Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Bellechasse-Les Etchemins-Lévis

Prediction Changed
2015-03-17 23:41:12

Constituency Profile


Bélisle, André

Blaney, Steven

Daigle, Jean-Luc

Dubé, Antoine

Turgeon, Jacques

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (268/268 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Steven Blaney


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15 09 19 A.S.
Just as Beauce had Robert Cliche in the 1960s, Lévis had Jean-Paul Harney in the 1980s--and yet both eluded the Orange Crush in 2011; go figure. Blaney's likelier to fall than Bernier, of course--but that's generically speaking, even if it's not unrealistically speaking (and with the Cons bottoming out provincewide in the polls, it's *absolutely* not unrealistically speaking)
15 09 17 #ABC51
Blaney will probably win, unfortunately, but faltering BQ and Tory numbers throughout Quebec can only benefit the NDP in ridings like this one.
15 09 15 Dr.Bear
Let's do some math...
The BQ is polling at about half what it got in 2011 and most of that has gone to the NDP. In that election, the CPC got in this riding about 44%; the NDP got about 34%; the BQ got about 15%. So if this riding follows the general trends, then we can expect the BQ to get about 7.5% and the NDP getting 41.5%. That is uncomfortably close to what Blaney got in 2011 and does not take into account that the CPC are also down compared to what they got in 2011. The math would suggest that this riding is too close to call.
I know this contradicts what I said a month ago, but I can't ignore what the numbers are telling me. If I were a betting man, I would put my money on Blaney. He has done a good job, especially in comparison to some of his cabinet colleagues. Usually, when it comes to predictioneering, I am of the opinion: minister, shminister! When you party is going down, having a cabinet portfolio doesn't really help you (just ask Josee Vernier or Lawrence Cannon). So while I think Blaney won't benefit from being in cabinet, I do believe his doing a decent job will help buffer an NDP onslaught. TCTC.
15 09 03 Tony
Will be very close but Blaney's being a minister should help him win this riding.
15 08 27 Spx
With the latest poll numbers having the NDP even higher and the CPC in free fall, I think pretty much all CPC ridings in the province except Beauce are probably in play now .. so I'll call this one a NDP gain
15 08 21 Balon
Three recent polls - CROP in Quebec, a national Abacus poll, and a Quebec-heavy Leger poll - all have the NDP at 40+ % in the province and the CPC and Bloc in the mid-teens. The CROP poll in particular has the NDP at 45% in the Quebec City region while the CPC are at 23%, LPC at 18% and Bloc at 13%. Kinda looking like a second Orange Crush.
While I assume Lebel and Bernier will win their seats for the Conservatives, with numbers like these, there is almost no chance the other ridings in this area will vote anything but NDP.
15 08 05 Dr. Bear
I expect the NDP to do a bit better as he consolidate the anti-CPC vote, however it won't be enough to win. It is possible that the CPC could stink things up in Quebec, however I don't think that is likely at all. I can confidently call this for the CPC.
15 03 17 JFBreton
Terrain fertile pour les Conservateurs au Québec, avec un vieux fond conservateur (et autrefois créditiste) sur lequel le PCC et la CAQ ont su bâtir, comme pour la Beauce et Lévis-Lotbinière. Blaney pourra facilement se glisser premier dans une lutte à trois ou à quatre.

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