Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Fundy Royal

Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:24:17

Constituency Profile


Amos, David Raymond

Coburn, Stephanie

Lockhart, Alaina

McKenzie, Jennifer

Moore, Rob

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 60.02%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Fundy Royal
   (164/185 polls, 92.48% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Rob Moore

   (11/185 polls, 3.78% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Dominic LeBlanc

   Saint John
   (6/185 polls, 3.35% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Rodney Weston

   New Brunswick Southwest
   (4/185 polls, 0.39%of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

John Williamson


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15 10 18 JRW
Conservative hold. Race for second could be interesting.
15 10 11 M
Trudeau was in this riding campaigning this past week and drew huge crowds. With the Liberals polling over 50% in Atlantic Canada, only a couple of NDP members that may survive. Tories are facing a complete shutout in Atlantic Canada.
15 10 07 Craig Hubley
This riding is the NDP's only hope for a new seat in New Brunswick. They are going to hit it with everything they've got in the last ten days of the campaign, and every volunteer in NB and some of NS and PEI will be in this riding making people aware that Jennifer McKenzie is far ahead of Lockhart despite her cute Trudeau visit. That makes this NDP vs. Con too close to call. The temptation of knocking out Rob Moore will be too much even for stalwart Liberals who know the NDP has the better candidate here.
And the better campaign, if you look at what each candidate is doing and what they're talking about. Lockhart is running a classic also-ran for-the-troops campaign but it's not going to take the seat from Moore.
I cannot call it NDP due to the party's bad Atlantic numbers and Trudeau's spoiler visit, but since Liberals pull votes from Cons more than from NDP, it's quite likely that even that visit could end up helping Ms. McKenzie.
This one has been called prematurely. Conservatives in this region, as Tony put it, are indeed 'toast', and Rob Moore's fall will demonstrate it.
15 10 07 Atlantic Election Guy
To start, I don't appreciate the previous post at all. Atlantic Canadian voters are not stupid for not specifically voting out Harper and voting their personal preference. It's an election, people have the right to choose.
However, something might be up in the riding. Trudeau made a stop to Sussex and had an encouraging rally. Does anyone know if the change momentum is building here? It would be one hell of an upset if Lockhart took this riding.
15 10 01 Craig Hubley
Threehundredeight.com shows, as of October 1, Green support at a whopping 10.8%. That's more than any other NB riding other than Fredericton and NB Southwest. More than enough to hand this to the NDP even if no Liberal shifts their vote from what all sources seem to say is 3rd place candidate.
Next door in Fredericton, Mary-Lou Babineau is the strongest 'star' candidate the Greens have ever run in the Maritimes next to May herself in 2008. Her campaign will be getting donations, volunteers, lip service, call-ins, family pressure, all from other Maritime ridings. The word is out: Mary Lou gets it this time, and NB Southwest and Fundy Royal will get that attention next time. But they won't get that attention if they just shift their vote NDP without recording that fact by publicly vote swapping: No one would know what the real support for the Greens was in those ridings if they just shifted silently NDP without asking for a vote for Mary Lou. This time around, the Greens know this, and are encouraging public swaps and reciprocity requests.
Just as a statistical fact, formal vote swaps just between NB Southwest and Fundy Royal Green voters, and Fredericton NDP voters, would certainly elect Andrew Graham and Jennifer McKenzie, with no one having to agree to vote for a Liberal. Add the Greens in Saint John -- Rothesay and Tobique Mactaquac to the Liberal totals and Wayne Long, T. J. Harvey also go to the House. Three of those four ridings participating probably elects Mary Lou Babineau in Fredericton for the Greens.
So voters in western NB including Fredericton have a pretty clear choice: Start to call friends, family and colleagues across riding boundaries and get Andrew Graham, Jennifer McKenzie, Wayne Long, T. J. Harvey and Mary Lou Babineau into the House to represent them... or let the party leaders and partisan paranoids rule their vote and end up with Richard Bragdon, Rob Moore, John Williamson, Rodney Weston and Keith Ashfield. Again.
All while knowing that if Harper gets *ZERO SEATS IN THE MARITIMES*, as is very possible this time, he could not possibly form a viable government even with the most seats.
So my question is, are the progressive voters of New Brunswick so stupid and partisan that they will not realize they can swing this whole thing, and put one of the strongest set of MPs that ever served into the House to stand for them? A set of MPs that, by the way, could all floor cross to any of the three parties any day, should one of them seriously betray NB.
