Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-14 12:53:17

Constituency Profile


Budilean, Carmen

Caron, Jean-François

Couture, Marielle

Larouche, Ursula

Pettersen, Marc

Trudel, Karine

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 520.11%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (169/213 polls, 78.03% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Claude Patry

   Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
   (35/213 polls, 17.53% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Dany Morin

   (9/213 polls, 4.44% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Denis Lebel


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15 10 14 Pulsetaker
New poll taken Oct 12 by Segma gives the new NDP candidate Karine Trudel a comfortable lead with 33% to 23% for the Liberal and the CPC and BQ further back with 20% each. This is a good example of how a crude seat projection model gives the seat to the CPC because Blackburn had a lot of support in 2011, but this time the Tories are running a nobody and it seems like the brief 'niqab bump' for the CPC and BQ is quickly receding. If the NDP is winning ridings like Chicoutimi and Jonquiere by these kinds of margins, it suggests that the NDP will still win a majority of Quebec seats on oct. 19
15 10 11 Dr. Bear
What evidence is there that CPC support has been growing in this riding? Has there been regional or local polls showing this? I know polling aggregates are suggesting a CPC win, but a large part of that prediction comes from past results. These results are quite inflated because popular MP Blackburn was the candidate. While I no longer rule out a CPC win, I think a BQ win is more likely, given the region's separatist leanings.
15 10 09 Neal Ford
I am now comfortable enough to say this riding will be sending a Conservative to Ottawa. The Tory support in the region has been steadily growing at NDP expense.
15 09 29 R.O.
This riding is open after mp Claude Patry retired , it voted ndp in 2011 but he went on to join bloc Quebecois . It had been conservative before that when Jean Pierre Blackburn was mp but he's retired and Ursula Larouche new candidate and not sure how she'll do. It had also been bloc in 2004 so its somewhat of a swing riding . considering ndp is down according to new polls such as abacus data- 30 ndp , 24 lib , 21 cpc , 20 bloc province wide an open riding like this could get interesting
Cette circonscription est ouvert après mp Claude Patry retraité , il ont voté pour les néo-démocrates en 2011 mais il a ensuite rejoindre bloc québécois . Il a été conservateur avant que lorsqu'Jean Pierre Blackburn a été mp mais il est retraité et Ursula Larouche nouveau candidat et ne sait pas comment elle va faire. Il avait également été bloc en 2004, donc ses quelque peu d'une circonscription de pivotement . considérant NPD est vers le bas selon de nouveaux sondages comme données d'Abacus- 30 néo-démocrates , 24 lib , 21 CPC , 20 bloc province vaste circonscription ouvert de ce genre pourraient devenir intéressantes
15 09 21 JFBreton
Segma Recherche Polls for Le Quotidien/Énergie-Rouge FM. NDP: 37,1% PCC 20,1% Bloc 20,0% Liberal 18% Easy win for the NDP.
15 09 20 Nick M.
From an outsider, this looks like a landslide for the NDP. This just might be another case of I don't know what is happening locally.
Conservative and Bloc vote are to both suffer this time in Quebec from last election. I am a bit puzzled by that this is TCTC. The NDP in theory could capture 60 percent of the vote.
15 09 17 #ABC51
Given the faltering Conservative campaign in Quebec, this is an easy NDP hold with Blackburn not running.
15 08 26 2015
The NDP are going to win this riding in a landslide if they can maintain their near 50% poll ratings.
15 06 21 A.S.
From a predictioneer's standpoint, this is easily the most overrated 'Tory target' in Quebec, the recent successes here having everything to do with the freak retro-Mulroneyite spot coalition J-P Blackburn was able to assemble--and reframing it as a potential regional 'Lebel effect' doesn't help any. Not to say the Cons won't try, esp. if they have the gumption to play off against the political trajectory of he who defeated Blackburn--but they'll have to do it using a clean deck.
15 04 07 Observer
This is another one that could go either NDP or Tory. Under Beaulieu, I don't see the Bloc making a comeback unless Harper really steps in it.
The Tories have held this riding for several election cycles until last time, and so have an organization. They also have the benefit of 'L'Effet Lebel' as the neighbouring MP Denis Lebel has served with distinction and has a very high profile now. Now, if the Liberals fare even slightly better than last time (which they will) it can shave enough off the Dipper vote to turn this one back to Blue.
15 04 06 2015
Si Blackburn ne présente pas pour le PCC, je pense pas qu'ils auraient plus que 30% dans cette circonscription même si leurs résultats dans les sondages sont plus fort que 2011. Alors c'est peut-être un lutte à trois ou le BQ a une bonne chance.
15 03 29 Dr Bear
This is a tough call. According to polling data, the CPC is quite competitive in the region, however some of these predictions incorporate previous polling patterns. Much of the previous CPC support was for Blackburn himself, who is not trying to regain his seat (at least at the moment). That said, I am reluctant to suggest a CPC take-back. As for a BQ hold (gain?), while this area does have separatist leanings, the disarray that we find the BQ might make it difficult for them to win this year. Never the less, I think the BQ will be focusing on this riding. That leave the NDP, who will be banking on soft-nationalist support. I am going to wait and see before I make a definitive call but I can see this being a three-way race (the Liberals are not going to be contenders here) and it's a distinct possibility that the BQ and NDP could split the nationalist vote, allowing the CPC to gain this seat (especially if they find a star candidate).
15 03 28 monkey
Should stay NDP as despite the BQ's past success here, they aren't doing too well in Quebec. The Tories have done well in the past few elections, but lets remember they had former Mulroney cabinet minister Jean-Pierre Blackburn as the candidate so I suspect many Tory votes were personal votes for Jean-Pierre Blackburn as opposed to genuine Tory votes. While they will probably do better than in most areas in the province, unless they find a star candidate, I cannot see them retaking this.
15 03 28 JFBreton
Difficile de prédire le gagnant ici, même si je penche à l'heure actuelle pour un 3 en 3 conservateur au Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean. Le Bloc présentera-t-il un candidat de qualité? Même chose pour les conservateurs? Le NPD pourra-t-il miser sur 2011? Ce pourrait être une lutte à trois des plus intéressantes.

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