Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

West Nova

Prediction Changed
2015-07-15 15:29:43

Constituency Profile


Foster, Greg

Fraser, Colin

LeBlanc, Arnold

Walton, Clark

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   West Nova
   (221/221 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Greg Kerr


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15 10 09 Poltard
Conservative has very little presence, campaign or sign wise in the town of Yarmouth, which constitutes the major population centre in the riding.
I am presently living in an Acadian enclave (Argyle or Par-en-Bas) and the only signs I see are for the Liberals or NDPers, even though both candidates are English, and the Tory has an Acadian name.
I know signs aren't everything, but as a seasoned election campaigner for both Tories and NDPers in Ontario in past elections, they indicate that canvassers have been in the area, have been getting out the word, and have been collecting names of supporters to check off against the voters lists on election day. In a low population riding where a thousand or so swing votes will decide things, I get a strong feel that Libs will take this one, with over 50% of cast ballots.
Weird being in such a large riding though, I need to register to vote and I can't find out anywhere where the advance polls are, and the returning office is an hour and a half away.
15 10 02 Marco Ricci
Sou West Nova Scotian, according to the latest polling, the Liberal lead has grown in the Maritimes over the course of the campaign, and it is the NDP numbers that have dropped off. (In fact, today's Nanos shows the NDP falling behind CPC in the Atlantic region).
Perhaps this will help CPC in some of their other seats as you suggest, but it probably won't be enough to help them keep West Nova.
Nanos - Atlantic
LPC - 53.7
CPC - 22.2
NDP - 19.4
15 10 01 Sou West Nova Scotian
Still not ready to make a call on this one. While 308 has the riding as going overwhelmingly liberal, I would be surprised if the result was a massive blowout. It hasn't happened since '93 and I can't see it happening this time, especially with the recent comments made by Trudeau regarding not revoking the citizenship of terrorists. Those comments might play well in urban ridings like Halifax but in rural southwestern Nova Scotia they can only hurt him. With a significant Acadian population and an Acadian candidate running for the Conservatives, it will be interesting to see where that demographic votes. We will have to wait and see where the momentum swings in the next couple weeks.
15 09 16 R.O.
This riding hasn't got a lot of attention so far this election and no party leaders have been to this riding yet. Its an open race with no incumbent and all new candidates . Arnold Leblanc the new cpc candidate was Greg Kerr's assistant so he might be more familiar with riding . but lacks the profile former mp had in riding and Ottawa. With liberals polling well out east a vacant riding like this presents an opportunity to make gains. But have a tough time trying to figure out if new candidate Colin Fraser is going to do as well here as former mp Robert Thibault did . so I've yet to make a solid prediction.
15 09 13 A.S.
What's interesting about West Nova is that it's got the most New Brunswickian voting demo in Nova Scotia--a substantial French-speaking community, and a substantial English-speaking community more than willing to vote against the grain of said French-speaking community, i.e. a perfect dog-whistle setup for Lynton Crosby to try making a little electoral hay out of. Except that it's the periphery of Novs Scotia; why bother here. (But just advance warning that the Con vote may be more resilient than some are counting on. Not *winningly* resilient, necessarily; but...resilient.)
15 08 10 Craig Hubley
Nothing has changed, or will change here. This remains a Liberal pickup.
The factors I listed for SSSM that swing it NDP don't affect this riding as much, except for the rural broadband crisis. The professionals in this riding are not necessarily living in the cut-off coastal enclaves of the Atlantic coast, though, so are less affected and a bit less influential, more inclined to Liberal than NDP as a general rule. But due to the crisis, West Nova will certainly agree that Conservative support for rural connectivity has been inadequate. Thus, here where the Cons are a real threat, they'll vote Liberal not NDP despite the provincial NDP's stronger stance against rural data caps. There will be a lot of phone calls across the West Nova - SSSM riding boundary that amount to informal vote swapping.
This is happening at family picnics right now. I've seen it first hand. There's a general feeling in Southwest Nova that Conservatives are done, and that having one Liberal and one NDP MP is safer than two of either.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
This should not be TCTC. With MacKay and Kerr gone and the Liberals polling at over 50% in this riding, this is one they'll easily win without putting in much effort. Their numbers would really have to tank for them to lose here and I don't see that happening this time around. Easy Liberal pickup.
15 07 26 R.O.
Think this riding is still too close to call , well the conservatives have lost mp Greg Kerr as he is retiring the liberals also lost former mp Robert Thibault as a candidate , he had been mp for a few years and had tried to win the seat back and might of kept liberal vote higher here in 2011 than if they had another candidate. So both major parties have new candidates that aren't as high profile in the riding as previous ones. The riding has flipped back and forth between liberals and conservatives for a number of years and can be rather difficult to get a feel for who is stronger here .
15 05 30 Craig Hubley
Calling this Liberal for sure now that MacKay is gone. NDP, Liberals and Greens all smell blood in the water now and will be focusing like mad on the remaining Conservative seats in Nova Scotia. Liberals are just too far ahead to fail here, even if Trudeau collapses in the debates that may never happen.
15 04 14 Stevo
Although I believe Trudeau's star will fade significantly leading up to the election, the polls in Atlantic Canada (small sample size notwithstanding) are unambiguous: Easterners are in love with the guy, for whatever reason. A seat like West Nova, which was always pretty marginal for the Conservatives and where the Liberals performed very well in 2011, will easily flip. Liberal pick-up.
15 04 16 Madcaper
I have to disagree with the previous posters who say that the Premier is still riding a wave of popularity in his back yard. Don't forget the laying off of the Provincial Park workers in this area and also some people are not pleased at how the Government money given to the new Ferry operating out of Yarmouth was handled. Money that was supposed to last 7 years only lasting a few months has raised a few eyebrows. Also don't forget Mr. Trudeau slipping in the polls so this may not be as easy a pick up as one might think. Still TCTC
15 03 28 monkey
Normally a bellwether that swings back and forth between the two parties, but considering how big a lead the Liberals have in Atlantic Canada, they should easily take this. If the lead narrows to single digits I will move this to too close to call, but until then this looks prime for a Liberal pick up.
15 03 24 westnovascotian
This riding is too close to call at this point. Incumbent Conservative Greg Kerr is not running and they have not yet nominated a candidate. Colin Fraser (Liberal) is from Yarmouth on the western end of the riding and will have to work hard to win over voters in the valley. The NDP should have barely any influence on the result in this riding.
15 03 22 Brian A
The Premier is from this riding - and a popular Premier he is - so the local party's momentum is definitely on Trudeau's side here. Then again, the Liberals are polling sky-high in Nova Scotia anyway. Even if Kerr was running again, this riding would flip Liberal.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
I'd be calling this Liberal due to loss of incumbent Greg Kerr, popularity of the provincial Liberal government here (Stephen MacNeil is from 'the Valley'), strong concern to keep the Portland-Yarmouth Ferry in operation (possibly a bit more likely with co-operating federal and provincial representation).
However Colin Fraser is a low-profile lawyer who doesn't seem to have any unique accomplishment, so a star Conservative can still pull this out of the hat.
NDP and Green have no chance here, this is a prime vote swapping riding.

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