Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Miramichi-Grand Lake

Prediction Changed
2015-10-11 15:43:45

Constituency Profile


Clark, Matthew Ian

Colford, Patrick

Finnigan, Pat

O'Neill-Gordon, Tilly

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 400.12%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (139/174 polls, 82.59% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Tilly O'Neill Gordon

   (21/174 polls, 9.74% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Keith Ashfield

   (10/174 polls, 6.27% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Dominic LeBlanc

   (4/174 polls, 1.40%of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Mike Allen


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15 10 10 Spx
At this point I can't see the Conservatives holding this riding. Other than their stronghold of Fundy Royal they should all turn red.
15 10 10 Sean Curley
I think it's time this one was called for the Liberals. They held this prior to the 2011 implosion, and Liberal support in the Atlantic region is the strongest in the country now (and now that's not just a sad commentary on the state of things elsewhere).
15 10 09 Atlantic Election Guy
I was convinced this was TCTC back when the Libs were well in third nationally. Now that they have had a strong campaign, and the Atlantic Canada Liberal numbers have only gone up, I'm predicting a Liberal gain. Finnigan should win this by 8-10%.
15 10 07 Craig Hubley
This is a very old-fashioned race. Pat Finnigan and Tilly O'Neil Gordon seem to be going to small events, seeking local media coverage only. Pat does not even have a Twitter account! That's probably a better strategy than Tilly whose campaign advisors block anyone that asks her questions, particularly about what she means by 'moving forward' in a riding that has been wracked by confrontations about fracking and soon about Energy East.
Gordon has claimed to have brought '$92,000/year' to the riding for the past 7 years, quite a feat when more than 1/7 of the riding wasn't even hers under current borders. Bragging about pork can backfire, however, as Gerald Keddy discovered, those giant cheques can become boat anchors in a well scrutinized campaign. Particularly if your personal friends got 'em.
I don't think Gordon will lose by a wide margin but there is no reason to keep a backbencher around in a hung parliament. Particularly not if the Liberal has some Cabinet potential, which Finnigan may but Gordon doesn't.
15 10 01 Craig Hubley
NDP is in steady slow decline so the vote split should be less than anyone thought before October. Greens have woken up to their real opportunity to take Fredericton if they can swap their vote in just four seats around it to the NDP (Fundy Royal, NB Southwest) and Liberals (Saint John -- Rothesay, Tobique -- Mactaquac). Whether that trend shifts 1, 2 or 10 Green points in those ridings, it will certainly shift a few votes here in Miramichi -- Grand Lake for the Liberals. Greens want Fredericton *bad* as it follows up David Coon's MLA win in the capital and makes it basically their Maritime stronghold. And they clearly know they couldn't pursue this riding as well or they'd have nominated Rebecca Frazer-Chaisson again, who broke through to second place in a provincial race.
Also threehundredeight.com has had this Liberal for a long time now, over 70% sometimes, and there's a time to just call it and risk being wrong.
15 10 01 F Master Flex
Far too much significance has been attached to Susan Levi-Peters' defection to the Liberals in previous posts. The move garnered zero media attention and Elsipogtog cast only 2% of the votes in the redistributed riding in 2011. This does not mean that the Liberals are incapable of winning Miramichi-Grand Lake, and indeed this remains a very tough riding to call. However, a Liberal victory, unless it is by a razor-thin margin, will not be contingent upon Levi-Peters' move.
This riding is still TCTC and will ultimately be a battle of how well O'Neill-Gordon can use her personal popularity and delivery of federal goodies to counter the weaken Conservative brand in the Atlantic region.
15 09 14 Richard B.
Again, EI is major issue in this riding. Recent visits(two) by the only national leader Justin Trudeau to do so means the Liberals are rolling high here. The Conservative campaign is losing momentum here. Many Conservatives seem to have resigned to losing the seat here. The NDP campaign seems to have been hampered dead by the defection to the Liberals of very popular Susan Levi-Peters. They lost their pump! Pat Finnigan, also known as Mr. Tomato is a very well spoken agriculturist who has re-energized the Liberals. Expect a big Liberal victory here.
15 09 13
Even if the federal Liberal history here's been largely 'Blue Grit' a la Charles Hubbard, I've never seen this seat as Tilly's for keeps, or like a NB version of those onetime SW Ontario rural swing ridings that have become (apparently) perma-Tory--there's too much mitigating Acadianism or legacy McKenna-ism to the point where where we're still dealing more with Dion/Iggy doldrums than a permanent condition. Yeah, Justin might not be the Bluest of Grits; but, still. Well, at least the riding boundaries are more sensible, i.e. no longer the bizarre 'Acadie-Bathurst-embracing' concoction it was before...
