Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-23 23:03:22

Constituency Profile


Ayala, Paulina

Beauséjour, Audrey

Budilean, Angela

Croteau, Guy

Dejean, Dayana

Le Seigle, Yves

Rodriguez, Pablo

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2970.66%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (197/225 polls, 89.65% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Paulina Ayala

   (28/225 polls, 10.35% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Emmanuel Dubourg


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 09 22 #ABC51
The Liberals continue to make impressive gains throughout Quebec, much to my disappointment.
There's just not enough BQ vote for the NDP to squeeze here to offset the fact that the Grits will gain substantial ground at the expense of the NDP and (for what it's worth in ridings like this one) the Tories. Chalk up a other defeat for the good guys, unfortunately.
15 09 20 Nick M.
Absolutely agree With A.S. about liberals short comings. But I am puzzled that EPP has so many for sure NDP ridings as TCTC. And so many ridings to be won by the CPC, Liberals and Bloc, which really are TCTC.
EPP does excellent job in places like the 905 area. But Quebec ridings, I don't understand the rationale.
Maybe it is just me.
15 09 15 A.S.
The Rodriguez-Ayala rematch: yet another one of those Justinmania takeback certainties that's looking nowhere near as certain as it once did--though there are signs as of writing that the Lib-vs-NDP provincial differential imbalance *might* be correcting itself, so not all hope is lost.
15 04 01 Marco Ricci
The NDP's Paulina Ayala won this riding over Liberal Pablo Rodriguez by 6 points in 2011. So although it was an NDP win, it was not a big win. Re-distribution also makes this riding more favourable to the Liberals by bringing in a Liberal portion from Bourassa and reducing the NDP margin to 2 points.
Rodriguez is also now Justin Trudeau's Campaign Chair for Québec and is in charge of the organizational structure. He will presumably be making sure that his own riding is one of the areas that has a good team on the ground!
Btw, while it's true that it was a close race here in 2004 & 2006, Rodriguez actually won here by 15 points in 2008 under Dion, so he had a comfortable win that year.
15 03 28 monkey
While I agree the Liberals are most likely to pick this up, I should note this riding is quite polarized between the Allophone areas which the Liberals do well in and the Francophone which tend to go either NDP or BQ. Lets remember Pablo Rodriguez's wins in 2004, 2006, and 2008 were not by huge margins so this is definitely a competitive riding and if the NDP can get a strong uptick in Quebec or the Liberals plummet, this could stay NDP.
15 03 27 Dr. Bear
The NDP squeaked through here in 2011 and now they're in trouble. This riding has a significant non-Francophone population (especially Italian-Canadians) who flirted with the NDP in '11 but no more. Polls show NDP support way down amongst this demographic and staying down (thanks to the NDP's pro-nationalist stance on a number of issues). I would expect RDP going very Liberal while Anjou will be a mix of red and orange. Easy liberal take-back.
15 03 23 JFBreton
Pablo Rodriguez tente un retour dans cette circonscription libérale emportée par la vague orange de 2011. Je prédis un glissement du vote vers le PLC et un gain libéral.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster