Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-11 00:08:14

Constituency Profile


Bourdon, Nicolas

Gascon-David, Catherine

Joly, Mélanie

Mercier, Gilles

Moughrabi, Wiliam

Mourani, Maria

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2840.58%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (186/231 polls, 78.18% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Maria Mourani

   (45/231 polls, 21.82% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Stéphane Dion


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15 10 16 DSR
Marco, I appreciate what you're saying. The reason I mentioned it is that I wouldn't consider Joly to have much pulling power beyond Montreal - unlike say Dion or Trudeau - and so it seemed a relatively pointless exercise at a time in the campaign when she ought to have better things to do in her own riding if is really close.
15 10 15 Marco Ricci
DSR, I'd be cautious about reaching any conclusions about a riding based on whether a candidate is campaigning for a day in another part of the country.
Many MP's & candidates will sometimes visit another riding far away from their own, but it does not necessarily mean they are guaranteed to be way ahead.
I remember that in 2008 on this site, some people assumed that because Justin Trudeau appeared with Stephane Dion in Vancouver at a Liberal event, it must mean he was way ahead. As we learned on Election Night, he was still in a tough race with BQ MP Vivian Barbot and only won by 3 points.
So while it's possible that the Liberal bump in Montreal will pull Melanie Joly over the finish line, the fact that she spent some time in Ottawa with another candidate doesn't really tell us that for sure.
15 10 13 DSR
I notice that Melanie Joly was campaigning alongside the Lib candidate in Ottawa Centre on Monday which suggests that they are either confident that Ahuntsic is going their way or that they've given up. I guess the former.
15 10 11 Marco Ricci
I agree with 'observer' that Ahuntsic has been a tough riding to call in the past 3 or so elections, and there has been one main reason for that -- Maria Mourani.
She has done an excellent job of holding onto a core vote and developing relationships with individual voters within her riding and managing to pull off narrow victories each time. She was able to narrowly edge out former Liberal MP Eleni Bakopanos in 2006 & 2008, and then managed to survive the BQ wipeout in 2011 during a 3-way split between the BQ, NDP & LPC.
Going into this election she was probably the favourite, and it's still possible that she will again pull out another narrow win. The Mainstreet Poll a couple weeks ago below had her ahead, but not by a lot. And since that time the Liberal vote appears to have gone up in Montreal and the NDP appears to have leveled off. Seat projection sites are showing this riding as now going Liberal, but seat projections based on math don't always capture local factors.
Meanwhile, Melanie Joly faced the challenge of entering the race a bit late after a long nomination battle, with some people criticizing her for moving to federal politics so soon after her Mayoral run a couple years ago. But it's possible that Joly could prove a strong campaigner here and edge out Mourani. She wasn't far behind in the previous riding poll, and the Liberals have gained support since then. She was able to give Denis Coderre a much closer run for Mayor than he expected. She will presumably also get a lot of help from Justin Trudeau's volunteers, and if Trudeau looks like he is still in a position to beat Harper and become PM in a week from now, that could push her over the top. Trudeau's riding is right next door.
I'll say TCTC for now in case a new riding poll comes out in the final week.
15 10 09 observer
All I can say about this riding, is NEVER ever, ever, write off Maria Mourani. IF she wins again on Oct 19th, she will eclipse the legendary Anne 'Landslide Annie' McLellan of Edmonton, who time and again managed to keep her riding in Edmonton against all the odds, by a handful of votes. Mourani's electoral record mirrors McLellan. and it would not surprise me at all to see her headed back to Ottawa.
15 09 25 Marco Ricci
A new Mainstreet Poll shows that this race is close.
NDP's Maria Mourani has an edge, but it's not a big one, and Mainstreet says there's some volatility here.
NDP - 35%
LIB - 30%
BQ - 12%
CPC - 12%
15 09 18 Nick M.
I agree with #ABC about this riding. bloc vote bleeds to NDP.
15 09 17 #ABC51
The old Bloc Québécois vote is continuing to consolidate around the NDP.
As such, they stand to benefit most from the fact that popular BQ incumbent Maria Mourani is no longer running.
I'll take the NDP by 5 to 10 points over the Liberals, with the Bloc languishing in a surprisingly distant 3rd.
15 09 14 A.S.
The electoral equivalent of an air-pocket plane crash survivor, Mourani's taken the inevitable party-switch step and doesn't seem *too* much worse for wear, i.e. if she loses, it's more because of Melanie Joly than because of herself. And even as a Liberal star candidate, Joly's got a bit of Justin's 'inch deep' problem (which she also had as mayoral candidate), so it's too early to anticipate *anything* here...
15 09 02 Marco Ricci
A new Mainstreeet/PostMedia poll shows that the Liberals are up 10 points in Montreal from 2011, while the Conservatives & BQ are down & NDP are stable.
'NDP in virtual tie with Liberals on Montreal Island, Conservatives, Bloc slipping: poll'
We will need to see further data over the next month to see how these trends apply to Ahuntsic-Cartierville.
15 08 26 Monkey Cheese
The Conservative candidate here is now facing controversy after sexist comments on his blog resurfaced. The comments seem to condone violence against women. When the news of this broke, offered a fake, half-assed apology. The Conservatives sure know how to pick them in Quebec.
Melanie Joly was nominated for the Liberals. She is a strong candidate and will certainly give Ms. Mourani a run for her money. Slight Liberal edge, but TCTC for now.
Le candidat conservateur ici est maintenant face à une controverse après des commentaires sexistes sur son blog refait surface. Les commentaires semblent fermer les yeux sur la violence contre les femmes. Quand les nouvelles de cette éclaté, a offert une fausse excuse, foireux. Les conservateurs savent que la façon de les ramasser au Québec.
Melanie Joly a été nominé pour les libéraux. Elle est un candidat solide et va certainement donner à Mme Mourani une course pour son argent. Léger avantage libéral, mais TCTC pour l'instant.
15 08 24 Marco Ricci
Jean-Marc Leger says that his polling shows the Liberals up 3 points in Québec and that he thinks this riding will be competitive. (Eric Grenier's site shows it as a likely Liberal win at the moment).
Melanie Joly was nominated as the Liberal candidate last night and it received a lot of media coverage, although she will now have to get busy competing against Mourani since Mourani has been in place for some time.
Mourani received some criticism from journalist Jean Lapierre as well as some BQ supporters online this weekend when it was revealed that her new NDP bio does not contain any mention of the fact that she was a BQ MP. Several BQ supporters online said they will no longer be supporting her for trying to erase her past.
What all of this amounts to is hard to say at this early stage.
15 08 20 2015
Il y a 2-3 sondages la semaine passée ou l'NPD s'approche 47% au Québec et le BQ est ~15-17%. Je pense que le BQ va etre chanceux de retenir leur depot (15%) dans cette circonscription avec leur nouveau candidat. Alors maintenant, c'est probablement l'NPD qui va gagner ici par ~5-10% au-dessus du PLC.
15 07 12 #ABC51
Mulcair and Mourani are too popular to lose anywhere but West Island. In an election where Justin Trudeau might suffer the fate of Robert Bourssa, it's hard to trust the fate of most Quebec Liberals.
15 07 09 mr_vince
as incredible as it can be, this riding along with Abitibi-Baie-James-nunavuk-Eeyou was Bq for a long time, thanks to Maria Mourani who was able to create a linik with a big part of the allophones in here.
Even if Ahuntscis has a bigger francophone part, the new arrangement of the riding which include a big part of the old Saint-Laurent-Cartierville riding will help Mélanie Joly to win as a Liberal. Ahuntscic will split NPD-BQ-LPC while Cartierville will massively vote LPC which will give Joly a big edge
Sadly for the BQ, if the riding stay at it his, it will probably never go back to them.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
With redistribution this seat does not become a Bloc-NDP race but rather a safe Liberal seat. Although the NDP will do a lot to get Mourani elected, the Liberals will have the organizational advantage. If Melanie Joly wins the LPC nomination, it will further solidify it as an LPC gain.
15 06 21 Marco Ricci
The June 19 EKOS poll shows Liberal support going back up again in Québec, so it looks like Liberal numbers are recovering after the recent drop.
This will remain an uncertain riding until the October election when we know what the numbers are then. It can't be predicted months in advance, and the same will apply to many ridings in the 2015 Election.
15 05 24 Mr. Dave
Support for the Liberals has taken a nose-dive in Quebec over the past few months.
Ridings like this one, a stronger level of Liberal support would probably see it go Red, but should the latest trend in the polls continue, this one should be Orange on election night.
