Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-22 09:39:08

Constituency Profile


Boudreau, Yvon

Genest-Jourdain, Jonathan

Gill, Marilène

Grills, Nathan

Tremblay, Mario

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (204/238 polls, 87.82% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jonathan Genest-Jourdain

   (34/238 polls, 12.18% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jonathan Tremblay


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 11 Dr. Bear
Careful with the quick and crazy predictions for the conservatives and/or bloc. Both parties are up in the polls, but they are only polling (at the moment) around what they had on e-day in 2011. They were so far behind in Quebec that they are just now caught up to where they were when they bombed in the province.
15 09 22 A.S.
Whether or not he embellishes his autobiography, JGJ still carries sufficient 'golden boy' aura within the NDP caucus; and given the kind of outerland resource-based territory he represents, it's hard to see constituents choosing otherwise--unless, maybe, Ben Mulroney feels like representing Baie Comeau (ha!). Then again, given they're no longer dealing with a suspended rogue candidate a la 2011, the Liberals might have room for NDP-support-sapping growth in the Anglo outports--but at best tokenly, even if they cracked 41% here in 1997.
15 09 20 Nick M.
The Quebec Ridings need a lot of updating at EPP. It's too bad not many posters take an interest at discussing Quebec ridings.
I'd have no problem wagering $100 000 to win $10 000 that the NDP is gonna win by Atleast 5000 votes.
On paper, NDP wins this. Like many Quebec seats that are clearly going NDP, this is called TCTC. Strange.
15 06 09 Observer
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 03 29 Dr Bear
Barring a rise in BQ support, or a star candidate for either the Liberals or Conservatives, this will stay in the NDP column. I could see the Conservatives targeting here if they start doing really well in Quebec. Until then, they have better targets to hit.
15 03 28 JFBreton
Je mise sur une réélection du NPD, par tassement du vote bloquiste et division du vote. Sans doute une réélection avec une marge réduite cependant.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster