Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-07-15 15:31:17

Constituency Profile


Barré, Thomas

Chénier, Pierre

Cloutier, Philippe

Groguhé, Sadia

Leclerc, Mario

Liberman, Matthew Iakov

Romanado, Sherry

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (162/248 polls, 67.56% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Sadia Groguhé

   (86/248 polls, 32.44% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Djaouida Sellah


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15 10 13 thenewteddy@hotmail.com
Like Saint Jean, this riding only falls once you reach a 29%-23% provincewide lead for the NDP over the Bloc.
However, at those levels, if the Liberals are at 26%, they come within a point of contention here as well, and as such, they, not the Bloc, might actually win this riding if the NDP loses.
15 09 20 A.S.
With redistribution, any onetime Liberal advantage isn't what it was (St Lambert having been ceded to Brossard); besides, the simple name 'Longueuil' is enough to signify 'Grit desert'. History (and it's a powerful one) would also dictate this as a prime BQ takeback target were the Bloc not a diminished cartoon of what it once was--that is, we're likelier to see an across-the-St-Lawrence echo of a '20% Duceppe' circumstance.
15 06 09 Observer
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 03 29 Dr Bear
Back before the sponsorship scandal the predecessor of this riding tending to vote Liberal and polling numbers seem to suggest they are competitive again. However the BQ used to be the top contender to the Liberals and always ran a close race. With orange the new light blue, the NDP now stand as the ones holding off the Liberals. I would suggest the BQ supporters will vote NDP to hold off the Liberals, but Liberal numbers are up enough on the south shore to make this a close race. One to watch!

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