Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-11 00:06:32

Constituency Profile


Belanger, François

Biello, Tina

Bilodeau, Hélène

Boucher, Claude

Gagné, Steve

Gourde, Jacques

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (232/234 polls, 99.97% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jacques Gourde

   (2/234 polls, 0.03% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Christian Paradis


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 11 Dr. Bear
Not long ago, this looked like an easy NDP gain. Not anymore. Amazing what a veiled Woman can do to shift public opinion. While I do not discount an equal shift away from the Conservatives over the last week of the campaign, for the moment it'll certainly go to team blue.
15 10 10 Adeline96
The way the Conservative Party is polling now in Quebec, this one should be staying in their hands. I think this one should be returned to the blue column, especially with a resurgent Bloc now eating into NDP support.
15 10 09 Teddy Boragina
Some polls are showing the Tories nearing 30% in Quebec. Even if they are only at half that level, the NDP will be too busy playing defence in the ridings they actually hold at this time to nab any extras from the Tories, even if the redistributed numbers are there to assist.
15 10 09 The jackal
With the CPC surging in the polls in Quebec I can safely call this a Tory hold.
15 10 09 Stevo
Unthinkably (or not so unthinkably, given Quebec's quirky and extreme electoral shifts), the NDP's support in Quebec is collapsing while Conservative support has firmed up in the low 20s. About time to call this one for the Conservatives.
15 10 04 John
Last election, this riding was a tight race between the Conservatives and the NDP, with the Liberals trailing a distant third. The Liberals would have to pick up a lot of support here to take this riding, so it remains a Conservative-NDP race.
Now, with the NDP trailing in the polls nationally, I'll go out on a limb and suggest this riding goes Conservative.
15 10 02 JRW
Given his incumbency and the favourable numbers for the CPC in this reqion,time has passed for the TCTC designation. Chalk this one up for Monsieur Gourde.
15 09 28 JFBreton
Remontée des Conservateurs et du Bloc au Québec, baisse du NPD. Le transfert de vote naturel entre le NPD et le Bloc avantage le candidat conservateur sortant. Circonscription bleue en terrain fertile pour les Conservateurs. Réélection de Gourde.
15 09 17 #ABC51
With the BQ and the Tories faring poorly throughout the province, the NDP should be able to pick-up marginal seats from both parties.
15 09 17 Nolan R O'Brien
I think that this riding is a key NDP-Conservative battleground but personally I think that the Conservatives will hold on by a whisker.
Je pense que cette circonscription est un champ de bataille clé NDP - conservateur, mais personnellement, je pense que les conservateurs vont tenir d'un cheveu .
15 09 01 QuébecCityOliver
Jacques Gourde is a stump (poteaux) but I remember this riding in 2011 because I was driving to Ste Croix once a week during the last election. I saw exactly one NDP poster in this riding (in the Lévis part).
This was close because of the orange wave. It spread from Québec City.
The NDP candidate in 2011, Tanya Fredette, was a nobody, to put this in context, the NDP ran Raymond Côté in 2006 and 2008 in this riding. I am sure Tanya lived in Québec City in 2011.
This will be close again and it will be hard for the Cons to hold on to it, Hélène Bilodeau is running for the NDP and is presumably a stronger candidate than Tanya.
Bear in mind that this is bounded by three solid Con seats, Mégantic?L'Érable to the west, Beauce to the south and Lévis to the east. The closest in 2011 was Lévis?Bellechasse. Expect trouble for Blaney if this seat goes orange.
15 08 29 A.S.
Re Spx: actually, the Levis end of the riding byelected a Liberal as recently as 2003--though yeah, the Lotbiniere end is historically pure Socred/Con-friendly 'Quebec Mou'. And I believe Jacques Gourde's close call in 2011 also had something to do with his NDP opponent being less 'poteau' than the party norm; in fact, if we're to go by 2006/8, this is more of a natually 'strong' seat for the Cons, but Gourde struck more of a retiring-backbencher note than Bernier/Paradis/Blaney and in all likelihood took his safety for granted. Maybe he's learned his lesson; however, the Quebec NDP's now in less of a martyring-themselves-to-poteaux position--so, 2011 here could be more of a foretelling of what's in store for other 'safe' QuebecCon seats.
15 08 28 R.O.
