Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-29 20:48:15

Constituency Profile


Bourgeois, Diane

Choquette, François

Coderre, Émile

Côté, Pierre

Déry, Pascale

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (203/203 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

François Choquette


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15 09 21 A.S.
It's actually a *double* 'star' parachute here; not only Pascale Dery fresh from losing the Con nomination in Mount-Royal, but former Terrebonne Bloc MP Diane Bourgeois (wonder what kind of tea leaves prevented her from a Charmaine Borg rematch). And maybe Dery has a point in choosing Drummond--the PCs/Cons have had a surprisingly strong (if non-winning) record of runs here over the past score years--but in the end, it's just a little too far from the party's present Chaudiere-Appalaches centre of power. And besides, for whatever reason the NDP was already scoring 17% here *in 2008*. With a 2001 absolute majority to work from, methinks the Drummondville Dippers are best poised to just swat the supposedly-stellar pretenders away.
15 07 31 Woodworth
This is a strong NDP Seat. Pascale Dery was dumped into this riding as a Conservative candidate but she lacks roots and will lose.
15 03 29 Dr Bear
Drummond well wildly to the NDP in 2011. It seems likely that it'll stay that way as the NDP have been courting the soft nationalists in Quebec (which safely describes this riding). Expect the BQ to focus on many central Quebec ridings, like this one but I suspect the NDP will have the upper hand.
15 03 28 JFBreton
Je mise ici sur une réélection du NPD par tassement du vote bloquiste. La division du vote jouera sans doute pour beaucoup dans le résultat final.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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