I'm not calling this one, I'm pointing out that we have absolutely no idea how hard that Green vote will swing. A hard swing changes this riding, if the polls stay steady. A more even split with everyone sticking to their first choice party elects the Conservatives. It's not something that will show up in riding level polls, more like the many thousands of votes that shifted for Elizabeth May in 2011, so I think this one remains a TCTC to election day.
15 09 18 s
A lot of people keep thinking the Conservatives are going to take this one like they have in every election sense 1917, except 1993. I wouldn't be so quick to judge. 308.com has this riding in a deadlock between the Conservatives and NDP. Time will tell!
15 09 13 A.S.
Whatever the projection sites say, I'm still having deep problems picturing Fundy Royal switching allegiances--let alone to the NDP. In fact, let us remember that the NDP's notional numbers and 'momentum' may be inflated by their running the confusingly-named Rob Moir in 2006-8; whatever his credibility as a candidate (as affirmed by his more-than-decent 2nd-place St. John's run in 2011), don't think Moir didn't benefit here from mistaken identity, either. On those grounds, I see the greater likelihood being Lib/NDP parity--either party by itself being presently too weakly founded to prevail hereabouts--and Moore-not-Moir prevailing in the resulting split. So, 'blue poison' once again--and look at it this way, the Fundy Royals will vote blue even if a competent-enough 'Mike Chong moderate' were federal leader.
15 09 01 Tony
Safe Conservative seat, they lose this then they're toast.
15 08 22 A. Voter
As of August 22, 308 gives the Conservatives an almost sixty percent chance of winning this riding.
15 08 20 MUBS
It is not possible to know the 'percentage' of 308's percentage that is influenced by regional polling but if this riding does not stay cons then they are truly in trouble nationally.
15 08 20 Monkey Cheese
308 is now showing this as a 53% NDP gain, as of August 20. Who would have thought? There does appear to be a downward trend for the Tories in the Atlantic. It's enough for one of their last remaining strongholds in the region to be in play. However, Rob Moore does have the incumbent advantage, but the biggest question is how popular is he in his own riding? Are enough people angry at the Conservatives to vote him out? Conservative advantage, but this probably should be moved to TCTC for now.
15 08 18 Craig Hubley
308 now has this as a 56% likely NDP pickup. Though the NDP is supposedly just one point ahead two months before the election, the other 1/4 of the vote that intends to hopelessly vote Liberal or Green will be rethinking that. And it only takes a tiny portion of those votes to defeat Rob Moore.
15 08 16 R.O.
Rob Moore has held this riding since 2004 and its one of the more tory friendly ridings in New Brunswick. The ndp vote has gradually grown in the riding and passed liberals for second. Rob Moore has the advantage of being the incumbent and better known in riding than other main candidates who haven't run here before.
15 08 12 Craig Hubley
308 has this as a marginal 56% Conservative hold, based on regional polls of course and not necessarily taking into account the incumbent's staying power. However Rob Moore is so closely identified with the hard right wing of the Conservatives that anyone looking seriously at the future of that party and wanting it to continue to exist at all should consider not voting at all, or shifting Liberal to start influencing the 'other right wing party' that will probably soon be the only one capable of governing.
I usually bow to local wisdom but not to partisan predictions necessarily. The fact is that in this election the public can choose from two right-wing parties favouring C-51 and denying climate change, a less denialist party that is still very pro-business and even pro-Irving-oil, and the 308 numbers show that the NDP, not Liberals, are the challenger. So all that means that the formerly rigid right wing for Con vote is split.
15 08 05 Docere
What Craig Hubley does not seem to get in his attempt to paint all ridings in the Maritimes with one brush (i.e. Peter MacKay is a former PC and a Maritimer, since he's leaving Harper's Conservatives in trouble in Fundy Royal, Tobique-Mactaquac etc.) is that rural New Brunswick is a lot more right-wing than anything in neighboring Nova Scotia. Fundy Royal will remain Conservative. It only went Liberal once in its history - in 1993. In 2011, they only got 10% of the vote in this riding! They are not in a position to win a seat like this. I expect the Conservatives to be wiped out in Nova Scotia, but they should have 3 or 4 seats in New Brunswick. EP's predictions are on the mark here.
15 05 30 Craig Hubley
Changing my prediction after the departure of Peter MacKay. While this will be one of the *LEAST* affected districts directly, and Nova Scotia politics has basically no impact on it, the invigorated Liberal focus on Maritime seats will certainly be felt here. And the departure of MacKay is being understood and interpreted by most ordinary people as meaning that the old PC Party no longer exists, no longer has any role or status in the Conservative Party, and that the thing to do if you ever want to moderate the Cons, is sit on your hands for Harper in 2015. Or join the Liberals, as Bill Casey has done.
