Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-21 12:41:17

Constituency Profile


Bastiani, Corina

Carpentier, Claude

Laberge, Yves

Plamondon, Louis

Tabah, Nicolas

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (236/236 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Louis Plamondon


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15 10 02 Marco Ricci
This riding was beginning to fall into the NDP column a few weeks ago, but with BQ rising and the NDP falling, that opportunity may be slipping away.
No way to know for sure yet, but it's possible that Louis Plamondon may now hang on (and deny Lawrence MacCauley the opportunity to become the new Dean of the House on Oct 19!)
15 09 28 JFBreton
Le bloc est en hausse et le NPD est en forte baisse. Ajoutez à cela la popularité personnelle de Louis Plamondon. Le bloc peut espérer conserver cette circonscription.
15 09 22 Teddy Boragina
I disagree with the idea of a Bloc win here, but, not as strongly as I have disagreed with some other EPP calls.
The Bloc can win here, and even might win based on current polls.
However, the only way the Bloc wins is if they actually are putting resources into the riding. I've not seen evidence they are doing so, but by the same token, I've not seen evidence they are NOT doing so.
However, without any evidence, I'm forced to presume the status quo - IE that they are not dumping money and volunteers into the riding - and if that is true, the NDP will pick up this riding.
15 09 17 #ABC51
While the NDP will lose some ground to the Liberals among non-Francophone voters, all signs point to a continued collapse of the Bloc Québécois vote to the benefit of Team Mulcair. Look for the the BQ to finish with no seats on October 19.
15 09 12 Jason
If I were advising the Bloc, I would tell them to pour all their resources to try to retain this seat. This is the only seat in the province where the Bloc has a chance of winning in 2015.
If the party is wiped out in 2015 then they are likely gone forever. If they come out of the election with one seat, they can try to make modest gains in the next election.
The contest in this riding will be between the NDP's province wide momentum versus Louis Plamondon's 31 year presence in the riding.
15 09 09 Dr.Bear
The BQ are doing worse than they did in 2011. Various polling sites are suggesting this will either fall to the NDP or is too close to call. Duceppe is fond of quoting Yogi Berra's 'It ain't over till it's over' and there is a chance the BQ could rebound, however it sure is competitive for the NDP.
15 09 06 Marco Ricci
The BQ is currently projected to lose this seat, based on current numbers. The BQ is below the level of support it received in 2011, so Louis Plamondon is vulnerable here unless BQ numbers rise during the rest of the campaign.
15 08 30 Mr. Dave
This should go back to being T.C.T.C.
With NDP strength in Quebec between 47% and 51%, it wouldn't take a very large shift of voters from B.Q. to NDP to flip this seat.
15 08 28 JFBreton
TCTC à mon avis. Le NPD est fortement en tête au Québec, le Bloc descend de sondage en sondage. Malgré la popularité toute personnelle de Louis Plamondon, pourra-t-il une fois de plus résister à la vague orange? Si il y avait toujours un effet Bloc dans certains coins du Québec en 2011, ça semble bien différent en 2015. Les Québécois semblent avoir décidé que pour battre Harper, la solution n'était pas de voter Bloc.
15 08 27 Spx
Barring some miracle, at this point I can't see the Bloc winning any riding whatsoever and this one will probably turn NDP also like pretty much every riding did the last election around.
15 08 25 PHYSASTR Master
The BQ are on average down by 6% from 2011 in Quebec. This was close last time, and the notion that any BQ MP is safe is absurd at this point. All BQ calls should definitely be TCTC at this point, if not called for other parties. This is the closer of the two current Bloc calls. The other, if not TCTC, should be NDP, while TCTC is more appropriate here.
15 07 11 A.S.
The question here is: how well would the Bloc do here if Plamondon *wasn't* running? I, for one, can picture open-seat 'Sorel Separatistes' defaulting rather decisively in an NDP direction (especially given the steeltown history hereabouts)--at least if Mario Beaulieu rather than Gilles Duceppe was leader. Or maybe, even then...
15 07 09 mr_vince
Sorel And the suburbs are probably one of the most sovereinist citizens in Quebec even if Nicolet-Becancour tend to be more soft-ones (NPD voters), I do know a lot of people in here and Louis Plamondon is their guy. He'll get reelected with a bigger margin than in 2011.
Easy bloc win
15 07 05 NonPartisan
Louis Plamondon survived the orange wave, and with a stronger Bloc should have no problem winning again.
15 06 09 Observer
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 03 28 monkey
If the BQ manages to win a single seat in Quebec, this will be it as Louis Plamandon is quite popular and asides from last election got over 50% in every previous one. But with some polls putting the BQ down in the teens, even he is not 100% safe. If he does lose his seat though, it will likely be the end of the BQ.
15 03 28 B.W.
Unless one of the opposing parties find a strong candidate to run against him, Louis Plamondon will once again be reelected in this riding due to his name recognition in addition to being the Dean of the House of Commons.
15 03 26
Last election, I figured that I was being too hard on the BQ in saying they would lose official party status, but the true results were even worse. This is the only seat that I am confident they will win considering they are polling below 20% in most cases.
15 03 25 Marco Ricci
Although Louis Plamondon has said he is running again, he actually hasn't been re-nominated yet, so we have to wait and see. Second, considering how narrow Plamondon's win was in 2011, I'm not sure one can predict a win for him yet. The BQ is not exactly in the greatest shape these days.
15 03 21 Dr. Bear
The Dean of the House of Commons survived the Orange Crush of 2011 and will be the only BQ incumbent running again. I think that in of itself would suggest a BQ hold.

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