Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-07-15 15:29:51

Constituency Profile


Breau, Dominique

Cormier, Serge

Girouard-Riordon, Riba

Godin, Jason

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (239/246 polls, 98.05% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Yvon Godin

   (7/246 polls, 1.95% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Tilly O'Neill Gordon


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15 10 18 Marco Ricci
Indications are being reported by CBC New Brunswick today that the NDP are now worried about Acadie-Bathurst being a closer riding than expected.
As reporters pointed out, the NDP have taken out full page ads featuring retiring NDP Yvon Godin and almost seem to be trying to give the impression that the Godin on the ballot this year is the same Godin.
Probably too soon to write the NDP off here, but it looks like the Liberals are closing in here.
15 10 16 Cartesian
This riding was a Liberal stronghold prior to Yvon Godin taking it in 1997 n the context of Atlantic Canada anger over EI changes. Mr. Godin entrenched himself in the riding winning ever greater majorities, however this support should be interpreted mainly as support for the man and not the party. Now that he retired, this is very much an open seat. If the NDP was on the lookup they might have a chance of retaining it but, this not being the case and the new NDP candidate being 22 years old, I think the Liberals will take it.
15 10 13 JC
Honestly think this riding can't be ruled out for the Liberals, this was a riding with a popular incumbent and the liberals are ruling the polls in Atlantic Canada, they may very well win this.
15 09 15 F Master Flex
I was initially skeptical about the early call for the NDP to win Acadie-Bathurst, though today's CRA poll of federal voting intentions in each Atlantic province (a much larger and more geographically specific sample than standard national polls offer) makes me think this is a safe NDP call. The poll put the NDP at 35% in New Brunswick, up 5% from 2011. This figure would suggest that even if the NDP vote share will be down from their 2011 in Acadie-Bathurst (to be expected given the retirement of Yvon Godin), NDP support in the province is still high enough for the NDP to secure a victorious 45%-50% in the riding.
15 09 13 A.S.
For years before the Orange Crush, Yvon Godin made this practically Canada's lone bastion of electable Franco-NDP support--and now it wouldn't be out of the question for it to go Franco-Liberal against the Mulcair grain...maybe? Even if conventional wisdom has it passing on from Godin to Godin and the 'Bloc Acadien' status quo standing pat, I won't offer a prediction just for contrarian allowance's sake...
15 09 11 R.O.
Even with Yvon Godin retiring as mp for the riding its likely the ndp hold this riding , although it could be much closer than past elections. It had been liberal before he first won the riding but seems to be an area where ndp has support. Liberals also have a new candidate Serge Cormier . the tory candidate from 2011 Louis Robichaud is back for another run but one of the few New Brunswick ridings where cpc hasn't done well.
15 09 09 Atlantic Election Guy
There is real hope among Liberals that they can reclaim this riding after Yvon Godin's tenure. I'm not sure if the NDP will lose, but the Liberals are targeting this as a potential pick up and working hard to have it turn Red. The Conservatives are simply there for window dressing on election night.
15 08 16 Sykes
Obviously, this riding would be even easier to predict if Yvon Godin was running again. But with the surge in popularity of the NDP, not to mention the MASSIVE margin of victory in this riding in 2011, it's hard to imagine this riding changing hands in October.
15 08 11 phil03
Changed my prediction here, the factors noted in my previous post still apply but the NDP recent growth in the Maritimes should be enough to put them over the top. LEAN NDP
15 07 24 Mad Caper
With the surge in support for the New Democrats and the fact that Yvon Godin has put his full support behind his name sake I think it is safe to call this as a fairly easy hold for the New Democrats, especially when you consider the free fall in Liberal support across the Country and in the Atlantic Canada i the last 2 months. N.D.P. hold.
15 07 08 Stevo
Acadie-Bathurst feels like one of those ridings where everyone (and I mean EVERY pundit) is convinced that it was only the popularity of the departing MP that kept the seat for the victorious party and that the seat will automatically and instantaneously revert back to its voting patterns that existed prior to the popular departing MP, only that we discover on election day that the people of the riding are in fact quite satisfied and wish to continue with their current path and party even with a new, little-known candidate. I know there are quite a few examples of this in the past but none spring to mind at the moment (A.S. might remember some). I believe the NDP will hold this seat quite easily. As the party leading nationally, and Mulcair likely to campaign well, residents of this riding will know that they are NB's chance to have a seat at the table in a possible NDP-led minority government.
15 06 08 RJC
I am having a hard time with this one. Deep down, I think it is a Liberal riding that Yvon Godin won over by being a great and high-profile MP. The new NDP candidate, despite sharing his last name, simply will not have the same amount of goodwill and will have to work harder. He is also very young and the town he serves as mayor is very small, so he probably isn't that well-known within the riding. That being said, if the Liberals perform poorly on a national basis and if Yvon puts all of his weight behind Jason, he'll win.
It is kind of hard to imagine a riding that gave the NDP 70% of the vote last time switching to the Liberals, but we'll see just how wedded that vote is to the party as opposed to the candidate himself.
15 05 16 Gillian
Easy NDP hold. The NDP have a great candidate who both young and the Mayor of a local town (and who also has the same last name as current NDP MP Yvon Godin). Yvon got almost 70% of the vote in 2011. That is too massive a gap for any of the other parties to overcome even with Yvon not running.
15 03 28 monkey
This was more of a Yvon Godin riding than NDP riding so if he stayed on, he probably would have held this, but since he is not running again, I suspect it will return to the Liberals although this will probably be the NDP's best showing in New Brunswick.
15 03 26 Marco Ricci
Yes, Jason Godin is the Mayor of Maisonnette, but that is a small town, so he may not be well-known in the rest of the riding. It's not correct that the Liberals aren't putting up much of a profile. Articles in the French press say there are several people running for the Liberal nomination since Yvon Godin's retirement has opened this seat up. One is Aldéoda Losier, the Mayor of Tracadie. Another is Serge Cormier, an assistant to former Deputy Minister Hédard Albert. So we must wait to see how matters develop for both the NDP & the Liberals.
15 03 23 phil03
At first view this one should be an easy NDP hold. However, this riding is way more a Godin riding then a NDP one. Before he was there the liberal were holding Acadie-Bathurst since the 50's. The NDP are not beaten yet, they have a good candidate who would have Godin full support but, if they dont select a complete disaster as their candidate, the grits should have this one. LIKELY PLC
15 03 22 Brian A
As of right now, it appears Jason Godin (no relation) is going to be acclaimed the NDP candidate in A-B, He's a young man who also happens to the Mayor of Maisonnette - the youngest Mayor of a municipality of Canada. If anybody is going to beat the NDP here, it'll be the Liberals and they haven't put up much of a profile which tells me they feel like they have other fish to fry. Barring some kind of star candidate run by Trudeau here, I see this seat staying NDP.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Yvon Godin is retiring. However that doesn't mean he won't campaign for the NDP, who desperately need to retain this riding after failing to get a single provincial seat (unlike other parties the NDP has a unified federal provincial membership) in 2014. They will be fighting very hard to keep it, and it just isn't an attractive enough prospect for anyone else to fight quite so hard. Nomination races haven't been rushed and I suspect it's a question of who takes the hit for the party in a near-certain NDP hold.

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