So while I would not count Moore out, he is sure in the race of his life now.
The biggest question is whether the provincial PCs of New Brunswick are like the provincial PCs in Nova Scotia, and will realize that Harper is their barrier to power, and that it becomes permanent if Harper wins again. The last NB provincial election saw a huge rise in the NDP and Green vote and another such rise of equivalent scale pretty much forces the PCs and Liberals into a merger to hold power for the usual NB elites and cronies.
Moore may end up sacrificed so that NB has no Harper/Alward hangover for the third parties to use against the provincial PCs in the post Harper era.
15 05 15
Rob Moore is a hard right winger, and a mindless drone. But that is not going to matter any to the voters in Fundy Royal. A largely rural riding with rich people who selfishly vote conservative so they can keep more of their money, and country folk who think anyone else is a communist... It pains me to say it, but I think Rob Moore will be here until he retires, and he is only 41!
15 04 14 Dr. Bear
This seat would stay conservative, even if the liberals start polling in majority territory. Both the Liberals and the CPC will be ignoring this riding and focusing resources elsewhere.
15 03 28 monkey
Arguably one of the safest Tory ridings in Atlantic Canada so while I expect the Liberals to do better than they normally do here, the Tories would need a complete meltdown nationally to lose this. Lets remember the Canadian Alliance got 25% here in 2000 so unlike other Atlantic Canada ridings which are almost all old PC types thus could go over to the Liberals, many here are from the Conservative base.
15 03 26 westnovascotian
One of the safest Conservative seats in Atlantic Canada. It would take a monumental Conservative collapse or a major Trudeau surge for this to switch.
15 03 24 phil03
As much that I would like to see Moore go down this is baptist country and they love Harper and the tories. It is not completely impossible to see it fall to the grits: it was in play last year when Trudeau numbers where at their peaks and a combination of the the aftermath of Duffy trials + a very rough budget for the maritimes might do the trick but it is an uphill battle for anyone else then the conservatives even in the best of circumstances.
15 03 22 Brian A
Rural New Brunswick. A region that typically favours the Conservatives + a province where the Conservatives are still doing quite well = Conservative hold.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Another any-poison-as-long-as-its-blue riding held by Rob Moore, who is presently Regional Minister for New Brunswick. and Newfoundland and Labrador (because PEI and Nova Scotia would run him out on a rail quick).
As with Valcourt, NB voters are wary of ditching an incumbent regional minister (who hands out the goodies) or cabinet minister (who can get the goodies handed out in Cabinet). An easy hold, one of the safest Con in NB.
Moore ran for the Canadian Alliance in 2000 meaning he is probably one of Harper's most reliable far right wing ideological allies in the region. He defeated John Herron a refusenik PC who like Scott Brison refused to join the Harper party.
By re-electing Moore and Valcourt, NB would keep its hands in both sides of the Conservative Party of Canada and help to steer its future evolution. And yes voters in this region really do think that way, they know that their refusal to accept the Alliance in 2000 forced the merger in which MacKay and Brison (both from Nova Scotia) were the key players and in which Orchard (a Westerner) was fooled. In a situation no Maritimer would have been fooled.
It's not clear yet whether Nova Scotia or New Brunswick PC parties (the provincial branches) can ever hold power again. If they go two or more elections declining in vote, then many provincial PCs will become Liberal to keep NDP and Green from ganging up using vote swapping and strategic cooperation. That could lead to a BC or Quebec like permanent alliance of federal Liberals and Conservatives in a more right leaning provincial Lib party. NB is less likely to go in this direction than NS, but it's still a possibility. If it happens in NS, that's three provinces, plus Alberta and Saskatchewan where the ruling parties are also Con+Lib coalitions...
In which case a viable far right wing lunatic will be required to steer the Conservatives either federally or provincially into oblivion. In NB, Rob Moore is that guy. Like Pierre 'Poutine' Poilievre, Dean Del Mastro (convicted), Peter Van Loan, and his name-mate James Moore, Rob Moore takes on 'dirty work' portfolios: In February 2006, Moore was appointed Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Canada. Moore's duties as Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Justice include representing the Minister in Parliament and in the Standing Committee on Justice and Human Rights.
Since then the Harper regime has delegated human rights to an expensive empty room, defied child soldier, torture and indigenous rights treaties, and tried to appoint utterly unqualified judges to the Supreme Court. Rob Moore is no small part of that conspiracy. He won't be going down easy.

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