Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 01:08:46

Constituency Profile


Bibeau, Marie-Claude

Bonsant, France

Côté, Kévin

Labrador, Gustavo

Marshall, Korie

Rousseau, Jean

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 50.01%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (207/228 polls, 93.65% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jean Rousseau

   (21/228 polls, 6.35% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Pierre-Luc Dusseault


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15 10 17 Teddy Boragina
The NDP has the edge here, at this time, and has had the edge for a long time in the polls.
15 10 10 Spx
Interesting that this one has been called for the NDP without any of the contributors actually making a call yet. I think with the Liberals up this riding could follow Brome-Missisquoi in turning red. I think it should be TCTC for now.
15 09 21 A.S.
Not only is Bonsant a factor here, but the Liberals seem to be banking on Bibeau as one of their stronger rest-of-Quebec hopes, so Jean Rouseeau might be squeezed from a couple of ends in case the Quebec NDP balloon de-inflates a little--*in case*. I wouldn't make big bets on this; but btw/this and Brome-Miss, it'd be interesting to see the revitalized federal Libs hugging the border with VT/NH--what would Bernie Sanders think, I wonder...
15 09 08 R.O.
This is a riding where the bloc are running a former mp, France Bonsant had been mp from 2004-2011 until losing to ndp candidate. Current ndp mp Jean Rousseau is running for re-election in the riding. With the bloc running a well known candidate it might be a race that is closer than others its tough to say.
C'est un comté où le bloc exécutent un ancien député, France Bonsant avait été mp à partir de 2004-2011 jusqu'à perdre pour candidat néo-démocrate. Current NPD MP Jean Rousseau est en cours d'exécution pour ré-élection dans la circonscription. Avec le bloc exécutant un candidat bien connu qu'il pourrait être une course qui est plus près que les autres son dur à dire.
15 06 09 Observer
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 03 28 monkey
If the Liberals are able to do well off the Island of Montreal, this would probably be on of their best bets as its a fairly federalist riding, but still Liberal support is quite soft here and Mulcair still remains ahead as most popular leader outside of Montreal in Quebec, so if an election were held today, I think it would be a lot closer, but the NDP would narrowly hold this.
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
While the former BQ MP is trying to win back this seat, I think those days are gone. Provincially this riding tends to vote Liberal and Federally swings towards to more popular leader in Quebec (Charest won this riding for the PC in the mid '90's, then Chretien afterwards). Jumping NDP, or rather Jack Layton, matched the trend. I think it'll be an NDP/Liberal race, with the NDP benefiting from former BQ voters trying to stop the Liberals from winning this seat. I say TCTC for the time being.

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