15 04 09 Jeanne Marie
Melanie Joly is a charismatic candidate, and her nomination in Ahuntsic will propel the Liberals in an already Liberal-friendly riding.
15 04 01 Marco Ricci
Too close to call until election time. It was probably a smart move for Maria Mourani to run as an NDP MP because it would have been hard for her to get elected as an Independent MP, even though she has some personal popularity. Running for the NDP allows her to appeal to both sovereigntist & federalist voters and to appeal to the many allophones & racial minorities that live in this riding. This could slow down some of the movement of allophones towards Justin Trudeau & the Liberals. Maria Mourani should not be underestimated because she has been capable of winning several close elections (2006, 2008 & 2011). She was able to beat former Liberal MP Eleni Bakopanos in 2006 & 2008, and was also able to hold on during the Orange Wave in 2011. Some of this has been because of luck. However, some of it because Mourani is a strong campaigner & worked hard to reach out to racial minorities that didn't normally vote BQ. She may be able to retain some of those voters.
As for the Liberals, they have the potential to win this riding back based on their strength in Montréal and Justin Trudeau's popularity with allophones & racial minorities. His own Papineau riding borders Ahuntsic and he can probably mobilize a good ground team here. However, the Liberals need to pick their candidate. There are about 7 candidates running for the Liberal nomination, and some of them were not happy when Mélanie Joly appeared in the race. And although Joly is popular with some voters, she was criticized by the press for leaving municipal politics to go federal.
One advantage for the Liberals is that the re-distributed riding makes the riding more favourable to the Liberals by bringing in a Liberal portion of Saint-Laurent-Cartierville.
It's also possible that some voters may not like the contradictory position of Mourani. She joined the NDP by buying an NDP membership, but didn't join the NDP caucus in the House. So Mourani joined the NDP in one way, but not in another way!
15 03 28 monkey
This was sort of one of the flukes as despite not being a BQ stronghold they managed to hold it, but with the BQ's swing to the strongly nationalist side, I cannot see them performing here well. While it should help the NDP, I still think the fact the Liberals would have won here in 2011 despite their disastrous showing makes them the favourites.
15 03 25 David
Les résultats de la dernière campagne électorale rapportés sur la nouvelle carte aurait donné les le PLC gagnant en 2011. Tout laisse croire que ce comté votera PLC à l'image de toutes les circonscriptions renfermant une forte communauté anglophone et/ou allophone.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
Ms Mourani was the fortunate victim of circumstance in 2011. The Liberals ran a strong candidate and deflected the orange wave. Without Eloyan (or an equally strong candidate running), this riding would have voted NDP and Ms Mourani would have been yet another bloc casualty in 2011. With her ejection from the BQ and subsequent jump to the NDP (which I predicted would happen the day she was kicked out of the party), Mourani has a shot of keeping her seat, but I'm not very optimistic for her. The riding has changed a fair amount with redistribution; some of the more Francophone areas of the riding (and the parts that sometimes swing PQ provincially) have been cut out for much more Liberal-friendly turf. As well, the NDP have crashed amongst non-francophones in Quebec (lots of those in this riding), who have swing back to the Liberals. The Liberals also have some strong candidates potentially lined up for this riding. Unless Liberal support starts to tank in Montreal (no sign of that), we're looking at the Liberals retaking most (or all) of the seats they had back in the '90's.
15 03 19 Mr. Montreal
Cette nouvelle circonscription résulte de l'ajout de Cartierville dans l'ancien comté d'Ahuntsic. Fort d'une députée bloquiste sortante très réputée dans le coin, Ahuntsic est en 2011 le seul comté dans la grande région de Montréal à élire une députée du Bloc québécois et parmi quatre seulement dans la province. La défection de Mme Mourani vers le NPD s'annonce de mauvaise augure pour la formation indépendantiste, en plus des couleurs très rouges de Cartierville. Léger avantage pour les Libéraux avec Trudeau qui est candidat tout juste au Sud.
15 03 18 JFBreton
Si Mélanie Joly remporte l'investiture libérale, on assistera à une lutte épique entre elle et Maria Mourani (NPD, ex-BQ). Lutte serrée à prévoir.

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