Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 01:13:01

Constituency Profile


Charron, Sylvain

Graham, David

Hedjazi, Niloufar

Landry, Simon-Pierre

Régimbald, Johanne

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1490.26%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (282/282 polls, 99.99% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Marc-André Morin


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15 09 20 A.S.
The outermost Laurentides seat is accordingly the most God's Country giddy, whether through the narrower-than-usual gap with the Bloc in '11 or the ousting of the incumbent through nomination--or even something like the surprising 26.7% of the vote the Liberal candidate got in 2008, which is probably more of a spot fluke than a foretelling of what a recovered Justin can do (other than, maybe, nicking the incumbentless Bloc for 2nd) in 2015.
15 09 18 Nick M.
I wish I knew French. Why is this TCTC exactly? Bloc is down even more this election in the polls. On paper, easy NDP. Maybe I am missing something? After the French debates, if Ducceppe is unable to move votes, than forget about it. This is NDP.
15 09 17 #ABC51
While the NDP will lose some ground to the Liberals among non-Francophone voters, all signs point to a continued collapse of the Bloc Québécois vote to the benefit of Team Mulcair. Look for the the BQ to finish with no seats on October 19.
15 09 10 Spx
I would say the Bloc is officially dead at this point and won't play any role in this riding. Should be in the NDP column.
15 09 09 Dr.Bear
Why is this riding listed as TCTC? The NDP are seemingly unstoppable in Quebec and the BQ are too short of funds to focus here. If the BQ rebound in the weeks to come, then maybe this will be painted blue. Till then, team orange is holding this seat.
15 06 09 Observer
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 04 22 David
Une des 15 circonscriptions qui va surement revenir dans le giron du Bloc Québécois au soir des élections pourvu que ce parti maintienne un 25% de votes dans l'ensemble du Québec. Un des terrains les plus fertiles pour le mouvement souverainiste.
15 03 28 monkey
A fairly nationalist riding so should probably go NDP, but I am holding off calling as Quebecers are known for switching on a moment's notice. The one exception is Mont Tremblant which is fairly federalist, but with a young transient population would naturally favour the NDP anyways and besides its not large enough to have too big an impact on this riding.
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
With the NDP as the new default vote for the soft nationalist, we should expect to see this riding go orange once again. If the BQ become popular again, this could be an easy pick up. Some forums have even suggested that the Liberals have significant growth in this riding. I'm still saying this will be an NDP hold, however it'll be interesting to see if the turfing of the incumbent for Mr. Laundry will have an significant effect.

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