This riding was very close in 2011 so its likely to be close this year as well. Jacques Gourde has been mp since 2006 and it was a bloc Quebecois riding before it went cpc. when looking at the candidates Jacques Gourde has the most experience and higher profile than others. However the ndp is popular in Quebec and doing as well is they did last election , the bloc Quebecois remains a factor in many ridings and its difficult to tell how well they do. I'm predicting conservative although I'd say for now this riding is too close to call
Cette circonscription a été très étroite en 2011, de sorte que ses chances d'être près de même cette année. Jacques Gourde a été député fédéral depuis 2006 et il a été un bloc Québécois circonscription avant qu'il ne soit rendu cpc. Lorsque l'on regarde les candidats Jacques Gourde a le plus d'expérience et profil supérieur que d'autres. Cependant, le NPD est populaire au Québec et faire ainsi est qu'ils ont fait la dernière élection , le Bloc québécois demeure un facteur dans plusieurs circonscriptions et sa difficile de dire comment ils font. Je suis prédire, mais je recommanderais conservateur dire pour l'instant, cette circonscription est trop étroite pour appeler
15 08 26 Marco Ricci
Yes, it's possible that this riding should be changed to TCTC.
Gourde only narrowly survived in the 2011 Layton Wave, and that was basically only because of a BQ-NDP vote split.
With CPC having fallen in Québec in the new CROP poll to below their 2011 support level, this riding could now be vulnerable.
308 now has this riding down to only a 50% chance of going CPC: (August 25, 2015).
15 08 24 Spx
This is the most vulnerable CPC seat in La Beauce with a mere 800 votes between the CPC and NDP in the last election. With the Bloc bleading again badly and the CPC making no progress, I believe this will be a NDP pick-up.... and i agree with Dr. Bear a LPC prediction is just fantasy, this riding hasn't been red since when .. the 80's or so .. and even then was probably a Social Credit riding altogether.
15 08 21 Balon
Three recent polls - CROP in Quebec, a national Abacus poll, and a Quebec-heavy Leger poll - all have the NDP at 40+ % in the province and the CPC and Bloc in the mid-teens. The CROP poll in particular has the NDP at 45% in the Quebec City region while the CPC are at 23%, LPC at 18% and Bloc at 13%. Kinda looking like a second Orange Crush.
While I assume Lebel and Bernier will win their seats for the Conservatives, with numbers like these, there is almost no chance the other ridings in this area will vote anything but NDP.
15 08 05 Dr. Bear
Changing my prediction from CPC to TCTC. That mild rise in CPC support didn't last and there is serious talk about an NDP government. The NDP came within 1.5% of winning this in 2011. There will be some BQ voters who would rather a nationalist-leaning NDP government over Harper's CPC any day. Are there enough BQ votes to swing this? Hard to say. Never the less, I am not discounting the NDP, even though it is the CPC's riding to lose.
As for a Liberal prediction...that's just crazy-talk.
15 08 03 Justin
It'll be a tight CPC-NDP race but the NDP should take it if the centre-left unites behind the NDP. The decline of the LPC and Bloc increases those chances.
15 05 26 Rarelycomment
Really Gorman, the Liberals in this seat? It might go NDP, but its really, really unlikely (more like fantasy) that the Liberals will jump from single digits to plurality.
15 04 22 R S Gorman
Claude Boucher has a significant high profile being a former Ambassador to Haiti. Gourde is the weakest member of the Conservative Quebec caucus and will need every vote to hold onto this seat. Boucher should win this for the Liberals.
15 03 24 Craig Hubley
Not seeing the cabinet ministers or badly split left vote here from other Quebec ridings with predicted Conservative wins or holds.
It all depends who the NDP runs. In 2011 not all the Bloc voters got the memo to support a federalist party that takes the position that separation can happen on 50%+1. In 2015 they will, and the NDP is the logical left candidate for these Bloc-NDP-Green swing voters to support in this riding.
So I'm not convinced this is going Conservative with Thomas Mulcair more popular in Quebec than Justin Trudeau, and Conservative numbers in the province as a whole in single digits.
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
The weakest link of the CPC Quebec holds in 2011. This one came quite close to being another orange wave casualty. If any of the existing CPC Quebec ridings were to fall, I would predict this one. However, the NDP have yet to name a candidate. If they manage to get a star candidate, they could gain this seat. Barring that, the mild rise in support for the CPC in Quebec will ensure this one stays Tory blue.
15 03 17 JFBreton
Terrain fertile pour les Conservateurs au Québec, sur lequel le PCC et la CAQ ont su bâtir, comme pour la Beauce et Bellechasse-Les Etchemins-Lévis. Dans une lutte à trois ou à quatre, Gourde est avantagé.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster