Caper15
I highly doubt Eyking will be retaining this seat, since he's not even a candidate in this riding. Also, the Tories do have a candidate nominated, but I think the support for Clarke in Sydney-Victoria and the prospects of a voice in government last time rubbed off in this riding also allowing a the Tories to give a good run at Cuzner. Not this time, Cuzner will win in a landslide.
15 05 05 Caper15
Unlike an earlier submission stated, this one doesn't look close on paper. Last time, the Tories ran the strongest candidate they had in about 40 years, and a lot of the votes were for that candidate not the party he ran for. Throw in personal votes from Liberals, and the promise of a voice in government, and Tory came close to pulling it off, but not this time. Back to just a name on the ballot, so I say Eyking will win hands down, unless the NDP can deliver the rumoured star candidate that keeps being mentioned. Even then, Eyking will probably still win. Last time, my own personal vote went to Clarke, no idea where to stand this time.
15 04 23 Madcaper
While the results of the last election were fairly close the fact that the Conservatives and New Democrats have yet to name their candidates make this seat at this time still a Liberal seat. Should either Party or both come out with a high profile candidate the situation could change here very quickly. Only time will tell but for now it is a Liberal hold.
15 04 12 Madcaper
Based on all the information that I have been able to gather on this riding so far, with the N.D.P. and Conservatives having not picked their respective candidates as of yet it appears that the Liberal incumbent in this riding is in for an easy ride. The one hitch in the riding to this point is the rumblings that Mayor Cecil Clarke of the C.B.R.M. may be ready to make another run at Mr. Eyking. People will remember that in the last election Mr Clarke finished a very respectable 2nd place. The one drawback for Cecil is this may be seen as political opportunism and this may hurt any chance he would have to unseat Mark. At this point this is still a win for the Libs.
15 03 28 monkey
This is not normally a Tory friendly riding and they only came close last time due to a strong candidate. Considering how high a percentage are frequent users of EI here, any party who dares to touch it will get obliterated much like the Liberals did in 1997, so easy Liberal win. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories fall to third here.
15 03 22 Brian A
If the Liberal Party were chased out of every seat in Canada, their last stand would be on Cape Breton Island. Since the opposite is likely, everything north of the Causeway is staying bright red.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Despite looking close on paper, a Liberal incumbent in Cape Breton with a popular Leader, probably isn't going to lose, regardless of performance.
Conservatives may focus on this one, as it'd be a humiliating loss for the Liberals, but they will have their hands full holding West Nova and Cumberland-Colchester, and I suspect they have already given up on South Shore - St. Margaret's. MacKay will be pinned down and unable to help but will focus on West Nova and Cumberland-Colchester when he has time outside his riding.

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