Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-04-25 12:18:16

Constituency Profile


Goguen, Robert

LeBlanc, Luc

Melanson, Luc

Petitpas Taylor, Ginette

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (205/205 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Robert Goguen


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15 10 09 Atlantic Election Guy
This one is solidly in the Liberal camp. The ground game has been strong over the past few months and the good Liberal numbers in Atlantic Canada are a direct result of the shift in ridings like this one. Goguen did himself no favours with his controversial comments in the committee about legalizing prostitution and constantly interfering in the Moncton Arena debate (continually promising money that will never come). While Trudeau has not stopped here, Dominic LeBlanc campaigning for Petitpas-Taylor will have a strong effect. With the NDP crashing nationally and the anti-Harper movement in the East, a solid Liberal gain.
15 10 02 R.O.
Its surprising how little attention this riding has got , not many leaders have been to Moncton either other than Mulcair I believe . conservative mp Robert Goguen was elected in 2011 and running for re-election . this riding was a very close 3 way race in 2011 and ndp did very well in this riding that year. I still suspect this riding is a closer race than some posters claim as polls indicate close races in Saint Johns and Fredericton both very similar small city type ridings . but this has been a historically liberal riding although Goguen being the incumbent makes it harder to predict.
15 09 13 Marco Ricci
It's interesting that no one has posted here on the Moncton riding since June.
I don't know if that reflects a lack of interest in the race here or the fact that people assume this riding is already a likely Liberal win or what.
At the moment, sites like 308 have this riding as being a 90% chance of going Liberal, so I guess I will maintain my Liberal prediction made below earlier this year.
15 09 13 A.S.
Maybe the bigger surprise than CPC winning MRD in 2011 is that they did so with .1% *less* share than when they lost in 2008, while the NDP rose astonishingly to make this an unforeseen 3-way race--given that, it's a wonder that the Dippers appear to have let this potential gift horse of a seat fall off-radar, unless it's local deference to the Justin-fueled back-to-normal re-Liberalization of the Maritimes (fueled hereabouts by old Trudeau family friend Dom LeBlanc next door). In any case, Goguen's rape remarks might subliminally explain *why* the Cons lost that smidgen of a share--and say this for those 2011 NDP numbers: however tokenly, they open up the possibility of a third-place Goguen.
15 06 04 R.O.
I feel its too early to make a solid prediction here although its true the riding had been historically liberal , I don't think the new liberal candidate is that high profile compared to former mp Brian Murphy . and the conservative vote gradually increased here in recent elections , they were a long way back in 2004 but in more recent elections found more support in the riding. Robert Goguen also has the advantage of being an incumbent and better known in the riding than he was last time . its true some polls show leads out east for the liberals but its hard to say how individual ridings would go as other local factors come into play .
15 04 28 RC
The Tories would have to be headed for another majority (and probably a sizable one) for Goguen to hold onto this, I think. Pettipas-Taylor is a strong candidate for the Liberals, the NDP candidate is weak, and Goguen has a very low profile as a fairly undistinguished backbencher for the Tories.
15 04 20 MUBS
Last election was a 'fluke' for the CPC, this riding swings back to Liberal. Goguen has not had any kind of profile here for the last 3 1/2 years. This from a strong cons supporter.
15 03 29 Dr Bear
Update to my earlier post; Ginette Petitpas-Taylor won the nomination for the Liberals in Moncton. While not as well known as George Leblanc, this is a traditionally Liberal riding and Ms. Petitpas-Taylor stands a great chance at winning. It also helps that Liberal numbers are still high in the Atlantic provinces. Liberal gain.
15 03 28 monkey
The Tories barely won due to a strong split on the centre-left and a better than normal showing, but with the Liberals rebounded this should be an easy pick up for them. The Tories may win in Riverview, but they will lose in Moncton and lose badly in Dieppe.
15 03 28 Brian A
As a correction to my earlier post, Mayor LeBlanc was upset for the Liberal nomination by a very strong candidate active in Victim Services with the RCMP. In any event, the result doesn't matter. The Conservative MP is a backbencher of no real notoriety, and the NDP candidate is a very nice - but otherwise non-descript - professor from the UofM. In order for Goguen to hold on here, the Liberals would have to implode in Atlantic Canada, and for the NDP to win here...well, I'm not certain of the conditions that this would require. But in any case, this riding is going Liberal.
15 03 28 Marco Ricci
Ginette Petitpas-Taylor is the coordinator of RCMP Victim Services for this region. George LeBlanc, the Mayor of Moncton, has a higher profile, but whoever the Liberals choose for the nomination today (March 28th) will have a good résumé.
This used to be one of the safest Liberal seats in New Brunswick until 2011, so presumably there is a strong chance of it returning to the Liberals in 2015 as long as the Liberal numbers hold up in NB during the election.
CPC MP Robert Goguen may also be hurt by the fact that he made inappropriate comments about rape at a Parliamentary Committee last year. There was a lot of negative response towards him in the press.
15 03 26 Fairview Resident
The Liberals have a huge lead in Atlantic Canada and are ahead in New Brunswick. They will pick up seats in New Brunswick. This is their best chance of a pick up.
15 03 23 phil03
My hometown riding, usually trend liberal but with Harper numbers in the Maritimes down in the sewer and a very popular Moncton mayor as a candidate for the PLC I am fairly comfortable to say that the grits won't even need to fight for this one. Solid PLC
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
A correction to Brian's post; the Liberals have two potential candidates, the current mayor George Leblanc and Ginette Petitpas-Taylor. Not knowing either candidate, I would guess that Leblanc will be selected. However unknown candidates (at least to me) have been selected in other ridings over ones I was familiar with (so who knows who will win?). That being said, this riding was an 'accidental' win for the CPC in 2011 and with the Liberals soaring in the Atlantic provinces, it's unlikely an unremarkable backbencher will be the CPC's focus.
15 03 21 Brian A
My riding currently. The Conservative MP is a Harper lapdog with no other real outstanding qualities; the Liberal candidate is the current - and very popular - Mayor of Moncton; the NDP candidate is a college professor and ran unsuccessfully for the NBNDP in the last provincial election.
With the Liberal numbers sky-high in Atlantic Canada, this riding would automatically be considered in play for the Liberals. The catch is that New Brunswick is where the government is polling the highest out of all the Atlantic provinces. However, MRD is not in play for Harper this time; a strong francophone Mayor running for the Liberals will be too tough for Goguen to beat, and MRD is too urban to be a riding that would naturally lean right. Liberal pick-up.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
This could go like Fredericton with the strong Green provincial vote leading to a three way vote split in this riding re-electing the Con.
However, I think it's more like Miramichi-Grand Lake where an emerging swing voting bloc is willing to vote Green but not necessarily staying there, if a Liberal or NDP candidate emerges (say a former Green) who promises to take on their parties over Energy East and climate change.
If party line quackers are nominated by both Liberals and NDP here, who have no profile of standing up against officials and authorities, this one goes to the Cons. Giving a few more years for the NDP or Liberals to go recruit Greens.
The fracking issue doesn't dominate quite as much as it does further north in Kent County but no one wants a return to the David Alward confrontation.
Moncton voters are generally aware that the national press misrepresented and misled about the fracking confrontation, and they want a local voice. Not a party puppet. That may be more of a factor here than anywhere else in NB.

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