15 09 11 R.O.
I wouldn't say too close to call is unreasonable at this point but Tilly Gordon has been mp of this riding since 2008 and being an incumbent out east can be an advantage. And she has had a number of years to increase her profile in the riding. Its true this riding has a lot of liberal history but is a lot of ridings all across Canada that have liberal history but have ndp or conservative mp's at the moment. I also notice the ndp candidate from 2011 Patrick Colford is back for another run. This is a riding the liberals might do better in but still a lot of election left so see how things turn out.
15 09 10 Spx
Of the remaining CPC strongholds, this one should be the first one to flip and should be in the TCTC column for now.
15 09 09 Atlantic Election Guy
This definitely falls into the TCTC category now. With Trudeau campaigning here this week, the continued strength of the Liberals in Atlantic Canada, and the slight drop in the Conservatives nationally, this is not a safe seat.
It was also no accident that Trudeau made his announcement regarding EI reforms before going to this riding. While the actual facts that may be that many people have not been affected by the EI changes, there was a perception of an attack on this area in particular. This should be an interesting riding to watch the rest of the way.
15 09 03 Marco Ricci
Susan Levi-Peters, the NDP candidate in 2011 who ran against Liberal MP Dominic LeBlanc in Beauséjour, announced today that she is now supporting Justin Trudeau's Liberals because she can no longer support Mulcair's NDP. Levi-Peters has also been Deputy Leader of the New Brunswick NDP. She ran provincially in 2011 against Liberal Leader Brian Gallant.
She appeared with Liberal MP Dominic LeBlanc and Liberal candidate for Miramachi, Pat Finnigan, and said she will be working to help get Finnigan elected.
It's hard to predict what impact this will have, but if Susan Levi-Peters can persuade NDP voters to back the Liberals in Miramachi, that increases Liberal chances of beating the Conservatives.
15 09 02 Marco Ricci
After being on the decline in Atlantic Canada earlier in the Summer, the new polling now shows the Liberals on the rebound in the Maritimes.
EKOS, Abacus & Nanos have all published polls over the past several days showing large Liberal leads in the Atlantic.
Today's new 308 update (Septemeber 1) shows Miramachi as a 56% chance of going Liberal.
Perhaps this riding should now be considered TCTC.
15 09 01 Tony
I was in this riding recently for a wedding, didn't see much election signage while there. Think this former Liberal stronghold returns to the Liberals this time. It's interesting that aside from 1984 up until 2008 this was solidly Liberal. Think it returns to the Liberals in 2015.
15 09 01 Two Words
History suggests that declining Conservative fortunes nationally should make this an easy pickup for the Liberals, but Tilly Gordon defied history in 2011 and became the first Conservative to win re-election in this riding in one hundred and eleven years, and was only the second Conservative to do so in its entire history. In her time as MP, the riding has received enormous helpings of federal gravy, which goes a long way toward boosting Gordon in an area of New Brunswick where people seem to have a collective chip on their shoulder about being forgotten by government (when, if you follow the government money over the years, the opposite is true, but I digress). Furthermore, the Liberal nomination battle here was a bruising and controversial affair, with scores of signed-up members discovering upon arriving at the nomination meeting that their memberships were invalid as a result of a problem with the membership forms they used. There's a lot of ill will from the membership toward the party as a result, especially given how close the nomination race was. For now, I'm holding off on calling this one - Conservative numbers in the Atlantic region are grim, but Tilly Gordon is better positioned than a Conservative incumbent in this riding ought to be in such a climate.
15 08 23 Mad Caper
This riding is up for grabs by any of the 3 major Parties.With little more than 5 points between 1st and 3rd place a slight increase by either the Tories or the N.D.P.could displace the Liberals for the lead.Should the New Democrats continue to grow their support nationally and the Tories support continue to decline this could potentially turn into a close 2 way race between the Libs and the N.D.P. and see the New Democrats squeak out an upset on Election night similar to what is taking place in St.John/Rothsay and fredericton
15 08 20 Richard B.
ThreeHundredEight.com has given the lead to the Liberals for the first time. Liberals=35.8%, Conservatives=31.5%, NDP=30.1% & Greens=2.4%. The NDP have yet to nominate a candidate, last election candidate is rumored to wish to run for the NDP provincial leadership and not risk a defeat at the hnds of the Liberals.
15 08 13 Atlantic Election Guy
This should fall into the TCTC category. With the Liberals still leading strongly in Atlantic Canada, this would be a bell-weather riding for those polls. While O'Neill-Gordon has been a good MP, the Miramichi area is still hurting due to high unemployment and the EI controversy reached this area too. With the addition of Pat Finnigan as the Liberal nominee (strong local figure) and the fact that the NDP has never done particularly well in this riding makes it less likely for a vote split.
While there has been third party candidates with strong showings in provincial election in various parts of the riding, they were either vote splitting the right (People's Alliance of NB) or were well liked in their riding (Frazier-Chiasson for the Greens). This is between the Liberals and the Conservatives only and could be an interesting riding.
15 08 12 F Master Flex
This is a tough one to call, especially this early out from election day.
If one were to just go by polling trends in Atlantic Canada, it would suggest a close Conservative-Liberal battle. However, this is further complicated by some notable local factors.
Conservative incumbent Tilly O'Neill Gordon has certainly been active in the riding, and is very much an MP who can be seen as 'bringing home the bacon' in terms of federal government goodies. The Conservatives are also aided by the addition of the Minto and Chipman area to the riding, which as the data shows was firmly Tory in 2011.
However, to what degree will changes to E.I. play a role here? Will O'Neill Gordon's local cache be challenged by larger factors beyond her control? This could help the Liberals, however, the provincial Liberals are not in very good standing in the Miramichi City part of the riding at the moment. Any scan of recent editions of The Miramichi Leader will elaborate on what I mean. Will discontent with the provincial Liberals spill over into the federal arena? All in all, this is possibly the toughest riding to call in New Brunswick at the moment.
15 08 12 Monkey Cheese
It appears that MGI has competitive again. The Liberals are doing quite well in the region following the first debate. People are starting to take Trudeau much more seriously. This support appears to be coming mostly at the expense of the Conservatives, but some from the NDP as well. The Liberals have the momentum right now, but given this riding has swung back and forth these past few months, I think that this should be moved to TCTC. I don't think there are very many safe Conservatives seats in the Atlantic left at this point.
15 08 10 Craig Hubley
As I raised the Green factor in this riding, I'll put it to bed finally. The Greens did not nominate breakthrough provincial candidate Rebeka Frazer-Chaisson (David Coon's colleague on the Conservation Council of NB, see here http://greenpartynb.ca/en/featured-candidates/556-rebeka-frazer-chiasson) but Matthew Clark , who offers a no-picture, generic bromide. This is not a candidate who'll attract any cross-riding volunteers, donations, swaps, co-voting of any kind. Thus the more even Green vs. NDP vs. Liberal split won't happen in this election and it's slightly less likely to hold Conservative. Given the collapse of the Harper seats in Nova Scotia I am going to hold off calling this Con for now.
15 08 09 Anna Rasmund
There was a huge upsurge in NDP and Green provincial vote in the last NB election. Much of the Green surge was in this (new) riding for reasons others have explained. The federal Greens are running their most successful provincial candidates federally and are in long term party building mode in New Brunswick. However, for this election, despite this being their single best prospect of a seat in Atlantic Canada, they probably can't break through. Not with so many other seats of national importance to focus on (Yukon and Guelph for instance). So the Green optimism plus the lagging fortunes of Justin Trudeau will create a more even three way split here to put the Conservative incumbent back in. Though with far less margin. It will be a four way race in the next federal election, almost for certain.
The issues that drove the provincial Greens to second place in some of these ridings (like Energy East, aboriginal role in natural resources, power of local districts to stop polluting projects) aren't going away.
David Coon is also a potential federal Green leader who has performed very well in the NB Legislature, standing for instance for consistent pipeline regulation (not one set of rules for small pipes and another for big ones). He will be helping the Greens campaign especially in this riding.
But as I say that just means a more evenly split vote, as there's not likely to be enough money, volunteers and vote swaps left over to swing this one, after the Greens get done with their higher priority ridings.
15 07 22 Richard B.
Clarification: Noticed that one previous note mentioned that Keith Vickers, who seems disgrunted with loss and problems encountered at Liberal Nomination convention came in 5 and last place at the convention may run. However, he has yet to declare to run as an independant so and has not been seen in the riding campaigning. It is very doubtful that their is a a Liberal split here. Also, the note claiming a possible thrust from the Greens is also doubtful because the Kent North provincial riding is only half in Miramichi-Grand Lake riding. The other provincial ridings saw no such Green surge. Also, the NDP has yet to nominate a candidate. It seems that the last election second place NDP finisher will not be running this time. Poor third place last time for the Liberals was Keith Vickers. The Liberals are definitely on the surge with recent visit by Justin Trudeau which mustered a large turn-out.
15 07 16 Richard B.
Although, Tilly O'Neill-Gordon is a hard working MP and obtained the Canadian Payroll Centre this has been through history a strong Liberal riding and it will return to the Liberals with the very popular Irish Acadian businessman Pat Finnigan. The riding composition changed by adding Big Cove First Nation(largest First Nation in NB) and the Minto region which both normally votes Liberal. The PC's strength is only found in the City which only accounts for 30% of the riding. The 25% Francophone outlying areas(will probably vote over 60% liberal) and a majority of the Irish vote will put the Liberals over the hump. The major issue is the economy and cuts to EI. Last provincial election saw the PC's punished because of EI reform, they will continue to do so.
15 06 25 Matthew E
Tilly O'Neill-Gordon has strong support in this riding, and this riding might have gone Liberal in 2015 except that the Liberals had a nominating convention SNAFU. Keith Vickers, who was considered a shoe-in for the Liberal candidacy and was the favorite of the establishment Liberals, was defeated by an unknown challenger. Keith Vickers is now considering running as an indepedent which means there will be 4 candidates running on the left. With Liberal vote split, I do not see how the Liberals can win this now and I don't believe NDP support is strong enough to overcome O'Neill-Gordon. I think this riding is now a Conservative lock.
15 04 14 Dr. Bear
Absolutely not a safe call for the CPC! While I am not surprised that Ms Tilly has held on for so long after her 'surprise' upset of Liberal MP Hubbard, I don't think she has a lock on this riding. Liberal numbers are steadily high in the Atlantic provinces and they're going to be eying this riding.
15 03 29 Jack Cox
The EI changes hit hard here and ironically this is the place where the Canadian Firearms Program HQ is located. This is not at all a lock for the Tories and Tilly O'Neill-Gordon has to be considered at risk considering liberal numbers in the Atlantic.
15 03 28 monkey
This is normally a Liberal riding as the Liberals held this until 2008 and likewise did well here provincially. Never mind unlike some of the southern ridings, this area was hard hit by the EI changes so although looking solely at the numbers might make one think it would be a Tory hold, history would suggest this will likely go Liberal.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
The single most interesting riding in New Brunswick. Despite the (error riddled) media reports localizing the RCMP attack on the Mi'kmaq-led anti-fracking protesters in 'Rexton', most of the major events happened within borders of this shifted riding.
Conservatives will wear the many faults of David Alward, fairly or not, as he was perceived as the driving force behind ignoring local service districts, First Nations, traditionally organized First Peoples who live off-reserve and are very numerous (and hard to count as they generally do not carry a 'status card'), scientists, doctors, and most active citizens.
The provincial results tell the story: In Kent North, Rébeka Frazer-Chiasson ran second with 1,707 votes = 18.17%. In Kent South, Tina Beers ran third ahead of the NDP with 953 votes = 10.00%. Provincial NB Greens ran also very respectably in Shediac Bay - Dieppe (7%), Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap Pele (8%), Moncton East, Centre and South (7%, 8%, 8%) and especially Memrancook-Tantramar (15%). 5.6% was the worst (in Dieppe) in these provincial Liberal-taken ridings. Of Conservative-taken ridings, none was below 6% Green, rising to 12% for Ira Wilbur in Albert. Green support was strong throughout the Southern and Capital district where David Coon won his seat in Fredricton itself - though not as strong as NDP in these places. This Green bloc emerging is a huge game-changer if it persists in federal elections or swings reliably to one party or another. Certainly provincial Liberals are now wary of a big Green upsurge splitting their vote and taking the balance of power, so look for some surprising Green policy items to be supported by NB Liberals.
Like carbon tax.
Anyway this trend is too new to predict, and some of these excellent Green campaigners will be running federally, and could split the vote seriously.
Thus with a three-way vote split, this seat is still favored Conservative, but it's not too late for a clear star to emerge. A Green vote is clearly a swing vote, and it can shift to a Liberal who says all the right things.
Miramichi itself

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